Makerfield By-Election Update: Burnham sweeps to victory and goes heavy-odds on to be next PM
The Makerfield by-election has been a record-breaking betting event on the Betfair Exchange. The result could have big implications for national politics in the UK so get the latest Betfair prices on the result, next Labour leader and prime minister...
- Labour's Burnham wins by-election and returns to Westminster as MP
- He's favourite to succeed Starmer as next PM
- Makerfield breaks by-election record on Betfair Exchange
- Read the Makerfield by-election betting guide
- Click here for the latest Makerfield by-election odds on the Betfair Exchange
19 June - Burnham triumphs in Makerfield and prepares to challenge Starmer
Andy Burnham is 1.071/14 to be the UK's next prime minister have he stormed to victory in the Makerfield by-election.
Thursday's vote in the north west constituency saw Burnham take 55 per cent of the vote and claim a big majority. Reform UK's candidate came second in an outcome Nigel Farage admitted was disappointing.
Restore Britain finished a distance third, taking just seven per cent of the vote.
Burnham is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership and will urge him to stand down. Reports this morning said Burnham had the supoprt of the required number of MPs to trigger a leadership election.
Starmer is 1.162/13 to replaced as Labour leader, and prime minister, any time from July to September.
Following the result in Makerfield, Labour are 2.727/4 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, a position previously held by Reform who have drifted to 3.185/40.
18 June - Punters back Burnham with record £1.9m wagered
The Makerfield by-election market has broken record on the Betfair Exchange with over £1.9m wagered on today's vote in the northwest constituency.
It is the most money ever matched on a by-election since the Betfair Exchange launched its popular politics markets.
The previous record of £1.3m was set by the Gorton and Denton by-election which took place earlier this year.
As voters go to the polls in Makerfield, Labour and their candidate Andy Burnham are 1.111/9 favourites to win.
The race has tightened earlier this week but second favourites Reform UK have drifted to 11.010/1 and it would be a shock if Burnham was not a Labour MP by this time tomorrow.
Betfair Spokesperson, Sam Rosbottom said: "The betting has been one-way traffic since the market opened, with the overwhelming majority staked on Andy Burnham and Labour to win.
"We've also seen more money matched on Restore Britain than Reform to win the contest, £100,000 more to be precise. However, Nigel Farage's party, who have attracted £325,000 in wagers, are more likely to win according to the odds, they have a 10% chance, compared to Restore Britain's 2% chance."
If the market is correct, the by-election's aftermath will be fascinating.
Burnham is the clear favourite at 1.261/4 to be the UK's next prime minister and is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
Starmer is 1.548/15 to be replaced as Labour leader any time from July to September. He will not give up the leadership lightly and is expected to stand in any leadership contest.
Earlier this week, he said Burnham would have a big role to play in government if elected MP for Makerfield. That may not be enough for Burnham who is thought to have eyes firmly on the top job.
16 June - With two days to go Betfair Exchange predicts Burnham win
With two days to go before the crucial Makerfield by-election, Labour and their candidate Andy Burnham are 1.261/4 favourites to win.
The race has tightened in recent days, with a small drift on Labour, and second favourites Reform UK shortening to 5.39/2, but it would be a big surprise if Burnham were not elected.
The north west constituency will elect a new MP on Thursday 18 June in the by-election which is seen as one of the most significant ever to take place in the UK.
Burnham has been Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, having been an MP prior to that, and is seeking a return to Westminster via the by-election.
If elected on Thursday, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party.
Betfair backers believe Burnham will win the by-election and make him 1.412/5 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister.
11 June - With week to go Betfair Exchange predicts Burnham win in Makerfield
With a week to go before the crucial Makerfield by-election, Labour and their candidate Andy Burnham are 1.182/11 favourites to win.
The north west constituency will elect a new MP on Thursday 18 June in the by-election which is seen as one of the most significant ever.
Reform UK are 7.87/1 to win in Makerfield. Nigel Farage's party won over 50% of the vote in last month's local elections there, but the Exchange market indicates that their chances of taking the parliamentary seat at diminishing.
If Burnham wins for Labour in Makerfield, he is expected to challenge Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour party. That could trigger a leadership election which would also decide who becomes the UK's next prime minister.
Burnham fav for next PM but Starmer hellbent on staying
After next Thursday, events could move quickly, and the Betfair Exchange makes Starmer 1.654/6 to be replaced as Labour leader in the period July to September.
One minute Starmer could be congratulating Burnham on winning Makerfield, the next he might be battling him for the leadership.
In fact, Starmer is already preparing to hold on as PM.
The indications are that the PM will not go down without a fight. He was said this week to be "hellbent" on staying on in 10 Downing Street and will fight Burnham, and any other leadership candidates, with everything in his arsenal.
Starmer has spent the past fortnight preparing for Burnham's challenge, according to reports. He will sack ministers who publicly support Burnham for the leadership. They, on the other hand, might resign and undermine him.
Burnham 69% likely to be next prime minister
Betfair backers believe Burnham will win. They make the Mayor of Manchester 1.454/9 favourite to be the next prime minister.
With Ed Miliband his nearest rival at 19.537/2, the market says it is a foregone conclusion that he is on his way to Downing Street.
Wes Streeting may still harbour leadership ambitions but he is 28.027/1 to be the next PM.
Former-deputy PM Angela Rayner 28.027/1 is the same odds.
Labour's general election chances much better with Burnham
Labour's chances of winning the next election would improve under Burnham, according to bettors on the Exchange.
Labour are 2.942/1 to win the most seats at the next general election. Reform 2.8615/8 are still the favourites but Labour's position is considerably better than it was in the aftermath of May's local elections.
The upshot of having Labour and Reform so close together in the most seats market is that the betting on which party will win a majority points firmly to a hung parliament.
Labour are 6.611/2 to win a majority, Reform are 7.613/2 and no overall majority is 1.684/6.
2 June - Betfair punters back Burnham to win Makerfield for Labour
All the momentum is with Labour in the Betfair Exchange market on the Makerfield by-election.
Labour are 1.412/5 favourites to win when the north west constituency votes in just over a fortnight on Thursday 18 June.
Reform UK are 3.929/10 in Makerfield where Nigel Farage's party won over 50% of the vote in last month's local elections.
There has been speculation that the Reform vote could be split by fellow-right wing party Restore Britain 23.022/1.
With Burnham standing as the Labour candidate, the by-election is eagerly-anticipated and could receive unprecedented national attention.
If victorious, Burnham is expected to stand in a Labour leadership election later this summer that could see Keir Starmer deposed as prime minister.
Starmer is 1.75/7 to replaced as Labour leader, and consequently PM, from July to September this year.
Burnham is the clear favourite at 1.618/13 to be the UK's next prime minister. Angela Rayner is his nearest rival at 13.012/1.
19 May - Betfair punters back Burnham to win Makerfield and be next PM
Labour were backed into 1.584/7 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election on the Betfair Exchange after Andy Burnham was confirmed as their candidate today.
Second favourites Reform drifted to 3.259/4 as bettors reacted to confirmation that it would be the Mayor of Greater Manchester standing for Labour.
With Burnham also 1.8810/11 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister, the Makerfield by-election has enormous national significance.
Angela Rayner 6.86/1 is second favourite, followed by Ed Miliband 14.013/1 and Wes Streeting 17.533/2.
Burnham must become an MP to be able to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
At the moment, the Betfair Exchange odds indicate that Burnham will win in Makerfield, with 18 June expected to be the date of the by-election, and succeed Starmer as leader this summer.
The prime minister is 1.664/6 to be replaced anywhere in the period July to September.
18 May - Burnham campaigns as June 18 floated as possible date for by-election
Labour are the 1.654/6 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election after their prospective candidate Andy Burnham campaigned in the north west constituency at the weekend.
Reform are 2.89/5 second favourites.
The prime minister Keir Starmer said the Labour candidate would have his 100% support after the party's NEC indicated it would not stop him from standing.
Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour's candidate this week and 18 June is being talked about as a potential date for the by-election.
That could have implications for punters who are interested in betting on Keir Starmer's exit dates. He is 1.574/7 to be replaced as Labour leader from July to September.
If Burnham wins in Makerfield in June that would give him time to take part in a leadership contest this summer.
For now, though, his priority has to be winning in Makerfield where Reform are expected to be tough opponents. At the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party won over 50% of the vote.
Burnham has a battle on his hands and you'll read about the latest betting moves from the Betfair Exchange here on the by-election live blog.
15 May - Labour favourites to win crucial by-election
Labour are the 1.784/5 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election on the assumption that Andy Burnham will be their candidate.
Burnham has put himself forward and the party will decide whether he can stand as their candidate. Earlier this year, Labour's NEC blocked Burnham from standing in Gorton and Denton, a by-election they lost to the Green Party. The NEC has indicated it will not stand in his way this time.
There are signs this by-election could be a record breaker - the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year is the biggest by-election market we've had on the Betfair Exchange in the last 10 years. It traded £1.2m in total.
Makerfield is moving fast. More than £85k matched in less than 24 hours. Gorton and Denton took eight days to reach that volume...
Will Burnham win by-election and become next PM?
Burnham is 2.0621/20 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister. With Keir Starmer under pressure to leave, and 1.814/5 to be replaced anywhere from July to September this year, Labour politicians, such as Wes Streeting 16.015/1 and Angela Rayner 6.611/2, have been mulling leadership bids this week.
Burnham looks to be by far the strongest contender but it must be noted that any candidate in a Labour leadership contest to replace Starmer must be an MP.
Streeting has backed Burnham to be Labour's candidate in Makerfield.
The by-election will take place in the north west consituency, part of which is in the Greater Manchester metropolitan area that Burnham has presided over as mayor, after its MP Josh Simons said yesterday he was standing down.
Simons' decision was part of an orchestrated move that is designed to help Burnham return to Westminster as an MP and challenge for the Labour leadership.
Reform second-favourites to win Makerfield by-election
The by-election will be no gimme for Labour even with Burnham as its candidate. Reform are 2.35/4 in a two-horse race (no other party is shorter than 99/1100.00) and Nigel Farage has said his party will throw everthing at winning Makerfield.
In 2024, at the general election, Reform UK took just under a third of the vote and came second to Labour. Simons won by just under 5,500 votes.
At last week's elections in Makerfield Reform won 11 council wards in the constituency.
The local elections saw Reform make considerable games nationwide, although arguably not as many as they would have liked, and they will believe they can make an impact at the by-election.
See the latest Betfair Exchange odds in our graphic
UK - Next General Election
UK General Election, Wednesday 15 August, 8.00am
UK - Next General Election
UK General Election, Wednesday 15 August, 8.00am
With Reform 2.3611/8 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, many regard Burnham as the politician most capable of reversing Labour's fortunes midterm and delivering a second term in power for the party.
Labour are 3.711/4 to win the most seats when Britons vote in the next general election which is scheduled for 2029.
Now read the latest from our Next Prime Minister Live Blog
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