Canadian Election: Mark Carney's Liberals 1/5 favourites to win after Trump annexation threat

• Liberals are favourites to win Monday's Canadian election

• Extraordinary reversal in odds after Conservatives were 1/501.02

• Trump annexation threat may influence voters' thinking

The Liberals are the favourites to win Monday's Canadian federal election after a turnaround in the polls which may be in part owed to US president Donald Trump's hostility and threats.

The Liberals are 1.21/5 favourites, with an 88% chance of victory, on the Betfair Exchange as Canadians go the polls in an election which politicians on all sides are calling their country's most important for a generation. 

The Conservatives, who had looked likely to win when Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down as Prime Minister earlier this year, are as long as 5.04/1 on election day. 

Carney revives Liberals to upturn the Betfair odds

In January, the Conservatives were 1/501.02 and the Liberals were 10/111.00 on the Betfair Sportsbook. 

So what changed?

Mark Carney became Canadian Prime Minister after winning the battle to succeed Trudeas as leader of the Liberal Party. 

UK readers will recognise his name from his period as governor of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020.

Canadians appear to have warmed to his leadership as Carney has reversed a 26 point polling deficit for his party. He now appears to be on the verge of victory. 

Is Trump threat a factor in Canadian election?

One factor in the change of mind that has swept across the Canadian electorate is the the new US government's hostility towards Canada.

Since taking office in January, President Trump has ruptured economic and diplomatic relations between the North American neighbours and even threatened to annex Canada. 

Voters appear to have lost faith in the Conservatives and believe that Carney is the leader best-placed to steer Canada through a tricky few years while Trump is in power south of the border.

Trump has expressed views about Canada that would have been unthinkable in any other modern US administration.

As recently as Friday Trump said: "We don't need anything from Canada. And I say the only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state."

Those words may go down well with some sections of the US electorate. But they are anathema to Canadians who, based on their election day of poll odds on the Betfair Exchange, have decided they want the Liberals to stay in power and stand up to Trump. 

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