Clacton By-Election: Back Farage to trash Binface at 2/1

Next week the UK will see an unusual by-election, triggered intentionally by the sitting MP. Nigel Farage wants to get past the stories of his financial dealings by putting the question to the people (of Clacton) and argues that if they are fine with it then the media need to move on.

The media, for their part, have turned it into a head-to-head between Farage and Count Binface - the novelty candidate who writes for Have I Got News for You in his day job. 

Could Binface cause upset of century in Clacton? 

Almost certainly not. The odds on the Betfair Exchange make it clear - Reform UK are 1.021/50 to win Clacton on Thursday and Count Binface is 42.041/1.

Farage's opponents across the country would love to see it, and it's certainly true that his personal approval ratings are much worse than you might think based on Reform's strong national position, and their Betfair Exchange price of 3.4549/20 to win the next general election, and trail the leaders of the traditional parties. 

But Clacton is not the country overall, and Farage picked it to fight last election for a reason. It is full of Reform-sympathetic groups, who are much older, whiter, and has fewer university graduates than the average area. It is estimated to be one of the most Leave-supporting seats in the country. 

More interesting is the question of how big a win Farage is likely to pull off. Had the main parties stood candidates, he'd have hoped to increase his majority. After all, financial scrutiny aside, he won in 2024 when Reform got 14% of the vote nationally and they are now polling close to 24%. 

But with no real opposition, he'll hope to run up the scoreline. The only poll of the by-election puts him on 73% of the vote, up from 46% at the general election. 

Clacton by-election precedents for bettors

There isn't much precedent for this situation to compare that to, but there is some. In the last 20 years there have been three by-elections with only one real candidate. 

The first of these was the 2008 Haltemprice and Howden by-election. Not unlike Clacton, this was triggered by the sitting MP trying to prove a point. In 2008 it was David Davis trying to show his opposition to new anti-terror laws. The government simply ignored him, as did the Lib Dems, leaving Davis to fight the Greens (then a minor party) and 24 other independents and very minor party opponents. 

The other two were more tragic, with by-elections in Batley & Spen and Southend West triggered in 2016 and 2022 by the murder of the sitting MPs. Both times major parties stood aside so the incumbent party could retain it unopposed. 

In all three cases the lone major candidate did extremely well. In Southend West the Tory candidate got 86%, Batley & Spen saw Labour get 86% also, and Davis' principled stand won him 72% of the ballots cast. 

The lone poll is therefore pretty plausible, and it makes sense that Davis might be a better precedent than the by-elections following murders - when voting for another candidate could have felt like endorsing the crime. 

Back Reform to win 60-70% of Clacton vote

Given this, and with Farage facing more of a scandal than Davis, it's possible the 73% he scores in the lone poll might be a bit optimistic. On the other hand, Clacton is extremely supportive territory for him and his politics generally, so don't count him out from reaching that bar. 

The market on Reform's vote share is split into 10% bands, and focused on the low end of 70-80%. You can get 2.427/5 on Farage coming within that band or 3.02/1 on him slipping into 60-70%. At those odds, I'd be tempted by a bet on the lower figure.

You can follow Pip Moss on Bluesky at @PipsFunFacts

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