US Politics

US Election Live Blog: Harris concedes race and Trump flips Michigan

US vice president Kamala Harris and president-elect Donald Trump
Harris conceded the election to Trump on Wednesday

Get updates on all the key betting moves from polling day in the 2024 election with Donald Trump a heavy favourite to be crowned the winner

November 7 - 10:00 - Harris concedes as Trump wins fifth swing state

Donald Trump won Michigan to make it five out of five swing states for the president-elect. Votes in Arizona and Nevada are still being counted but Trump is expected to prevail in both.

Michigan was odds-on to go to the Democrats on election day but, as Trump swept to power, the midwestern state flipped from blue to red for only the second time since 1988.

Hours later, Kamala Harris made her concession speech in Washington. The vice president thanked supporters and told them not to despair.

Trump, meanwhile, is expected to start picking his top team for his second term in the White House which will begin when he is inaugurated on 20 January.

Joe Biden spoke to Trump yesterday and is expected to address the US public today, promising a peaceful transition of power.

November 6 - 16:00 - Harris 40/1 to make winning comeback in 2028

Kamala Harris is reportedly working on her election concession speech which she is expected to make this evening at 23:00 BST. She is also likely to call Donald Trump to concede the election.

It is traditional for beaten presidential candidates to make this call, although Trump refused to do so when he lost to Joe Biden four years ago.

While we wait for Harris to make her speech, what are the chances that the vice president will run a successful campaign in 2028?

Pretty slim, according to the Betfair odds, which make Harris 40/141.00 to win in 2028. Her defeat is likely to be heavier than Hillary Clinton's in 2016, so it would be a surprise if the vice president were to run again and win.

That said, if Harris wants inspiration from a presidential candidate who has proved it is possible to come back from defeat and win, she need only look as far as the man she will be calling later today.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Betfair Exchange have now correctly predicted 23 of the last 25 major elections across the world.

"While many may wonder what a fresh Trump presidency will mean for America and the world, the Democrats will be left wondering how they'll ever come back from this.

November 6 - 15:30 - Will Republicans control Senate and House?

With 378 races called, the Republicans are 1/251.04 on the Betfair Exchange to win control of the House of Representatives.

There are, however, still some potentially competitive races to be called among the 57 in which the winner remains unknown.

The current state of play sees the Republicans with 198 and the Democrats on 180. The total required for victory is 217.

The Republicans have already won control of the Senate and, if they can take the House too, it will be much easier for Trump to pass key legislation in his second term.

The Democrats are 7/18.00 on the Betfair Exchange to win control.

When will we know the final results? In 2022, it took more than a week before it was clear which party would control the House of Representatives, so this may be the one election 2024 issue that is not resolved speedily.

November 6 - 13:45 - Vance for president in 2028? The next election market is live

Betfair wasted no time in putting up the market for the next US presidential election. The 2024 edition has been another enormous betting event, with more than £250m wagered on the Betfair Exchange winner market alone, and it could be even bigger in four years.

So who starts as the favourite to win the presidency when Donald Trump completes his second term?

Trump's running-mate JD Vance who will become the youngest ever vice president in January. The 40-year-old only became a senator in 2022 and is on a rapid rise that could take him all the way to the top job.

Vance is 7/24.50 to win the US election in 2028 which will be the first without Trump as a candidate since 2012. Others on the Republican side includ Ron DeSantis 9/110.00, who stood against Trump for the nomination this year, and Tucker Carlson 12/113.00.

On the Democratic side, early contenders include former-first lady Michelle Obama 4/15.00 who had some supporters in the market in 2024.

The Democratic California governor Gavin Newsom 11/26.50 may be eyeing his his party's nomination for 2028. Earlier this year, when Biden was facing calls to stand aside, Newsom was backed by bettors who thought he had a chance of succeeding the current president.

There is a long way to go, and Trump's second term is sure to be uncomfortable. Perhaps the next US president is none of the above and is little known to those outside the world of American politics.

November 6 - 13:00 - Trump romps to victory as Republicans set to win House

The Republcans are 1/81.12 to win control of the House of Representatives after Donald Trump claimed that American voters had given him an "unprecedent mandate" as president.

Trump will become the first US president for over a century to service unconsecutive terms in the White House after he crossed the 270 electoral college votes threshold for victory.

He currently has 277 electoral college votes and looks set to receive more when the results in Arizona, Michigan and Nevada are declared.

Trump scored a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in yesterday's election and is likely to win the popular vote - something he failed to do when elected to the presidency in 2016.

November 6 - 12:00 - Republicans could control Congress as well as Senate

The Republicans are 1/81.12 to win control of the House of Representative (Congress) and need just 19 more race victories to cross the 217 victory threshold.

They have 198 seats, compared to the Democrats' 180.

The Republicans have already won control of the Senate, gaining three seats as the Democrats lost three. If the Republicans can win a majority in Congress too, that will make it much easier for Donald Trump to legislate.

Previous presidents have struggled to pass bills without commanding majorities in both houses. But Trump looks set to take office for his second term with Republicans controlling both houses.

Trump, whose victory was confirmed when he won Wisconsin this morning, will be inaugurated for his second term on 20 January.

November 6 - 10:45 - Trump wins swing state Wisconsin to pass 270 threshold

Donald Trump won the swing state of Wisconsin to cross the 270 electoral college votes threshold to confirm that he will be the next US president.

At 78, he will be the oldest person to ever become president and the first convicted criminal to take America's highest office.

Kamala Harris is yet to concede but, with a third swing state in the bag for Trump, it is almost inevitable that she will now do so.

Wisconsin was a crucial state for Harris's bid to win the election - part of her planned blue wall - and she was odds-on to take it yesterday.

Trump has pulled off an upset in the midwestern state and it would now be no surprise if he were to win all seven swing states. He took Georgia and North Carolina last night. The Republicans are heavy odds-on to win Arizona, Michigan and Nevada.

The Betfair Exchange, where Trump became the favourite last month, has now correctly predicted 23 of the last 25 major elections.

November 6 - 10:15 - Trump on verge of 270 threshold

Donald Trump is within one state of victory of the 270 electoral college votes threshold required for victory in he US election.

His victory is assure and it will be confirmed when the next state is called for Trump. It could be Wisconsin, one of the seven swing states that was destined to decide the 2024 US presidential election.

The midestern state is said to be close to declaring and Trump is leading.

A massive £179m of the £250m bet on the US election winner market was placed on a Trump victory.

November 6 - 09:00 - White House race ends in huge 24 hours on Exchange

Donald Trump is on course for an historic US election victory. Counting is still underway but, when it is all over, the former-president is likely to have received the most votes of any candidate ever.

More than £67m was bet on the Betfair Exchange US election winner market in the past 24 hours and almost £55m of it was on Trump.

He is set to win the US election by a bigger margin than in 2016 and is all but certain to triumph in both the popular vote and the electoral college.

Eight years ago, Trump won the presidency but failed to win the popular vote. This time he appears to have done both. It is a remarkable result and an extraordinary comeback for the man who can now legitimately claim to be America's next president.

November 6 - 08:00 - Race for White House is over on Betfair Exchange

Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States after major news outlets called the election for the Republican and he became unbackable in the Betfair Exchange winner market.

Trump is also 1/1001.01 to win the popular vote which he failed to do in 2016 and which Kamala Harris was odds-on to achieve yesterday.

There are still plenty of results yet to be confirmed from state races so follow all the latest here. At the time of writing, Trump has 266 electoral college votes which means he is just four from the 270 required to confirm victory.

As reported below, Trump became the favourite to win the US election on the Exchange last month and has stayed there ever since.

The Betfair Exchange has now correctly predicted 23 of the last 25 major worldwide elections.

Trump will become only the second US president, after Grover Cleveland in the 19th-century, to serve two non-consecutive terms in the White House.

November 6 - 07:00 - Betfair Exchange predicts 23rd of 25th major election

Donald Trump's impending victory as the new President of the United States was predicted by punters on the Betfair Exchange back in early October.

It was the 10th of the 10th month when Trump became odds-on favourite for the White House, a position he would not relinquish from that moment on.

The Exchange has now correctly predicted 23 of the last 25 major worldwide elections.

Watch Sam analyse the night that was over the US, and read his latest analysis piece on Betting.Betfair right here, as over £250m was matched on the Election Winner market.

November 6 - 06:30 - Election called for Trump, Republican candidate can no longer be backed on the Exchange

Betfair Exchange customers can no longer back Donald Trump to win the election after he was called the winner by the Press Association.

On a night of relentlessly tumbling odds, Trump was called the winner at around 06:20am UK time.

By the time he was called the winner just over £178,000,000 of the £250,000,000 traded was on Trump.

The highest odds he has touched in the betting is 21.020/1

November 6 - 06:10 - Almost a quarter of a billion matched on Betfair Exchange

Punters on the Betfair Exchange say the race to White House is over - as almost quarter of a billion has been staked on US Election. Donald Trump is the 1/1001.01 favourite to win, giving him a blockbuster 99% chance of winning a second term in office.

Kamala Harris is distant at 100/1101.00 - now giving her just a 1% chance of winning. Indeed, Donald Trump is the heavy favourite to win all seven swing states - yesterday he was behind in two and the favourite in only five.

Betfair spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "As votes are still being counted, it looks like the punters have decided on their result - and it's a big Trump win.

"He's being heavily backed to win all seven swing states, there's a good chance that this could be a landslide if things go the way the punters are predicting.

"He's even now the heavy favourite to win the popular vote, something he didn't do in 2016, despite winning the most electoral college votes.

"Kamala Harris has a lot to do to turn this around, but we're still waiting on more results in the rust belt and sun belt swing states, but as she is out to an unprecedented 69/1, and her chances are looking incredibly slim.

"In 2016, Donald Trump was as big as 12/1 overnight when he overcame the odds to win, while four years ago, Joe Biden drifted out to 4/1 before turning things around.

"If Harris wins from this position then it will be the biggest ever comeback in US Election history on the Betfair Exchange."

November 6 - 05:42 - Georgia called for Trump

Another swing state has gone to the Republicans with Georgia and its 16 Electoral College votes called for Trump.

His Election Winner odds currently sit at 1/331.03. Harris is 26/127.00.

The Electoral College will almost certainly go Trump's way in a one-sided victory as the Betfair Predicts graphic shows.

November 6 - 05:05 - Trump hits lowest odds possible on Betfair Exchange

Donald Trump has hit the lowest odds possible on the Betfair Exchange as Kamala Harris' routes to victory look ever more improbable.

The 2016 winner now has a 99% chance of returning to the White House for a second term according to the Betfair Exchange.

Kamala Harris at the time of writing is 49/150.00 to turn this around in what would be the greatest ever comeback in Betfair Exchange history.

You can find more visual graphs of how the Betfair Exchange is predicting the outcome of the 2024 election race here on Betfair Predicts, including how each of the six remaining swing states are leaning.

November 6 - 04:45 - Harris comeback would be biggest ever in Exchange history

Betfair Political expert Sam Rosbottom provides the latest update in the video below on how short Donald Trump now is to win the 2024 Presidential election.

Watch Sam who is live on the ground in New York discuss how Trump's current state of play compares to that of Hilary Clinton in 2016 - the last time Trump won the Presidency when he was then seen as the underdog.

North Carolina has been called now for the Republicans as the first swing state to land in favour of the Republicans, hence Trump hitting odds as short as 1/331.03 at the time of writing.

November 6 - 04:34 - North Carolina settled for Republicans

The first swing state of the 2024 US election has been settled Donald Trump's way.

North Carolina has gone to the Republicans with 16 electoral college votes going to the GOP.

The Republicans are on course to win more than Electoral College votes in the latest Betfair Predicts graphic.

November 6 - 04:00 - Trump 1/251.04 for presidency

Donald Trump looks almost certain to win the 2024 election, his odds at 04:00am standing at just 1/251.04 on the Betfair Exchange.

That is a 93% chance of winning the election.

For those still hoping for an upset, Hillary Clinton lost the election at short odds but never went lower than 1/121.08.

November 6 - 03:40 - Trump heavy favourite in all seven swing states

Donald Trump wiil be crowned the new President of the USA, that's according to the Betfair Exchange which currently prices up the former President at 1/181.06 - a 95% chance.

Whilst he has been the odds-on favourite for a while now, not many would have predicted such an easy path to the White House for what we are seeing at the time of writing.

Trump is now heavy odds-on in all seven swing states according to Betfair Predicts, which makes him a huge favourite to clean up the election by a landslide.

Take a look at the latest swing state projections according to the Betfair Exchange, which doesn't read well for Kamala Harris, priced up as big as 17/118.00 to turn this around.

November 6 - 03:10 - Trump very likely to win election and marginal favourite for popular vote

Donald Trump is set for a huge win in the 2024 Presidential Election.

Trump is rated 'very likely' to win the election with his odds standing at 1.132/15 on the Betfair Exchange. Check the Betfair Predicts graphic below to see where Exchange customers rate his chance.

And in a stunning turn-around he is also favoured to win the Popular Vote having been a long-term outsider. Harris had been a very strong favourite to win the Popular Vote, touching 1.222/9 in the betting.

Betfair spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "While it's still early and there are still millions of votes to be counted, the odds are overwhelmingly in favour of Donald Trump now, and he's being heavily backed to win all seven swing states, there's a good chance that this could be a landslide if things go the way the punters are predicting.

"He's even now gone favourite to win the popular vote, something he didn't do in 2016, despite winning the most electoral college votes.

"Kamala Harris has a lot to do to turn this around, but we're still waiting on more results in the rust belt and sun belt swing states, but she's now out to 8/1, and her chances are looking incredibly slim."

November 6 - 02:30 - State by state results called here

Donald Trump has taken an early lead in the 2024 Presidential race - as expected - and you can see which states have been called right here.

Each state has an Electoral College amount of votes to go toward the desired 270 number either candidate is seeking to be crowned the winner.

You can read how many votes each state has, and in turn how that affects the overall picture.

Donald Trump's early lead has him currently projected to win 297 Electoral College votes according to the Betfair Predicts page, for which data is pulled from the Betfair Exchange.

November 6 - 01:39 - Trump's odds at shortest ever

Donald Trump has hit his lowest odds yet in the Betfair Exchange election winner market.

Prior to polling day he had never been below 1.42/5 in the betting.

But around 01:40am GMT Trump touched 1.374/11 with early results favouring a Republican win.

A Trump win is now considered 'likely' on the Betfair Predicts website.

November 6 - 00:59 - Trump's odds shorten dramatically following Georgia poll

The latest election winner odds show Donald Trump at his shortest price since July.

The former President is now 1/2 to win the election after a revealing exit poll which shows him winning in Georgia.

Kamala Harris odds have drifted to 2/1, her longest odds since Joe Biden stepped down.

November 6 - 00:27- Pennsylvania odds closing

The Republicans have been ahead in Pennsylvania for some time but the odds have tightened in recent minutes.

At the time of writing the Republicans are 10/111.91 with the Democrats even money.

Pennsylvania is considered the key swing state with 19 electoral college votes and the winning party will likely win the election.

November 5 - 23:40 - Trump hits 4/51.80 in brief market move

Donald Trump's chances of winning the 2024 US election have drifted in the last 10 minutes and for a brief moment his chances of winning were out to 55% - from 60%.

That's because on the Betfair Exchange, the former President's odds moved from 5/81.62 all the way out to 4/51.80 before settling back down around 5/71.71, highlighting just how close the race looks to be.

Kamala Harris meanwhile, at the time of writing, hit as low as 6/52.20 - her shortest price of the day by far - before being pushed back out to 7/52.40.

The race remains too close to call.

November 5 - 23:20 - Man City form ominous for Harris?

In other news, Manchester City lost 4-1 at new Manchester United's manager Ruben Amorim Sporting tonight in the Champions League, their third straight loss in all competitions.

Why is that relevant to tonight's US election? Well, it is the first time it has happened since April 2018, when Donald Trump was last in office.

Will the two events be intertwined once again? Well, at the time of writing, Donald Trump is 4/61.67 to win the election once again, and whilst that keeps him as the favourite in this race over 6/42.50 Kamala Harris, his odds have slightly drifted over the last few hours.

November 5 - 23:00 - Trump favourite after more than £6m bet in four hours

There is a long way to go but if the past few hours are anything to go by US election night will be momentous on the Betfair Exchange.

More than £6m was bet on the election winner market in four hours as Donald Trump 8/52.60 (61.5%) retained his lead over Kamala Harris 8/52.60 (38.5%) in the betting.

As mentioned in the previous update below, the market on Pennsylvania was quick to react when Trump made allegations of cheating in the swing state and bettors moved to back the Democrats in to 6/52.20 (45%).

The next few hours should see more movement in the Betfair Exchange markets as voting closes in some states, exit polls and other indicators start to emerge.

To make the most of that you will want to read Paul Krishnamurty's guide to betting in-play on US election night.

November 5 - 22:30 - Pennsylvania betting tightens after Trump's "cheating" claim

US election night has barely begun and there are several hours of voting still to go in many states but Donald Trump is already making allegations of cheating.

The former-president took to X (formerly Twitter) to say he was hearing rumours of cheating in Pennsylvania, the swing state that many experts believe will decide the outcome of the race for the White House.

Trump is the 4/51.80 (55%) favourite to win in Pennsylvania and Harris is 6/52.20 (45%). That's a slightly closer market than earlier in the evening.

Do Trump's allegations, which some believe are designed to put people off voting in Pennsylvania, indicate that he is worried that he could lose the state?

The polls say Pennsylvania is on a knife-edge and, although the market indicates that Trump should win there, we have seen some movement towards the Democrats since Trump made his allegation of cheating.

It is going to be long night and Pennsylvania is one of the key markets to watch.

November 5 - 22:00 - First states to close voting at midnight UK time

Swing state Georgia will be among the first to close its polling stations when voting ends there at midnight UK time.

Voters in the Peach State have just two hours left to choose between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris and the same goes for Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont.

Trump is 8/151.53 (65%) to win Georgia which the Democrats took by the narrowest margin of any state at the US election four years ago. It has 16 electoral college votes so is a big prize for whoever wins it.

At 15/82.88, it would be a surprise if Harris were to win Georgia but, as with the other six swing states, where voting will end later, the Democrats have put considerable resources into trying to keep it blue.

Trump is the favourite in five of the seven swing states - as the graph shows - but the Nevada market is on a knife-edge and swing in favour of the Democrats earlier this evening.

Here's what time voting will end in the other six swing states. All times are BST.

North Carolina - 00:30

Pennslyvania - 01:00

Michigan - 2am

Wisconsin - 3am

Arizona - 6am

Nevada - 6am

November 5 - 21:00 - Repeat of 2016 on the cards?

Look away Democrats if you don't want to suffer flashbacks to traumatic US elections.

Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote - meaning she got the most votes nationwide - but lost the election due to the US electoral college system.

Two elections on and the Betfair Exchange markets indicate that the same thing could happen to Kamala Harris. She is 30/1001.30 (76%) to win the popular vote but only 8/52.60 (38%) to win the election.

This is exactly what Democrats do not want to see. Not only did it happen to Clinton in 2016 but Al Gore also won the popular vote but lost in the electoral college to George W. Bush in 2000.

You may remember that election took weeks to settle (Florida hanging chads ring any bells?) and the result was ultimately decided in the US Supreme Court. Everyone will be hoping for a swifter outcome in 2024.

November 5 - 20:00 - Georgia and North Carolina count fast

For many of us it has been a long road to election day. We have been counting down the months, weeks and days and now, finally, the blockbuster political event that comes but once every four years is here. You can feel the anticipation and tension in the air and online. Everyone wants to know when we will get a result.

First things first. Americans are still voting and will be for a few hours yet (the East Coast is five hours behind the UK). The size of the country, and its timezones, means there will be no quick way of knowing who has won. This is not the UK where voting across the nation starts at 7am and ends at 10pm with an exit poll that is fairly reliable. This will take much longer than that and some counts could last for days.

To give us some indication of when we might start to get a clearish picture of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is going to win, US election expert Frank Luntz has provided a guide to how long each swing state takes to count the votes.

According to Lutz's guide, we could get the first swing states results from the south. Georgia and North Carolina both count fast. Trump is favourite in both, at 8/151.53 to win Georgia and 40/851.47 to win North Carolina.

It will be fascinating to see if those odds prove to be correct.

But remember - in 2020, the winner of the US election was not declared until the Saturday, four days after voting.

November 5 - 19:00 - Betfair Exchange hits £200m mark with Trump 4/7

Donald Trump is 4/71.57 (a 63% chance) to win a second term as US president after the Betfair Exchange election winner market passed the £200m total bet mark.

Kamala Harris is 13/82.63 (38%) as voters continue to cast their ballots all over America in one of the hardest-fought elections in recent history.

Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "As millions of Americans cast their votes, already we are seeing the key markets move on the Betfair Exchange.

"A whopping £200m has now been bet on this election, with the odds shortening in Donald Trumps favour, he's now 4/71.57, which isn't far off what Joe Biden's chances we're when the polls closed four years ago.

"The Republican has also shortened to win Pennsylvania, the Keystone state that looks pivotal to decide this election, and he is now 5/71.71 to win their 19 electoral college votes."

Read Betting.Betfair's US election live blog right here for more updates,

November 5 - 17:55 - Harris shortens slightly in last hour

Kamala Harris has attracted a bit of support in the last hour on the Betfair Exchange, and the Vice President is now 2.526/4 (from 2.68/5) to win the US Election. Her current odds - equivalent to 6/42.50 as fractional odds - mean she has around a 40% chance of becoming President of the United states once the votes have been counted.

Donald Trump remains favourite at 4/61.67 as we enter the evening here in the UK, but remember, it's still mid-morning in some parts of the USA so there's plenty of voting to be done, which is why you need to follow our live blog, and our X handle - @BetfairExchange - for all the twists and turns throughout the night and into the early hours of tomorrow morning.

November 5 - 17:00 - Trump shortens in two major swing states

Donald Trump has shortened in price in two major swing states which could be crucial in him becoming the president of the USA for a second time.

Trump is now the 2/71.29 favourite (a 78% chance) to win in Arizona and has shortened to 5/71.71 in Pennsylvania (a 58% Chance) to take the state.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said: "Trump's odds have dramatically shortened suggesting he is now the likely winner in the race for the White House.

"Trump was the clear favourite as polls opened this morning but his odds have shortened from 4/6 [58% chance of victory] at around midday (UK time) to 5/8 [62% of victory] now.

"Punters' faith in the former president continues to grow as the Republicans appear to be edging closer to victory in two key swing states - Arizona and Pennsylvania.

"The Republicans are now 2/7 [78% chance] to win in Arizona and 5/7 [58% chance] in Pennsylvania.

"Trump's odds have shortened in both states in the last few hours. He is ahead in five of the seven swing states

"A massive £192 million has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far.

"Four years ago, a staggering £130 million was bet in the 12 hours once the polls closed in the US, and we're bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo."

November 5 - 16:00 - Trump odds-on in five swing states

Donald Trump is the favourite on the Betfair Exchange in five of the seven swing states that could decide the outcome of today's presidential eleciton.

Trump is the favourite at 5/81.62 (a 61.5% chance) to win the presidency, while Kamala Harris is 8/52.60 (38.5%), and those seven states are crucial to both candidates' chances.

The one they are both determined to win is Pennsylvania which voted for Trump in 2016 but switched to Joe Biden four years later. Trump has shortened there today to 5/81.62 (58%) to win.

We will have more updates on the US election betting as it breaks throughout today and tonight.

When results start to come in, the Betfair Exchange markets are likely to react and we could see big movements in the odds reflecting how Harris and Trump are faring.

November 5 - 15:00 - Harris favourite to win popular vote

As Americans go to the polls across all 50 states, Donald Trump is the favourite at 5/81.62 (a 61.5% chance) to win today's US election, while Kamala Harris is 8/52.60 (38.5%).

One area where Harris is the firm favourite, however, is in the Betfair Exchange popular vote winner market. In this market, which is all about who wins the most votes, Harris is 30/1001.30.

Winning the popular vote would be meaningless for Harris, however, if Trump wins the electoral college - the name of the system whereby states are allocated votes on the basis of their size and populations.

Some states have more electoral college votes than others. For example, swing state Pennsylvania has 19 whereas another swing state, Nevada, has only six. To wn the election a candidate needs 270 electoral college votes.

This is why a candidate can win the most votes but still lose the presidency. The last time it happened? To Hillary Clinton in 2016 when the former-first lady won the popular vote but Trump won the electoral college and therefore the presidency.

Harris will be desperate not to suffer the same fate but, at the moment, the Betfair Exchange odds indicate that it is a distinct possibility.

November 5 - 14:15 - Paul Krishnamurty's In-Play Betting Guide

You've just listened to Paul's brief guide on how to follow the US Election results and bet accordingly, and now here it is in more details for you to read.

We're expecting a wild night on the Betfair Exchange, so Paul explains his in-play betting strategies including knowing your basics, setting an opening position, and knowing which experts to follow.

It's going to be a long night, and as Paul says, every vote matters, so whether you're a Trump supporter in the US Election Winner market at his current odds of around 3/51.60, a Harris supporter at just shy of 13/82.63, or you're planning to play in some of Betfair's plethora of other US Election markets, then be sure to give Paul' In-Play Guide a thorough read.

November 5 - 12:55 - How to follow the US election results

Staying up for the US election results tonight? So are we. You will read about all the latest betting news right here.

In the meantime, check out Paul Krishnamurty's guide to following the results as they come in and planning your Betfair Exchange trades accordingly.

Political betting expert Paul has covered several elections for Betfair so watch his guide to US election night 2024.

November 5 - 12:30 - Trump and Harris make final appeals to voters

The road to the White House is long, and it may involve a few more twists, but how did Donald Trump and Kamala Harris conclude their campaigns?

With voting now open in some parts of America on election day, Darren McConachie reports on the last 24 hours, with the latest from Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.

Read Darren's update ahead of what should be a momentous day for US politics.

We will have more updates on the latest US election betting throughout today and tonight.

November 5 - 11:00 - How can you tell if Trump or Harris is winning?

Voting has officially opened on the East Coast so we asked Sam Rosbottom - Betfair's Politics guru who has been on the ground in the US for the last couple of weeks, hitting the swing states - to find out exactly where the election may be won or lost.

He has now penned his findings here, where he explains why a specific country in Wisconsin of just 30,000 voters could be the one to predict who becomes the next President, or why Michigan's Saginaw county has been the breeding ground for late campaigning for both the Democrats and the Republicans.

Pennsylvania - the swing state with the most Electoral College votes - is likely to dictate the result of one of the tightest Presidential races we have ever seen across the Atlantic, and Sam explains how Trump must split the Blue Wall to have chance of returning to office.

Make sure you keep up to date with all today's market moves on the Betfair Exchange here!

November 5 - 09:15 - Trump 4/6 as US election day begins

The big day is finally here as Americans prepare to start voting for their next president in just a few hours.

Donald Trump begins election day as the 4/61.67 favourite, with Kamala Harris 6/42.50, following a massive 24 hours on the Betfair Exchange which saw over £30m bet in the election winner market.

That means Trump has a 60% chance of victory while Harris is a 40% chance. That means the race remains tight.

Most of the £30m wagered in the last 24 hours was on a Trump win with £28,479,785 bet on him claiming a second term in the White House.

The figure was much smaller for Harris, at £3,279,165, but the vice president still has her backers and there are those, including our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty, who believe the odds are wrong and Harris will win.

In total, £185m has been bet on who will win, with £125m of that riding on Trump and £46m for Harris.

We will be updating the live blog with the latest news on the election betting throughout election day and through the night as results start to emerge.

November 4 - 18:20 - Trump gamble sustained throughout final day of campaigning

With just hours to go before we reach polling day, Donald Trump is being backed to win the 2024 US election.

While the weekend saw a gamble on Kamala Harris, the opposite has been true of the last 24 hours.

Trump touched 1.84/5 after favourable polling for the Democrats but has since been backed in to a current 1.684/6.

That puts a Republican win on the cusp of 'likely' on the Betfair Predicts graphic below.

November 4 - 16:00 - Get the state of play on all seven swing states

Kamala Harris is spending all of the final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania where the Democrats are 6/52.20 (45.5%) and the Republicans 5/61.84 (54.5%).

For months Pennsylvania has been talked up as the most important of the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of tomorrow's US presidential election.

Trump won it in 2016 and Biden won it four years later, so the chances are the Keystone State will back the winner in 2024 too. That's why Harris is holding events in the state's towns and cities today as she bids to claim the 19 electoral college votes that are up for grabs there.

It seems strange to think that there may be any undecided voters still to be persuaded in this hard-fought US election but the candidates are not giving up on making last minute gains.

Trump is starting his final day in North Carolina where the Republicans are 1/21.50 (67%) to win , as they did in 2016 and '20 when Trump was the candidate. The southern state hasn't voted for a Democrat since 2008. The Democrats are 15/82.88 (35%) to pull off an upset there.

The former-president is on a whistlestop tour of swing states and will visit Pennsylvania and Michigan - where the Democrats are 8/151.53 favourites - later today.

Read more on the US election swing states eve of voting state of play.

November 4 - 15:00 - Trump shortens in betting as final day begins

Donald Trump shortened to 5/71.71 (58%) on the Betfair Exchange to win the US election as he and opponent Kamala Harris began the final day of campaigning in a race that looks too close to call.

It was a marginal improvement on his chances from this morning's 8/111.73 and Harris - who has the backing of our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty - is 7/52.40.

Trump has been the favourite for three weeks but his odds drifted in the weekend as a fightback in the betting for her coincided with encouraging polls for the vice president.

Catch up on yesterday in the respective campaigns for the presidency as Trump and Harris start the final day of trying to win votes in the swing states.

November 4 - 12:45 - Paul Krishnamurty says Back Harris to win US election

Is the Betfair Exchange market wrong to make Donald Trump 8/111.73 (58%) the favourite to win the US election? Paul Krishnamurty thinks so and recommends backing Kamala Harris 11/82.38.

Paul, who has been writing about US politics for Betting.Betfair since the Obama era, makes the argument in his election verdict exclusive:

"My default thinking over the past four years has been that it would be much harder for any Democrat to repeat the 81.3M votes which gave Joe Biden a narrow electoral college victory, simply on the grounds of being the incumbent. That's without a far from perfect record in office or embarrassing late switch of candidates.

"On the other side, I haven't shifted from a nine-year belief that Trump is the single worst candidate for winning converts and the centre ground which determine elections. That MAGA is fundamentally a losing brand. That a less divisive, conventional Republican would always fare better. An election they should win, is far from certain."

Read the full article to find out why Paul believes Harris will win the US election.

November 4 - 09:15 - Trumps drifts and Harris resurgent on eve of election

Donald Trump is 8/111.73 (a 58% chance) after the race for the White House tightened across a weekend that saw £45m bet on the Betfair Exchange US election markets.

Kamala Harris rallied in the election winner market and is 11/82.38 with one day to go before America picks its next president.

Earlier, Trump drifted to 4/51.80 and Harris shortened to 5/42.25. The market moves followed weeks of momentum for Trump as bettors backed him to win a second term as president.

However, in the final days before the election, punters started to get behind Harris. Some of these moves followed a shock poll at the weekend that put Harris ahead in Iowa which the Republicans were expected to win comfortably.

That said, in the past 24 hours, Trump received by far the most money in the market, with bettors backing him to the tune of £21,688,420 , dwarfing the £2,766,970 bet on Harris.

We will have more US election updates throughout what is sure to be another big day in the Betfair Exchange markets.

November 3 - 16:00 - US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Wisconsin

Throught the last few weeks Cai Wilshaw has been focussing on the key swing states that are vital to determining the outcome of next month's US Election, and today he brings us his final spotlight.

Cai takes a look at Wisconsin, which has previously been considered a shoo-in for the Democrats. However, the betting suggests a much tighter contest this time around with the Democrats slight favourites at 8/111.73 and the Republicans at 11/82.38.

You can read Cai's Wisconsin focus in full here.

Meanwhile, in the US Election Winner market Kamala Harris continues to be backed. She was supported from 6/42.50 down to 5/42.25 into Sunday morning, and that support has continued throughout the day. Harris is now 6/52.20 on the Betfair Exchange with Donald Trump's odds continuing to slide, now out to 5/61.84.

November 3 : 12:15 - Paul Krishnamurty Update: Harris could resume favouritism soon

Betfair markets exploded into life late last night, with a significant move for Kamala Harris. The driver was that bombshell Iowa poll from the highly respected Ann Selzer, and it seems there is more good news for the Democrats.

In the pivotal state of Pennsylvania, A-rated local pollster Muhlenberg College record Harris 2% ahead. This follows a 3% lead with YouGov, 2% with Marist, and a tie with Suffolk. Granted, there are other polls but these are the highest rated polls. The sample in both the Muhlenberg and Marist surveys was slightly skewed to Republicans, too. Coupled with the early voting data signals from PA, I make her the favourite in that state now. And whoever wins Pennsylvania is hot favourite for the presidency.

Why does Selzer matter so much? Well, see below for her record. But more widely, Iowa is seen as a good guide to the Mid-West. There is a historic correlation between the Hawkeye State and Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Particularly Wisconsin, with its higher share of white, rural voters.

Is Iowa in play? Well that poll suggests so but note Harris was only on 47% and there are 9% undecideds. She has come right down in the betting there to 4.3100/30 but I still need a lot of convincing. In the 50/50 race which seemed the case, I have Trump's advantage in the state around 10%. If its down at 5% or less,it suggests he has a big problem with white voters, and perhaps rural voters, which would point to a comfortable Harris victory via the electoral college.

If you are backing Harris today, the best way to do so is as outsider in the outright market. I have been rebuilding my Harris position over the past 24 hours, as all this news drops, and will write a more substantial piece later.

November 3 - 09:20 - Trump's odds on the slide

A dramatic day on the Betfair Exchange has seen more than £10m bet on the Election Winner market alone - and Donald Trump's odds take a walk.

As we awake on the final Sunday before the election, Trump stands at 1.814/5 on the Betfair Exchange - equivalent to odds of 4/51.80 - while Kamala Harris can be backed at 2.26/5, or fractional odds of 6/52.20. That puts the race into 'Too close to call' territory in the below Betfair Predicts graphic.

Trump had been backed as low as 1.538/15 earlier in the week, just shy of 1/21.50.

A shock poll put the Democrats ahead in Iowa which may point to wider Dem support across the country.

You can read the headlines from the Betfair markets here.

November 2 - 16:30 - Trump remains favourite on final weekend before election

As Americans begin to wake up on the final weekend before Tuesday's US Election, Donald Trump remains favourite to become the President of the United States for a second time.

Former president Trump is 1.674/6 on the Betfair Exchange - equivalent to fractional odds of 4/61.67 - but Kamala Harris has dipped under 2.56/4 once again. The Vice President is 2.486/4 currently to win the election.

Around £5m has been traded on the Winner market alone since this morning's 9am update.

November 2 - 12:10 - Republicans slight favourites in key swing state

The Republicans are 1.875/6 on the Betfair Exchange - just slightly shorter than 10/111.91 - to win Pennsylvania, a key swing state that Betfair's Sam Rosbottom says is being tipped to decide the outcome of Tuesday's US Election.

In his latest blog update Sam says, "Known as the Keystone State, Pennsylvania holds significant importance for candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. As one of the pivotal swing states, Pennsylvania's voting outcomes are tipped to be the deciding factor in the election."

The Democrats are the slight outiders at around 11/102.11 to win Pennsylvania. You can read Sam's latest update in full here.

November 2 - 09:00 - Over £10m traded on Trump alone in one day

Donald Trump remains the favourite to win Tuesday's US Election as over £10m was wagered on him in a single day.

The former president is 4/61.67 on the Betfair Exchange to return to the White House with arch rival Kamala Harris second favourite at around 6/42.50.

In total, over £12m was wagered on all Betfair's US Election markets in the 24 hours leading up to Saturday morning.

November 1 - 18:00 - Paul Krishnamurty Update: Positive news for Harris where it matters most

Kamala Harris has slightly moved forward in the betting over the past 24 hours and there is an obvious explanation. Simply, updates from high-quality pollsters from the most important states.

If she wins Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she almost certainly wins the electoral college. Marist - A+ rated and ranked sixth in Fivethirtyeight rankings - released numbers showing Harris ahead in all three states by 2% plus margins.

The Harris campaign in Michigan will also have been buoyed by numbers from Fox and CNN, which show third parties (particularly RFK Jr.) hurting Trump more, yielding leads ranging from +2 to +5. CNN's latest series were very pro-Harris and are probably an outlier, but a 6% lead in Wisconsin is worth reporting.

Likewise as discussed earlier, the early voting in these three key states is promising for Harris, if far from decisively so. Following CNN's polls showing Democrats leading big among those who have already voted, Politico have dug a little deeper and emphasize the swing in support among seniors towards Harris.

The betting has responded in each state, with Harris moving to 1.674/6 for Michigan, 1.9620/21 for Wisconsin and 2.226/5 for Pennsylvania. The first and third of those are among my seven election bets series.

The importance of remembering the electoral college calculations cannot be overstated. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he is around 90-95% sure of victory. If Harris wins, her chance is probably around 75%.

Therefore, if the state of the Pennsylvania race changes, the outright odds should move accordingly and sharply. Look out for a final NYT/Siena poll. When they last polled PA over three weeks ago, Harris led 49-45. Likewise, Muhlenberg College are A-graded and on home turf. Anything similar could transform the betting.

Finally, a quick word about pollsters. These aren't the only polls of the key states. A fuller list can be found on Fivethirtyeight or Wikipedia. However, in an attempt to sort the wheat from the chaff, I'm restricting calculations to the top-20, ranked by performance.

November 1 - 16:51- Read Adam Boulton on the unheralded state that could play a big role

We all know by now that the swing states are going to play a huge role but if this election is really close, might Nebraska suddenly become all-important?

Legendary British Journalist Adam Boulton explains all in his final column before the 2024 US Election. You can read the article in full here.

November 1 - 16:00 - Paul Krishnamurty on early voting in US election

Donald Trump continued to trade at 6/42.50 and Kamala Harris at 4/61.67 on Friday afternoon, following the moves in the Betfair Exchange US election market earlier in the day that indicated the race was getting tighter.

Now Paul Krishnamurty has provided an in-depth look at what early voting in the US election tells us about the potential outcome.

Paul writes: "At this late stage in the process, it is worth reflecting on what we are actually betting on. More than 60 million people have already voted - well over a third of the eventual tally. Of the remainder, 5% at most are genuinely persuadable.

"This isn't like a sporting event, where the outcome hinges on the performance of players and execution of tasks. Virtually everybody who seriously intends to vote will do so, and very few of those will change their mind. If we could accurately measure the numbers of these people and which way they swing, we would know the result.

"So in effect, we are betting on that - the composition of the electorate. Towards which, polls are a useful, yet flawed, guide. As explained earlier, there are at least five ways in which the polls could be systemically wrong, and the effects could work to either Trump or Harris's advantage."

Read the full article here.

November 1 - 13:30 - Harris closes gap on Trump

The US election winner market on the Betfair Exchange tightened as the countdown to Tuesday's election continues.

Kamala Harris shortened to 6/42.50 (a 40% chance of victory) on Friday morning and, while Donald Trump is still the odds-on favourite, his price of 4/61.67 leaves him looking less unassailable than 24 hours ago.

The US election campaign has been one of the hardest fought ever and the latest movement in the Betfair markets indicate we could be in for more drama before America decides.

Fortunately, our experts should have you well-prepared for whatever happens.

Read Adam Boulton's latest US election article for Betting.Betfair as he discusses the importance of the swing states.

Listen to the third and final Politics...Only Bettor US election podcast below and check out the latest news from the campaign.

November 1 - 10:02 - Final Betfair politics podcast is out now

Listen to our eve of election podcast with just a few days left until polling day.

Former Sky News anchor Adam Boulton is your host whlie Betfair's Sam Rosbottom reports from the US where he has visited three of the swing states. Views from across the poitical spectrum come from The Sun's Harry Cole and The Mirror's Susie Boniface, aka FleetStreetFox.

November 1 - 09:15 - Huge 24 hours on Betfair Exchange

A mega 24 hours in the US election winner market on the Betfair Exchange left Donald Trump as the 5/81.62 (61% chance) favourite but there are signs that Kamala Harris 8/52.60 is mounting a recovery in the betting.

With four days to go until the US election, the vice president's odds of winning next week's election have shortened from yesterday's position.

Trump is still in the driving seat, however, after more than £2.3m was bet on a Trump victory in the past 24 hours.

For Harris the figure was just over £1.7m as the market hotted up on the run-in to election day.

We will have more updates on the US election betting throughout Friday.

October 31 - 16:00 - Polls put Harris and Trump level in Michigan

The Democrats are 8/111.73 on the Betfair Exchange to win Michigan but a new Washington Post poll says Harris and Donald Trump are neck and neck in the swing state.

It says Harris has 47% support among likely voters while Trump has 46% support in the state where there are 15 electoral college votes to be won.

Michigan is a crucial part of Harris's bid to win the White House and has come under scrutiny because it has the largest population of Arab Americans of any state. Many Arab Americans are unhappy about the Biden administration's support for Israel's assaults on Gaza and Lebanon.

Bill Clinton was criticised for crass comments he made when campaigning in Michigan yesterday and there is speculation that some Arab Americans, who have previously voted Democrat, will not turn out for Harris.

And yet the odds indicate that Democrats have a 57% chance of winning Michigan while the Republicans are at 43%. The new poll tells a different story.

The Great Lakes state is the only one of the seven swing states where the Democrats are favourites. They are 1/12.00 in Wisconsin - where Betfair's Sam Rosbottom has been reporting - but the Republicans remain marginal favourites there.

Biden won Michigan in 2020, taking 50.6% of the vote, compared to the 47.8% who voted for Trump. In 2016, Trump won Michigan by fewer than 11,000 votes - a tiny margin in American elections.

October 31 - 12:15 - Back Trump to win 45-48% of vote

Paul Krishnamurty's US election bet of the day reaches its conclusion with a wager on Donald Trump's vote share.

Paul says: "Trump's vote share, or approval rating, does not look a very hard number to quantify. Perhaps no politician in US history divides voters so clearly and permanently. A very large number strongly approve or disapprove, with a smaller number in the middle who invariably fall on the same side anyway.

"In his two elections, Trump earned 46.1% and 46.8% of the popular vote. He is in a better position this time around so that number can be expected to rise but to get beyond 48%, as the current market implies, remains quite a big ask. I cannot envisage any scenario where he gets less than 45% and if that assumption proves correct, today's bet will amount to taking 2.7 about under 48%."

Read the full article here and find out how you could profit.

October 31 - 09:15 - Trump 4/7 favourite with five days to go

With five days to go until the US election, Donald Trump is the firm favourite on the Betfair Exchange at 4/71.57 (a 63% chance) with his opponent Kamala Harris 7/42.75 (36%).

A total of £2,359,570 was bet on a Trump victory in the past 24 hours as punters continued to put their faith in the former-president despite tight polls.

For Harris the figure was £819,267 as she continued to campaign in swing states and make her case to the American people.

We will have more updates on the US election betting throughout today.

October 30 - 16:00 - Swing state Wisconsin to receive both candidates

If you are in Wisconsin and hoping to avoid the US election today, you are out of luck. Both Betfair Exchange election winner market favourite Donald Trump and his rival Kamala Harris will visit the swing state on Wednesday.

They won't cross paths, as the former is in Green Bay while the latter is headed to Madison, but they are both depserate to persuade undecided voters in the Badger State which is one of seven key battle grounds for next week's election.

Wisconsin has 10 electoral college votes and, along with Pennsylvania and Michigan, it is a key part of Harris's potential path to the White House.

Trump won it in 2016 but Joe Biden turned it blue four years later. Now the Republicans are 4/51.80 (a 55% chance of victory) and the Democrats 6/52.20 (45%).

Meanwhile, Betfair's Sophie Moseley has gone in-depth on whether women voters can swing the election for Harris.

Sophie writes: "Harris is going after all women, even the ones in Republican strongholds who would have voted for Trump before. These women will belong to states that are heavily Republican, who will come from families and live in towns with traditional views of gender and harsh views on abortion.

"They are likely to keep their support for Harris secret, but abortion is not an issue to be swept under a rug. If there is anything to turn a would-be female Trump supporter into a Harris voter it would be winning back their freedom."

Read the article here.

October 30 - 13:30 - Head to Michigan for bet of the day

With six days to go until the US election, Donald Trump is the firm favourite on the Betfair Exchange at 8/151.53 (a 64% chance) with his opponent Kamala Harris 9/43.25 (35.5%).

But things are looking up for the vice president in the swing state of Michigan where the Democrats are regained favouritism from Trump. The state, which is one of seven key battlegrounds at next week's election, is the focus of Paul Krishnamurty's bet of the day.

Paul says: "Michigan seems to be turning back towards her. While one should never assume too much about the early vote, the general signals seem positive for Harris. Notably an 11% turnout lead for women. The concerted Democrat campaign, supported by the Obamas and Eminem in Detroit, appears to be working.

"And further positive signs can be found in the polls. YouGov have her 7% up over Trump, on 52%. Susquehanna have the lead at 5%. On the flipside, Emerson have Trump up by 1%. (This respected firm have generally produced better numbers for Trump lately)."

Read the full article and catch up with the rest of Paul's US election best bets.

October 30 - 10:30 - US election polls latest

With six days to go until the US election, Donald Trump is the firm favourite on the Betfair Exchange at 8/151.53 (a 64% chance) with his opponent Kamala Harris 9/43.25 (35.5%).

The polls, however, tell a different story so, for today's US election latest, Cai Wilshaw has taken a deep dive into the polling on Harris v Trump.

He says: "All the polling is indicating an incredibly tight race between the two Presidential candidates. On the 25th of October, the newest CNN/SSRS poll showed Harris and Trump tied - both totting up 47% of likely voters.

"On the 27th of October, CBS News/YouGov had Harris at 50% and Trump at 49%, while slightly more decisively an ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris at 51% and Trump at 47%."

Read the full article to find out more about what the polls tell us about Americans' voting intentions.

October 30 - 09:30 - Trump 8/15 for victory with six days to go

Support for Donald Trump continued to pour into the Betfair Exchange US election winner market and the former-president is now 8/151.53 (a 64% chance) to win with his opponent Kamala Harris 9/43.25 (35.5%).

The latest data from the Betfair Exchange shows that over £3m was bet on a Trump victory in the past 24 hours - more than three times as much as was bet on Harris winning the presidency.

Betfair's Sam Rosbottom said: "Donald Trump has been the favourite to win the US Election on the Betfair Exchange for weeks. Yet in the last 5 days, his advantage has solidified even further.

"He is the runaway favourite with the punters to win the election, at 8/15 odds which give him a 65% chance of winning. Only five days ago, he was 5/7, translating to around a 58% chance.

"Harris is now out to 15/8 or a 36% chance. This is despite a week characterised by celebrity endorsements and rallies, including her closing arguments address in front of tens of thousands of people overnight in Washington DC, on the same site of Donald Trump's infamous speech in 2021, before the January 6 insurrection on the Capitol building.

"Harris will have to pull out all the stops as early voting is well underway and the election in less than a weeks' time. In fact, only Donald Trump has pulled off a comeback this big going into the final days of a US election campaign, back in 2016, when he was 9/2 before the voting closed. "

October 29 - 16:00 - Read Paul Krishnamurty's in-depth US election latest

With one week to go before America chooses its next president, Paul Krishnamurty has gone in-depth on five questions that could settle the election.

He looks at the challenges facing both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and writes:

"In both 2016 and 2020, late deciders broke hard for Trump. That at least partly explains his overperformance compared to the polling averages. Unless high-quality polls emerge showing a shift to Harris, the market is bound to assume Trump's share will pick up late again.

"However, the trend may very well be reversed this time, set against a different context. At the 2022 midterms, late deciders broke hard to the Democrats facing Trumpian Senate candidates in swing states."

One week out from US election day, this is essential read for anyone who wants to understand the 2024 race for the White House. Read it now.

October 29 - 13:00 - Paul Krishnamurty's US election bet of the day

It's part five of Paul Krishnamurty's US election bet of the day and, with one week to go before America chooses Kamala Harris or Donald Trump for president, our expert is recommending a wager in the swing state of Wisconsin.

Paul says: "If Trump is favourite to win the state, and I agree he deserves to be so marginally, then one must think the Republican Senate candidate will get extremely close."

Read the article to find out more and, in case you missed any, catch up on Paul's other US election best bets.

October 29 - 09:15 - Trump 4/7 with one week to go

This time next week it will be election day in America, the candidates will have reached the end of their campaigns for the presidency and tens of millions will be on their way to polling stations around the US.

Who will win? The Betfair Exchange odds indicate that things are looking good for Donald Trump. He is 4/71.57 (a 63% chance) in the election winner market.

Kamala Harris is 7/42.75 (36%) and has seen much of the momentum she generated earlier in the campaign dry up.

In fact, Trumps chances of victory are greater than at an point since Joe Biden left the race in July, according to the Betfair Exchange odds.

As Betfair's Sam Rosbottom explained: "The last time [Trump's] odds were this short was July 20th - before Joe Biden stepped down.

"Crunching the data, Trump's odds are his shortest at this point in the run up to the three elections he has contested. In 2020 he sat at 2/1 odds, with a 34% chance of winning, and in 2016 one week out he had gained on Clinton but was only at 11/4 - a 26% chance - at that point.

"While Trump is in the driving seat right now and no doubt feeling as confident as he ever has, his comeback in 2016 shows anything can happen in the last two weeks of an election. With over £160 million bet across Betfair Exchange markets already we are expecting a huge amount of activity in the coming days as the countdown ramps up in earnest."

October 28 - 17:00 - Today's Bet of the Day from Paul Krishnamurty

Donald Trump is 8/131.61 (62%) on the Betfair Exchange to win the US election but our political betting expert believes there is value in backing his opponent to win the swing state of Arizona.

In the fourth of his US election best bet of the day series, Paul Krishnamurty says: "If there is going to be a big polling miss, or betting upset, in any of the seven swing states, I believe Arizona is the place."

At the last election, Joe Biden became the first Democratic presidential candidate this century to win Arizona.

Read Paul's article to find out why he believes Kamala Harris can upset the odds and become the second when America goes to the polls on 5 November.

October 28 - 13:30 - Madison Square Garden rally brings more controversy to Trump campaign

Donald Trump is 5/81.62 (61.5%) on the Betfair Exchange to win the US election but could Trump's controversial rally at Madison Square Garden, New York have the effect of putting off some voters?

That's the lead item in today's update from Darren McConachie who has discussed the events of the past 24 hours for both campaigns.

Darren wrote: "As the race for the White House approached its final week, Trump held a rally at Madison Square Garden in New York to address a crowd of supporters. He probably hadn't thought that when he went there his fiscal policy would be overshadowed by racist tropes from a comedian who seemed desperate to find the shock value in every gag."

To find out what happened, how it could affect the race and to get the latest news from the Harris campaign, read the full article here.

October 28 - 09:15 - Second Trump presidency is 5/8 on Betfair Exchange

Donald Trump is 5/81.62 (61.5%) on the Betfair Exchange to win the US election in eight days and his opponent Kamala Harris is 8/52.60 (38.5%) as the candidates enter the final full week of campaigning.

The former-president has been the favourite for three weeks even as polling puts him level with Harris.

As betting activity ramps up in the Betfair Exchange US election winner market, punters continue to put their money on a Trump victory, although Harris still has plenty of supporters.

This has been one of the closest US election build-ups ever on the Betfair Exchange but Trump has dominated the markets in recent weeks.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, said: "Trump remains the heavy favorite with punters after a blockbuster weekend of dueling rallies.

"He was joined at Madison Square Gardens by his wife Melania Trump, who made a very rare appearance at the sellout event. Elon Musk, the world's richest man, joined him once more as he steps up his support.

"Harris was likely hoping for a boost from a string of appearances with Barack and Michelle Obama, as well as Beyoncé on Friday night in Houston.

"Yet it did nothing to boost her chances. She remains distant at 8/5 odds of winning, giving her a 38% chance. How will Democrats try to regain the advantage with what little time is left for the campaigns?"

As the candidates enter their final full week of campaigning, Trump will be hoping that market is correct to make him favourite, while Harris is aiming to upset the odds and become America's first woman president.

October 27 - 16:15 - Trump remains 4/6 fav as weekend comes to a close

We conclude the weekend almost exactly as we started it with Donald Trump the 4/61.67 favourite to win next month's US Election. Kamala Harris remains at 13/82.63.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk has again backed Trump, and told voters in Pennsylvania to go out and vote in person rather than mail in their votes as that was a "recipe for fraud".

As we reported earlier, in Michigan Michelle Obama had some harsh words on Trump, questioning why he always seems to get an easy ride.

You can read all the latest news in Darren McConachie's daily update, which can be found here.

October 27 - 12:30 - Today's Bet of the Day from Paul Krishnamurty

Political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty is on to his third day of providing Betfair readers with his 'best bet of the day' and today he's focussing on Donald Trump once again.

Our man believes that backing the former president to win 270-299 Electoral College Votes at 4.03/1 on the Betfair Exchange is the way to go.

You can read Paul's full reasoning, and all his best bets of the day, here.

October 27 - 09:30 - Former first lady accuses Trump of having an easy ride

Michelle Obama accused Donald Trump of having an easy ride on Saturday, asking Michigan rally-goers why Kamala Harris was being held to a higher standard than her US Election opponent.

The former first lady cited Trump's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and his efforts to cling to power after losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, saying, "I hope you'll forgive me if I'm a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump's gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn."

Saturday marked the first day that early in-person voting became avialable across Michigan, a swing state that the Democrats at 10/111.91 to win on the Betfair Exchange. The Republicans can be backed at 11/102.11.

October 26 - 16:30 - US Election Swing States: Spotlight on North Carolina

We have another swing state focus for you now, with Cai Wilshaw turning his attention to North Carolina.

It's a state that is expected to go the way of the Republicans, who are 1/21.50 on the Betfair Exchange to win North Carolina. The Democrats can be backed at 15/82.88.

You can read Cai's North Carolina focus in full here.

Meanwhile, there's been a bit of support for Kamala Harris to win the US Election this afternoon, she's come in from 2.68/5 this morning to 2.56/4 at the time of this update.

October 26 - 12:30 - US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Pennsylvania

Throught the last few weeks Cai Wilshaw has been focussing on the key swing states that are vital to determining the outcome of next month's US Election.

Today Cai takes a look at Pennsylvania, which is considered as the ultimate swing state that could go a long way to deciding the outcome of the election. The market has swung in favour of the Repubicans in recent weeks, available to back at 4/51.80 on the Betfair Exchange. The Democrats can be backed at 5/42.25.

You can read Cai's Pennsylvania focus in full here.

October 26 - 11:15 - Today's Bet of the Day from Paul Krishnamurty

Political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty continues his best bets of the 2024 Presidential election, and today it's Kamala Harris in the spotlight

You can read his piece here, as Paul explains why backing Harris to win the key swing state of Pennsylvania at 5/42.25 on the Betfair Exchange is today's best bet.

October 26 - 09:45 - Trump shortening in Popular Vote Winner market

We've reached the penultimate weekend before this year's US Election and Donald Trump remains very strong in the Winner market. He's currently available to back at 1.645/8 on the Betfair Exchange, which is just a tad shorter than 4/61.67.

Kamala Harris is the 13/82.63 second favourite, but what might have gone slighty under the radar in recent weeks is the support for Trump in the Popular Vote Winner market.

Having been available to back at 22/123.00 at the start of the year, and at around 9/25.50 following his head-to-head TV debate with Harris around six weeks ago, the former president is now down to 15/82.88 to win this market also. Harris, who has been matched at a low of 2/91.22, remains the favourite at 1/21.50.

To get the most up to date prices and volume of money matched, check out our US Election data blog from around 8am every morning.

October 25 - 16:00 - Trump leads Harris ahead of weekend

On a day where Bruce Springsteen has thrown his weight behind Kamala Harris, Donald Trump remains the clear odds-on favourite to win the 2024 Presidential election.

It is set to be a blockbuster weekend of campaigning for the two candidates, and it is the Democrats who are wheeling out the big guns in different places.

Beyonce will also come out to inspire voters to go blue, with Michelle Obama following in the footsteps of husband Barack by taking to the stage this weekend also.

Harris does need a shift in the momentum as she currently has a 38% chance of winning according to the Betfair Exchange's odds, a stark contrast from her odds-on status earlier this month.

Donald Trump is heading into the weekend as the 4/61.67 favourite to end up in the White House once again, a clear advantage with around a 60% chance of success.

This weekend may well prove to be a pivotal one in the market, so make sure you are across our social channels and live blog to stay up to date as we tell - and show - you the story of the 2024 US election.

October 25 - 12:00 - Harris gains on betting markets in the week that was

Kamala Harris has moved from having a 38% chance of winning the election to a 40% chance after weeks behind Trump on Betfair Exchange.

In the past the "Obama Effect" has boosted Harris, and the question is will Beyoncé do the same on Friday night?

This week saw election winner market hit £100m total wagered, with £4.2m on Wednesday alone.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, said: After weeks of being behind in the betting markets, things may have started to improve for Harris with 11 days to go. The race is tightening...

She is currently at 6/42.50 odds, still giving her a 40% chance of winning the election.

Trump has gone to 4/61.67 - giving him a 60% chance of winning. Earlier this week he had as much as a 63% chance;.

This comes as Harris brings out her biggest hitters yesterday and over the weekend. Bruce Springsteen and Barack Obama appeared with her in Georgia last night, and tonight will see Beyonce headline in her native Houston, with Harris too.

Michelle Obama takes the stage on Saturday, followed by Springsteen again on Monday.

In the past the Obamas have had an effect on Harris' chances.

On the Betfair Exchange it has been a record week. It saw the election winner market hit £100m total wagered, with £4.2m on Wednesday alone - which is likely to build significantly up until the election, sitting at £103m today.

October 25 - 10:00 - Read Paul Krishnamurty's latest piece

Political betting expert Paul Krishnamurty has kicked off his best bets of the 2024 Presidential election, and you don't want to miss the opening wager.

You can read his piece here, as Paul explains why it might now be time to invest in Donald Trump, especially in a market that offers the Republican at a bigger price than his current 4/61.67 odds on the Betfair Exchange.

It is starting to feel a little bit 2016.

October 25 - 09:00 - Trump remains 'likely' to win with swing state position

Donald Trump opened up at 4/61.67 on the Betfair Exchange this morning, indicating a 60% chance of winning the 2024 US election.

His short price could be the fact that currently all seven swing states are now looking red, the key battlegrounds in where the election will be won and lost.

Kamala Harris remains the outsider at 6/42.50 and her price indicates she has work to do across the board.

You can find the latest Betfair Exchange data here for how the last 24 hours has played out, whilst keep yourself coming back here for today's daily updates from our key politics writers, significant odds move and more on the 2024 Presidential election.

October 23 - 17:08 - Get the latest from Betfair Sam ahead of swing state tour

Betfair's Sam Rosbottom is in the US for the countdown to the 2024 election and has filed his latest from Washington DC.

Sam reveals what voters on the ground have told him, gives us the latest from the swing state betting and muses on the potential Beyonce effect as the singer prepares to endorese Kamala Harris.

Read the full article here.

October 23 - 12:58 - Exchange election winner market passes £100m

More than £100m has now been wagered on Betfair Exchange's US Election winner market alone.

Wednesday saw the highest amount wagered on the market since the 2020 election finished, with £4.2m bet in 24 hours, twice the previous day's amount

Donald Trump remains the favourite at odds of 4/61.67 - or a 58% chance of winning - Harris has trailed for weeks and sits at 6/42.50 or 42% chance

October 23 - 09:30 - Small drift on Trump with less than two weeks to go

Donald Trump drifted slightly in the election winner market on the Betfair Exchange yesterday but still remains the favourite.

The Republican candidate sits at odds of 5/71.71 having been 8/131.61. Kamala Harris has moved in to 7/52.40 having been 8/52.60 on Wednesday morning.

Our man sam Rosbottom explain the move in our latest video...

You can read all the latest in our daily update of the big election markets here.

October 22 - 18:00 - Paul Krishnamurty Update: Appearing on Joe Rogan could help Trump juice male turnout

The closing stretch of this US election is unlike previous ones in multiple ways, but most importantly because voters will not get another opportunity to make a direct head-to-head contrast between the principals. Trump swerved the offer of a second TV debate, along with several mainstream media appearances, such as 60 Minutes. Tonight Kamala Harris will do a live Town Hall event on CNN. Again, Trump swerved the same offer.

This is a continuation of the unconventional strategy I discussed earlier in this blog. In theory, it leaves the floor clear for Harris to excoriate him unchallenged and mock him for running away from scrutiny. We can surely expect her to raise the report that Trump's former Chief of Staff John Kelly labelled him a fascist, would-be dictator, who praises Hitler.

The incident offers yet another opportunity to win over the sizeable minority of Republican voters who don't like Trump's character. Who voted for Nikki Haley in primaries even after she had withdrawn. Who are open to listening to the dozens of senior Republicans and former Trump administration officials, who are campaigning for Harris. This group of voters will turn out in huge numbers and could very well prove to be the decisive cohort.

Whilst swerving CNN, Trump is recording an interview for the Joe Rogan Experience. This is a big deal given Rogan's popularity and is consistent with the campaign theme of pursuing male voters, especially younger ones more averse to legacy media. Evidently, this is the cohort that Trump thinks will push him over the line, among whom turnout has the potential to grow considerably. Again, this could prove a decisive factor.

Reportedly, Harris wants to appear on this hugely successful podcast too but there are no reports as yet that an appearance will materialise. I have huge doubts that Rogan or those around him would want to give her that opportunity, but we will see.

Given that Trump's bizarre campaign has so far caused him no damage, I have to conclude these respective events will favour him. The audience for Rogan will surely dwarf that of CNN, and those numbers grown exponentially via sharing on social media. The indication from polls seems to be that the old rules of politics, media and discourse simply don't apply.

October 23 - 16:45 Monmouth Poll gives Kamala betting boost

A nationwide poll has given Kamala Harris' campaign a boost.

The Monmouth University Poll revealed that just over half (51%) of voters who consider themselves extremely motivated to vote will cast their ballot for Harris. The extremely motivated category is formed of 74% of voters.

Harris also leads Trump 47% to 44% among all registered voters.

That may explain the small move in the election winner betting witnessed earlier today, see below post.

October 23 - 15:56 - Harris media offensive continues with town hall

The first, and only, presidential debate of this campaign was the high point for Kamala Harris so far in her attempts to win this election, at least according to the Betfair Exchange odds.

On that night, Harris flipped the odds, going from outsider to favourite after clearly outperforming Donald Trump in the head-to-head. In subsequent days she went clear of Trump and looked like solidifying that favouritism all the way through to election day.

The Republican candidate shied away from any more encounters with Harris since that bruising night, but that did little to damage his standing with punters. After an initial post-debate drift, Trump's odds gradually shortened until he overtook Harris and has since been favourite.

While Trump has kept to his rallies and friendly media outlets, Harris has been on a media offensive often talking with channels that favour her rival.

And in the absence of a second debate, she will tonight host a town hall on CNN answering questions from undecided voters.

While it will almost certainly not flip the odds like the debate, there has been a small move on Harris in the election winner betting ahead of the town hall.

Midway through the afternoon in the UK, the Democrat candidate's odds moved from 8/52.60 to 6/42.50.

It will be interesting to see if the town hall itself causes any more movement in the betting.

October 23 - 13:03 - Our man Sam goes stateside

Betfair PR guru Sam Rosbottom has crossed the Atlantic to go deep on the 2024 Election.

Our man will travel to three swing states to canvas voters' opinions before spending election day in DC.

He will be supplying content as he goes so stay tuned to Betting.Betfair for all his content over the next two weeks.

October 23 - 09:26 - More than £150m bet on Betfair's election markets

More than £150m has been bet in the Betfair Exchange's US Election markets.

Of that total, just shy of two thirds (£98m) is in the election winner market where Donald Trump remains the 8/131.61 favourite.

Other busy betting markets as we count down to polling day include popular vote winner (more than £3m traded) and winning party (just under £2m bet). Of the state betting markets it is Florida, surprisingly perhaps with the Republicans short odds-on favourites, that has traded the most money,

You can read the latest from our main markets in our daily prices update article here.

October 22 - 16:00 - Trump odds-on as Exchange nears market milestone

Donald Trump is the 8/131.61 (61.5%) favourite to win the US election and holds the advantage in all seven swing states, according to the Betfair Exchange odds two weeks from voting day.

Kamala Harris is 13/82.63 (38.1%).

US elections are huge events on the Betfair Exchange and, as the 2024 markets near the £150m bet mark, the former-president is in the driving seat.

Will he keep the lead all the way until 5 November? Favouritism has changed hands several times so far and Kamala Harris still has plenty of supporters as bettors try to back the candidate who will be America's next president.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom, said: "Crunching the data, Trump's odds are his shortest at this point in the run up to the three elections he has contested. In 2020 he was at odds of around 2/13.00 - a 33% chance of winning, in 2016 two weeks out he looked out of the running with around a 15% chance at that point or odds of around 6/17.00.

"While Trump is in the driving seat right now and no doubt feeling as confident as he ever has, his comeback in 2016 shows anything can happen in the last two weeks of an election. With almost £150 million bet across Betfair Exchange markets already we are expecting a huge amount of activity in the coming days as the countdown ramps up in earnest."

October 22 - 13:00- New Paul Krishnamurty US election update

Donald Trump is around 8/131.61 on the Betfair Exchange (a 61.5% chance) to win the US election with two weeks to go until Americans vote in what could be one of the closest elections in their history.

His opponent Kamala Harris is (13/8) (37.9%) and momentum in the market continues to favour Trump.

However, the polls indicate that the candidates are neck and neck. In a new in-depth article for Betting.Betfair Paul Krishanmurty assesses the polls and the factors that could tip outcome of the election on 5 November.

Paul says: "Trump has definitely had some better numbers of late, but the race remains too close to call. Fivethirtyeight have Harris ahead by 48.2% to 46.4%. That leaves 5% still left to decide, or voting third party. In the seven key states, all deficits are within the margin of error.

"Therefore it would take very little to produce a sweep in the seven swing states for either side. Here's five factors that could very easily skew the polls to a small, yet transformative, degree."

Read Paul's update here.

October 22 - 09:15 - Trump 5/8 after £1.2m bet in 24 hours

Donald Trump is 8/52.60 on the Betfair Exchange (a 61.5% chance) to win the US election with two weeks to go until Americans vote in what could be one of the closest elections in their history.

His opponent Kamala Harris is (13/8) (37.9%) and momentum in the market continues to favour Trump.

In the last 24 hours, over £800K was bet on a Trump victory, double that of the figure placed on Harris winning the election.

The total bet in all Betfair Exchange US election markets is approaching £150m.

For weeks the election looked too close to call but in the past fortnight bettors have moved decisively for Trump and victory for the former-president on 5 November is now rated likely, according to the Betfair Exchange odds.

We will have more US election betting updates throughout today.

October 21 - 19:40 - Trump leading in all seven swing states with Betfair Exchange punters

We reported earlier today that Donald Trump's Republicans were ahead in six swing states while the seventh could barely be closer (scroll down for the post).

Well, now it is a full house with the septet all fancied to go to the Republicans.

Should that come to pass, the Republicans would win by a collosal margin as our own Sam Rosbottom's tweet illustrates.

October 21 - 16:00 - Find out what Harris and Trump are up to this week

Donald Trump's momentum on the Betfair Exchange has looked unstoppable for nearly two weeks but the polls continue to show him neck and neck with Kamala Harris.

The former-president is 4/61.67 (a 60% chance), as he was this morning, to win the election in just over a fortnight, while Harris is 8/52.60 (39.1%).

So which is right, the market or the polls? We will have to wait to find out but it is worth noting a Washington Post poll, published today.

It said, of more than 5,000 registered voters surveyed in the first half of this month, 47% who said they would definitely or probably support Harris and the same amount said they would definitely or probably support Trump. Among likely voters, 49% chose Harris while for Trump it was 48%.

The two candidates for the White House will throw everything at the final fortnight of the campaign, so find out here where they will be this week.

October 21 - 13:30 - Harris aims to claw back support in swing states

With six of the seven US election swing states leaning towards the Republicans, according to the Betfair Exchange odds, Kamala Harris is wasting no time in trying to claw back support.

Today she will visit three states as she tries to regain momentum in the race for the White House.

Harris will be in Pennsylvania which has 19 electoral college seats and has long been regarded as the most important state. Trump is 4/5 [55.6%] to win there and Harris is 5/4 44.4217/5.

She will then travel to Michigan where she and Trump are at parity on the Betfair Exchange - both the Democrats and Republicans 1/12.00.

Her whirlwind day will conclude in Wisconsin where the Republicans have overtaken the Democrats. Trump is 10/111.91 (52.4%) to win the Badger State while Harris has drifted to 21/202.05 (48.8%) having been odds-on favourites for much of the race there.

It's crunch time for Harris and her busy swing state schedule today shows that she knows it.

October 21 - 10:18 - Swing states lean GOP's way

The Republicans are now favourites in six of the seven swing states and the seventh - Michigan - has the Democrats ahead by what is literally the slimmest of margins, 1.991/1 v 2.01/1.

Betting in the seven swing states has followed that of the Election Winner market and if it proves to be right, the Republicans will easily win the Electoral College.

The below two Betfair Predicts graphics show the percentage chance of each party winning the seven swing states and the Electoral College projection.

October 21 - 09:15 - Trump is 4/6 to win election

A Donald Trump victory at the US election on 5 November is 4/61.67 (a 60% chance) on the Betfair Exchange US election winner market.

The latest data from the Exchange shows that £704,538 was bet on Trump in the last 24 hours as bettors continued to favour him over vice president Kamala Harris.

Harris is 6/42.50 (40%) and was backed to the tune of £456,070 since in the same period.

Trump has all the momentum on the Betfair Exchange, as the campaign enters its final two weeks. The past 10 days have seen punters put their faith in a second Trump presidency. Will that continue to be the case all the way to election day? Or can Harris mount a comebakc in the market?

We will have more updates on the US election betting throughout today.

October 20 - 16:30 - US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Nevada

Throught the last few weeks Cai Wilshaw has been focussing on the key swing states that are vital to determining the outcome of next month's US Election.

Today Cai takes a look at Nevada, a swing state that is extremely tight in both the polls and the Betfair Exchange betting. It's a tiny advantage to the Democrats who are 10/111.91 to win the state race, with the Republicans available to back at 21/202.05.

You can read Cai's Nevada focus in full here.

October 20 - 13:30 - Musk to give away around $15m to Pennsylvania voters

Elon Musk will give away $1m per day to a registered voter in the key swing state of Pennsylvania until the day of the US Election on Tuesday 5 November, he has announced.

The Tech billionaire has already donated $75m to Donald Trump's campaign and has emerged as a key supporter of the Republican party in recent years, and he is now set to give away around $15m between now and next month's election. The daily winner will be chosen at random from those who sign a pro-constitution petition by Musk's campaign group AmericaPAC.

However, those who sign the petition have to give their contact details, potentially allowing AmericaPAC to contact them about their vote.

Musk is currently the world's richest man, with an estimated net worth of $248bn, according to US business magazine Forbes.

Only last week the Betfair Exchange couldn't split the Democrats and the Republicans in the Pennsylvania state race market, but it has now edged in the Republicans favour at around 4/51.80, with the Democrats available to back at 11/102.11.

October 20 - 09:45 - No change in betting as candidates visit swing states

There's been no change in the betting markets overnight with Donald Trump remaining the 7/101.70 favourite to win next month's US Election as both he and Kamala Harris visited key swing states on Saturday.

Trump rallied in Pennsylvania, where the Republicans are 4/51.80 to win, while Harris, who is 7/52.40 to become the President of the United States, campaigned in Michigan and Georgia.

While the Democrats are marginal favourites at 1.9620/21 to win Michigan, it was a bold move from Harris to visit Georgia where her party are considered 2/13.00 outsiders.

October 19 - 16:30 - Why Paul Krishnamurty has decided to cash out

Having built up a great position on Kamala Harris over the last few years, advising bets from as big as 84/1, Paul Krishnamurty has now decided to lay back some of his potential profit, meaning he is now guaranteed to profit on the outcome of this year's US Election regardless of who wins.

You can read Paul's full reasoning for his decision in his latest article for Betfair here.

October 19 - 13:30 - Harris questions Trump's fitness

Kamala Harris questioned Donald Trump's energy levels as both candidates campaigned in the battleground state of Michigan on Friday.

Referencing a report that the former president was exhausted, Harris said, "being president of the United States is probably one of the hardest jobs in the world and we really do need to ask, is he fit to do the job?"

Trump's energy levels were questioned after he backed out of some interviews with mainstream media outlets, but in response Trump said, "I've gone 48 days now without a rest, I'm not even tired. I'm really exhilarated.

Trump is 7/101.70 to win next month's US Election with Harris at 7/52.40, while in the key swing state of Michigan both the Democrats and Republicans are both trading at around the 1/12.00 mark.

October 19 - 10:15 - Trump remains favourite entering the weekend

Donald Trump remains the favourite to win the US Election with just over two weeks to go before Americans cast their vote.

In a week that saw the odds move significantly in Trump's favour, the former president is 7/101.70 on the Betfair Exchange to win the 5 November election. His odds imply that he has a 58.5% of winning.

Kamala Harris has a 41.3% chance of winning with her odds currently around the 7/52.40 mark.

Nearly £95m has been traded on the US Election Winner market alone, with over £145m being traded on all Betfair's US Election markets. Both numbers should rise to £100m and £150m respectively in the upcoming days.

To get the most up to date prices and volume of money matched, check out our US Election data blog from around 8am every morning.

October 18 - 17:15 - Three Betfair Predicts graphics to watch this weekend

With just days left of the 2024 Presidential Election campaign the betting is very tight with neither candidate considered a strong favourite.

While Donald Trump is odds-on and has been backed this week, the race is still in 'too close to call' territory, as evidenced by this Betfair Predicts graphic.

The arrow does, however, lean Trump's way and that is down to his position in the swing state markets. Pennsylvania moving towards Trump is significant. Look at what it does to the Electoral College graphic...

And, worryingly for the Democrats, the betting is very tight in states where they are marginal favourites but more one-sided where the Republicans are fancied, as our Swing State graphic demonstrates.

So it's little surprise that, as we go into the weekend, Trump is the 5/71.71 Betfair Exchange favourite, with a 58.1% chance of winning. Harris, meanwhile, is 7/52.40, a 41.7% chance of winning.

October 18 - 15:55 - Boulton is back on B.B!

We are hurtling towards the conclusion of the 2024 Presidential Election and Betfair is rolling out the big guns!

Former Sky News anchor Adam Boulton this week hosted the second of three Politics...Only Bettor podcasts (scroll down for more) and today we published the second of three articles on the election.

Having focused on Trump in his first piece it made sense to study the chances of Kamala Harris for part two.

While the odds have painted a worrying picture for Harris, the polls and other measurements tell a different story.

Adam explores the chances of Harris succeeding Joe Biden in the White House in this illuminating article. Could the underdog be a value bet at 7/52.40?

October 18 - 12:35 - Listen to episode 2 of Politics...Only Bettor: US Election Special

Get up to speed with the US Election so far with our second podcast of the campaign.

Donald Trump holds the edge in the betting but what do our experts make of the polls which tell a slightly different story?

Adam Boulton, former Sky News anchor and currently of Times Radio, hosts and we have views from both sides of the political spectrum in Sun political editor Harry Cole and Mirror journalist and Twitter commentator Susie Boniface, aka FleetStreetFox.

And there is of course plenty of betting input from our star man, Sam Rosbottom.

Listen now!

October 18 - 09:15 - Bettors keep backing Trump in big 24 hours

Donald Trump is 5/71.71 (a 58.3% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win a second term as president after bettors continued to put their money on the him during a busy 24 hours that saw nearly £3M bet on all US election markets.

Our daily report shows that a total of £1,770,580 was bet on a Trump victory. It continued an extraordinary few days on the market which saw £10m matched on US election markets in one week.

As the betting hots up in the race to election day, Kamala Harris still has plenty of supporters and £987,753 was bet on her winning in the last 24 hours.

The vice president is 7/52.40 (41.7%) to win when Americans vote in two-and-a-half weeks.

We will have more updates on the US election betting throughout today.

October 17 - 16:00 - The inside story of a big week on the Betfair Exchange

A monumental few days saw Donald Trump take control of the US election winner market on the Betfair Exchange and Betfair's Sam Rosbottom is here to explain what happened.

In his latest article, Sam discusses the Trump gamble, that has seen the former president become a 60% chance to win the election on 5 November.

Sam said: "Of the £10.1m that has been staked since last week, £6.6m of that has been for the former-president, and his odds have dipped to a low of 1.65 (a 60.6% chance) having been as big as 2.1 (47.6%) just over two weeks ago.

"It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what is behind this move. In previous elections we have seen the market side with one candidate with just a few weeks left in the campaign and, while there was some uncertainty around whether that would be the case this time, it looks as though the market momentum is now fully behind Trump."

Read the full story to find out more, see Sam go in-depth on the swing states numbers and why he's heading to some of the battlegrounds next week.

October 17 - 16:00 - Trump victory is 60% chance on Betfair Exchange

Donald Trump shortened back to 4/61.67 (a 60% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win the US election as bettors continued to put their money on the former-president.

Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is 6/42.50 (40%) and on her way to one of the seven swing states that will decide the outcome of the election on 5 November.

The Badger State is key to Harris's chances and, after Joe Biden won it four years ago, the vice president is determined to keep it blue.

The race in Wisconsin is tight and the odds indicate it could go either way, with the Democracts 20/211.95 (51/2%) and the Republicans 1/12.00 (50%).

Harris is going to Milwaukee today to hold a rally that she hopes will help the Democrats extend their advantage in Wisconsin.

October 17 - 08:00 - Trump drifts ever so slightly after touching lowest odds since late July

Each day at Betfair, we take a look back at the last 24 hours in the political betting markets, and the highlight from yesterday was all about Donald Trump once again.

The former US President hit odds of around 4/61.67 to return to the White House, his shortest odds since the end of July. Those odds suggest a probability chance of almost 60%.

Indeed, those odds have come out ever so slightly on the Betfair Exchange this morning, now priced at 8/111.73, and a 58% chance.

Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is currently 7/52.40 to become the next President, giving her a near 42% chance, following her interview with Fox News last night.

Those percentage splits currently leave it "too close to call", according to Betfair Predicts, and you can see how we are telling the story of the US Election here.

You can read all about the historical prices, betting volume and other political betting markets every day, right here.

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