German Election: Conservative CDU favs with AfD to push Scholz's SPD into third

• Conservatives favourites to win German election 

• Far-right AfD in second place ahead of 23 February vote

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Who will win the German election?

The centre-right Conservatives are heavy odds-on to win this Sunday's German election and end Olaf Scholz's reign as chancellor.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) come next in the market and, although they are 16.531/2 to win the most seats, their gains could be the big story of the election. 

This reflects opinion polls which put the AfD in second place, at around 22%, behind the CDU/CSU conservatives, on 30%.

The Social Democrats (SPD) - the centre-left party of the current German chancellor Olaf Scholz - is 290.00289/1 to win the most seats and lagging in the polls on around 17%. 

Who will be the next German chancellor? 

Germany has the largest population - 84 million - and the biggest economy in Europe. It plays a central role in the European Union. Its federal elections are of enormous significance far beyond its borders but, due to its proportional representation electoral system, the results are often compliated.

Negotations between potential coalition partners can be protracted. They can take a while to put together a new government so there could be a period of waiting before a new chancellor is sworn in.

Scholz came to power in 2021, succeeding Angela Merkel after her 16 year reign, but his chancellorship looks destined to be a one-term affair. So who will replace him?

Based on the latest Betfair Exchange German election odds, the next chancellor is most likely to be the CDU's Friedrich Merz. He debated Scholz and will do so again this week.

Merz has ruled out a CDU coalition with the AfD. The CDU and SPD could join together in a grand coalition that would lock the AfD out of power. It would, however, be a fragile coalition as the two parties that have dominated German politics in recent years disagree on plenty of policies.

One area where there is agreement between Scholz and Merz is Germany's support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. Both politicians are alarmed by the possibility that Donald Trump will try to broker piece on terms that are advantageous to Vladimir Putin's goverment in Moscow.

Merz has pledged that, if he becomes chancellor, he will commit Germany to a "Weimar Alliance" with France and Poland to support Ukraine. 

The AfD has admirers in Washington, with Elon Musk platforming its leader Alice Weidel on X. US vice president JD Vance met with her on his recent trip to Germany at the same time as turning down a meeting with Scholz. 

Much of Germany's electorate remains suspicious of the AfD, in part due to the country's traumatic history under the Nazis. Some have said it should be banned.

But the far-right party, which entered the German parliament for the first time eight years ago, is polling at double its rating from the last election. 

A lot is at stake in Sunday's German Federal Election. The world will be watching to see if the AfD do cause the kind of shake-up that many fear and to see where the balance of power will lie in the Reichstag during the coming years. 

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