US Midterm Elections: Politics betting expert Pip Moss previews what could be a very bad night for Trump

Republicans pay price for Trump's wars and tariffs

Republicans won big at the 2024 US election. Donald Trump won the popular vote (third time's the charm) and his party got up to 53 Senate seats. They also held the House of Representatives, albeit with small Democrat gains, meaning they controlled all three arms of the legislative process.

But since then, well, have you watched the news? To pick a few highlights, or lowlights, polls show most Americans strongly objecting to ICE shooting US citizens in the streets, a government shutdown because Congress couldn't pass a budget (despite one party having full control), threats to invade Canada, starting a tariff war with pretty much every country in the world at once, and actually starting a war with Iran.

Those last two deserve special mention. The 2024 election saw incumbents lose elections virtually worldwide, with many observers (including me) attributing this to high inflation at the time. The public hates inflation, and they punished whoever was in charge. Right now the US is not only suffering from high inflation (particularly of fuel, a very visible type of inflation), but inflation directly linked to the ongoing actions of the President.

Polls legendarily bad for Trump

I cannot remember a time we have seen a government so doggedly pursue a policy which was unpopular and caused unpopular outcomes. Trump's approval rating has suffered heavily. Even in a country where both main parties have far more die-hard supporters than their peers elsewhere, 60% of voters disapprove of the job he's doing.

For context, most Presidents never break 50% in polling averages. Joe Biden just about cleared 55% disapproval in the worst months of his term. And while Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, Republican candidates are feeling the drag from his numbers to theirs.

Democrats challenge Republicans in battleground states

For Democrats to take control of the Senate, they need 51 seats (as a tie is broken by the Vice President). The Senate is elected in thirds, so Democrats need four gains from the 35 available (including two states holding special elections).

On paper the territory is not remotely fertile for Democrat gains.

Democrats only have one state (Maine) to target where Harris won in the 2024 Presidential election, home territory for them. After that they have only one (North Carolina) where the Republicans currently have the Senate seat but Harris came within 10% of winning.

And after that, they need to win at least two states which voted Republican by double digits just two years ago. In order, their options are Ohio (11.2%), Alaska (13.1%), Florida (13.1%), Iowa (13.3%), and Texas (13.7%).

These are states which should be pretty safe for the Republicans, but the tide is flowing so hard against them that polls show the Republicans losing in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Nebraska. And it's neck and neck in Kansas, a state which hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Democrats will win House and Senate on 3 November

Democrats are 1.558/15 on the Betfair Exchange to win control of the Senate. That is a 64.5% chance of happening, but are there reasons for doubts? They have flattered to deceive in polls plenty of times before. For example, last time these Senate seats were contested in 2020 they led or were very close in the polls in North Carolina (lost by 1.7%), Iowa (lost by 6.6%), Maine (lost by 8.6%), and South Carolina (lost by 10.3%). They even had a couple of polls leading in Kansas.

This time could be the same, though there are reasons to believe otherwise. Firstly, Trump's personal unpopularity is a lot worse than six years ago, as mentioned above. Secondly, the Democrats don't just have the polls: their performance in special elections has been pretty stunning the last year or two (though this was true in 2018-2020 too). And thirdly, their voter base is increasingly full of educated and wealthier voters who are more likely to vote than the working class base they've steadily lost to the Republicans.

So will Democrats take the Senate? Probably, yes. But I'm skeptical they will achieve their stretch goals like Kansas and Nebraska. It's certainly possible, and that is shocking in itself, but I simply struggle to believe that states which typically vote for Republican candidates by margins of 20% or more won't reluctantly stand by them now too.

I've not mentioned the House so far, and that's because there's not much to say. Democrats need a tiny swing to win it and all indicators are they are on track for a big to huge swing. Markets will give you a mere 1.111/9 on Democrats taking the House. Unbelievably that's a fair price.

My bets: Backing Republicans in Nebraska and Dems in Michigan

Elsewhere, I'm betting more on Republicans than Democrats. Not to win overall, but the price on them to hold states we normally wouldn't consider remotely at risk have grown too long for me to ignore.

Below are a couple of options where I have taken relatively short prices as I feel they are value, but look out for tips at bigger prices in future columns.

For those looking to back the Republicans, I'd recommend Nebraska where you can get 1.422/5 on them.

One place I am betting on Democrats is Michigan. This is a state they already have the Senate seat but Trump won in 2024, making it (normally) a prime target for the Republicans.

The Democrat candidate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, is an outspoken progressive, far more left-wing than most American politicians, and he's facing a lot of resources from the Republicans. But I think this is going to be too strong a year for Democrats across the whole country for him to lose, and even at 1.351/3 he's worth some money.

All in all, election night looks likely to be one of the most dramatic for decades in the US. The only truly safe bet is that it's worth booking the next day off work so you can watch it unfold as it happens.

Now read our US Midterm Elections 2026 live blog for the latest Betfair Exchange odds and more analysis