US Politics

US Election Odds: Why I've cashed out my Kamala Harris bets early for a profit

US Vice President Kamala Harris
Has Kamala Harris passed her peak in the betting?

After building a great position on Kamala Harris at big odds over the past year, our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty explains why he's cashing out and taking the profit now...

  • Market confidence behind Trump is unshakeable

  • Harris hasn't pulled clear

  • Disinformation is powering Trump's new coalition

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Over the past two years, I have built up a big position on Kamala Harris from big priced bets advised on these pages from odds of 84-1 down. Updating the position 100 days out, I was not prepared to cash out the profit by laying back. Last night, that changed, leaving my book 208 units in front, regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins.

Does this reflect a loss of confidence? To some extent, yes. I thought she would win the TV debate and open up a lead. She did. I thought that her odds would go to 1.75/7. They didn't. Rather, as I've held this position, the market has turned against me.

The hardest US election to call, ever?

Do I think the race has fundamentally changed? No, but I do not feel confident about making a prediction. Generally speaking, I haven't throughout the entire cycle. This is unlike every other recent US election - in all of which, rightly or not, I was happy to go in big and take a risk.

What has changed? In truth, despite winning big in 2020 on Biden, Trump's performance spooked me. I predicted Biden would get 81M votes, but Trump getting 75M was much higher than expected. To gain 12M between cycles was remarkable and testimony to his unique ability - I believe driven by his celebrity - to energise his base. Far-Right MAGA imitators repeatedly crash in other elections.

Trump remains immune from normal rules

Likewise, his resilience is incredible. The January 6th insurrection would have finished anyone else. So too the (unpaid) half billion fine and judgement against the Trump Organization for business fraud. Never mind the criminal convictions over the Stormy Daniels affair. Years of ever more extreme, fascist rhetoric at rallies which have become darker and darker. A truly absurd scale of lying, peaking at the debate with Harris.

None of this makes any difference to his polling. He is polling better than when winning in 2016 and losing the electoral college narrowly. Fivethirtyeight now make him the marginal favorite.

Could the polls be wrong or overstate him? Are firms over-reacting to 2020, as they did in the 2022 midterms when hugely overestimating Republicans. Very possibly. But there are other dynamics in play that might produce another misread in the other direction.

The disinfo network is stronger than ever

As regular readers know, I place great emphasis on the narrative, messaging and see the past decade of so-called populism, of the 'world going mad', as due to the hybrid war being waged upon populations in Western democracies. For years I have been reporting the Putin network's ability to flood the zone with propaganda, in favour of Trump and other extreme candidates and chaos agents.

That persists and across Europe it is growing, perhaps unstoppably. Only yesterday, news broke that Canadian PM Justin Trudeau has claimed under oath that Tucker Carlson and Jordan Peterson are paid by Russia. Don't expect that news to affect anything. It never does.

This manufactured information bubble is more diverse than ever. The QaNon conspiracy Cult, Covid-denial, the anti-vaxxer movement, spread by disinfluencers whose vast number of followers weren't always natural Trump supporters, but are now being herded in that direction. See would-be Cult leader Russell Brand, for example.

Then there's Crypto. Trump used to be a sceptic but he has wisely, enthusiastically courted this movement. People of all political stripes, especially younger, less politically-defined types are invested in crypto. They'll swing hard for Trump.

The backing of Elon Musk cannot be overstated. X has become a propaganda machine for one candidate. The algorithms targeting the last two mentioned groups now direct users to anti-Ukraine propaganda, and anti-Harris messaging. Every day we learn of more cynical ploys being unleashed by Musk's Super PAC. I'm not convinced democracy can withstand this onslaught and don't wish to bet that it will.

Market dynamics bound to favour Trump


Then there are the market trends. I still believe the race is basically tied, and that turnout, spending dynamics favour Harris. But the odds don't reflect that and are unlikely to before polling day.

I stand by these five explanations for the market move for Trump. Some are rational - belief that polls understate Trump, fear that a partisan Supreme Court could throw it to him - while others such as gender bias among partisan bettors are irrational. Combined, they turn a 50/50 race into 60/40.

Liberal and Conservative voters have a fundamentally different outlook on this election. The former are terrified and have been ever since Trump came down that escalator in 2015, fearmongering about immigrants. January 6th confirmed that democracy was in mortal danger and everything since has accentuated the fear of fascism, mass deportation, enemies lists, the end of the Western alliance, the betrayal of precious security secrets. No Liberal I know needs a bet to stay transfixed.

Alternatively, Conservatives seem apparently blase about all of that. January 6th was a nothingburger. Trump doesn't mean the extreme things he says. I am being told again and again by Trump supporters that their man is a certainty. They'll keep backing him.

Better betting opportunities lie ahead

Therefore I do not expect the market to move very much in her favour, even with good polls. In any case, there are other ways to invest in Harris which might land without having to win the presidency. Later this week, I will start a 'Bet of the day' column.

Then there's the in-play. I made a vow last time to try and close my main position by the time polls close. This is where the angles are, evaluating the incoming results and predicting the trajectory of the market. I want a clear head.


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