US Midterm Elections 2026: Trump is liability for GOP with Democrats favourites to win House and Senate

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October 12 Three Weeks To Go - Democrats favourites to win House and Senate

With three weeks to go before Americans vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections, the Democrats are 1.121/8 (an 89% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to win control of Congress and 1.574/7 (64%) to take the Senate.

That's up a percentage in the Senate and down one in Congress on the state of play last week. But the concerning thing for Republicans, aka the GOP, and president Donald Trump, is that another week has passed without them gaining ground significantly in either race on the Betfair Exchange.

Is Texas choosing the Democrats?

Immigration has been in focus in the past week, as it has been for all of Donald Trump's political career. He's delivered on his promise to deport undocumented immigrants but voters appear to be increasingly uneasy about Trump's policies which have seen ICE shooting people in the streets.

That could have an impact on the Midterms as voters live with the reality of Trump's hardline approach.

In Texas, for example, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is telling voters that Trump has gone too far on immigration. That message is said be gaining traction and the Democrat is 1.68/13 to win while the Trump-backed Republican is out to 2.427/5.

Betfair Exchange will tell us if Republican fightback is on

The Exchange is one to watch over the next few weeks because two years ago it was there that bettors started to back Trump as he pulled clear in the final weeks of his presidential race against Kamala Harris.

If there is to be a Republican resurgence in the Midterms then you are likely to hear about on the Betfair Exchange.

So far, however, all the indications are that on 3 November, the Democrats are going to enjoy an excellent night and reshape America's political map.

Trump has called the midterms a referendum on his presidency. If he's right, and that is what's shaping Americans' voting intentions this autumn, then the verdict from the people is damning.

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October 6 Four Weeks To Go - Democrats favourites to win House and Senate

With four weeks to go before Americans vote in the 2026 Midterm Election, the Democrats are 1.111/9 (a 90% chance) to win control of Congress and 1.584/7 (63%) to take the Senate.

The good news for Donald Trump, who risks being rendered a lame duck president on 3 November and seeing his legislative power severely hampered, is that both prices are marginally longer than they were last week.

But it still a worrying state of affairs for the Republicans who currently control both Congress and the Senate but are 9.28/1 and 2.6813/8 respectively to retain their majorities after the midterms.

Trump approval rating hits record low in run up to Midterms

Yesterday Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to a record low at 32%. The US president responded by claiming he was "doing great". He was heavily criticised this week for using tax payer funds to pay for poltical campaign ads. Trump vowed to start paying for them himself.

Betfair Exchange punters continue to back Trump to be impeached before the 2028 US presidential election - something that will be more likely if the Democrats win Congress on 3 November. He is 1.584/7 to be impeached.

Why are Trump and the Republicans struggling? Inflation is hitting American citizens hard and, along with Trump's disastrous war with Iran, is cited as contributing to his declining popularity. The two factors are, of course, not unrelated, with the latter a driver of the former.

It all adds up to a miserable state of affairs for Trump who only two years to go swept to victory in the presidential election, winning the popular vote as well as control of Congress and the Senate. Now some Republicans are distancing themselves from the president as they try to cling on in Senate seats that are up for grabs.

Yesterday Trump was in Nebraska where he was campaigning for a Republican senator. Get the latest Betfair Exchange odds for all the Senate and Congress seats that are in play on 3 November here.

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October 1 - Democrats backed again to win House and Senate in US Midterms

The Democrats shortened to 1.091/11 (a 91% chance) to win control of Congress and 1.538/15 (65%) to flip the Senate in the US Midterm elections on 3 November as Donald Trump's popularity continued to plunge.

If those markets are correct, and the Betfair Exchange has a peerless record at prediction election outcomes, Trump's agenda will be severely hampered and he'll find it difficult to pass legislation. He will be a lame duck president for the final two years of his reign.

Bruising polling for Trump, linked to his war against Iran and inflation in the US, showed that the president's base were losing faith in the man they elected in 2024.

It's hardly surprising after Trump, who claimed to be an isolationist who would put America first, waged a war that has become a nightmare for his presidency.

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Read politics betting expert Pip Moss on the challenges facing Republicans and get two midterms tips

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Voters unimpressed by Trump's midterms gimmicks

With just over a month until polling day, Trump has been telling Republican voters to pretend he is on the ballot. At the same time, some Reublican candidates for Senate and Congress have distancing themselves from the man in the White House.

The president has tried gimmickery (even more than usual), promising a $5,000 dividend to voters if the Republicans retain control of Congress. But that doesn't appear to have had much impact, as only 13% polled said they believed him - a sign of waning trust in Trump.

Will Trump be impeached if Democrats win Congress?

As well as the prospect of losing control of Congress and the Senate next month, there is also the possibilty that Trump could be impeached again.

Many experts believe a Democrat controlled Congress would move to impeach the president.

On the Betfair Exchange Trump is 1.625/8 (61%) to be impeached before the next presidential election in 2028.

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September 22 - Democrats favourites to win House and Senate in US Midterm elections 2026

Exactly six weeks out from the Midterms and the Betfair Exchange is predicting big Democrat wins across the board.

According to the odds on the Exchange - the OG of prediction betting sites - The Democrats will win control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the US Midterms and make Donald Trump a lame duck president for his final two years in the White House.

That is the prediction being made by the Betfair Exchange US politics markets six weeks out from the crucial votes that will take place across America on 3 November.

Below we take a look at the odds for the main Midterm betting markets on the Exchange to see where punters are placing their money ahead of an election that will have huge ramifications in the US and beyond.

House of Representatives Midterms Prediction - Democrats red-hot favourites

All 435 districts in the House are up for re-election in 2026 with the Republicans currently holding a slim 218-212 majority.

But the party are hugely unpopular and the Midterms often see the incumbent party suffer losses.

Little wonder then that the Betfair Exchange predicts a Democrat majority at odds of just 1.121/8 - that is a near 90% probability.

Senate Midterms Prediction - A closer battle but Democrats still favourites

The betting is closer in the battle for the Senate.

Of 100 seats in the Senate, 33 are up for re-election in 2026, and the Democrats need a net gain of four seat to achieve a majority.

The Betfair Exchange market has the Democrats at 1.654/6 to do that, (or a 61% probability).

Will the Democrats sweep the Midterms? Betfair Exchange predicts control of both houses

With the Democrats such short odds to win the House of Representatives and favourites to win the Senate the Exchange is offering a market on a sweep of both.

Exchange customers can currently back that outcome at 1.684/6.

There is a huge range of Midterms betting markets available on the Betfair Exchange and we will be updating the odds here, as well as providing guides and tips as we count down to the elections.

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