Makerfield By-Election: Punters back Labour in to 2/5 as Burnham prepares to challenge Starmer

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2 June - Betfair punters back Burnham to win Makerfield for Labour

All the momentum is with Labour in the Betfair Exchange market on the Makerfield by-election.

Labour are 1.412/5 favourites to win when the north west constituency votes in just over a fortnight on Thursday 18 June.

Reform UK are 3.929/10 in Makerfield where Nigel Farage's party won over 50% of the vote in last month's local elections.

There has been speculation that the Reform vote could be split by fellow-right wing party Restore Britain 23.022/1.

With Burnham standing as the Labour candidate, the by-election is eagerly-anticipated and could receive unprecedented national attention.

If victorious, Burnham is expected to stand in a Labour leadership election later this summer that could see Keir Starmer deposed as prime minister.

Starmer is 1.75/7 to replaced as Labour leader, and consequently PM, from July to September this year.

Burnham is the clear favourite at 1.618/13 to be the UK's next prime minister. Angela Rayner is his nearest rival at 13.012/1.

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19 May - Betfair punters back Burnham to win Makerfield and be next PM

Labour were backed into 1.584/7 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election on the Betfair Exchange after Andy Burnham was confirmed as their candidate today.

Second favourites Reform drifted to 3.259/4 as bettors reacted to confirmation that it would be the Mayor of Greater Manchester standing for Labour.

With Burnham also 1.8810/11 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister, the Makerfield by-election has enormous national significance.

Angela Rayner 6.86/1 is second favourite, followed by Ed Miliband 14.013/1 and Wes Streeting 17.533/2.

Burnham must become an MP to be able to challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.

At the moment, the Betfair Exchange odds indicate that Burnham will win in Makerfield, with 18 June expected to be the date of the by-election, and succeed Starmer as leader this summer.

The prime minister is 1.664/6 to be replaced anywhere in the period July to September.

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18 May - Burnham campaigns as June 18 floated as possible date for by-election

Labour are the 1.654/6 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election after their prospective candidate Andy Burnham campaigned in the north west constituency at the weekend.

Reform are 2.89/5 second favourites.

The prime minister Keir Starmer said the Labour candidate would have his 100% support after the party's NEC indicated it would not stop him from standing.

Burnham is expected to be confirmed as Labour's candidate this week and 18 June is being talked about as a potential date for the by-election.

That could have implications for punters who are interested in betting on Keir Starmer's exit dates. He is 1.574/7 to be replaced as Labour leader from July to September.

If Burnham wins in Makerfield in June that would give him time to take part in a leadership contest this summer.

For now, though, his priority has to be winning in Makerfield where Reform are expected to be tough opponents. At the recent local elections, Nigel Farage's party won over 50% of the vote.

Burnham has a battle on his hands and you'll read about the latest betting moves from the Betfair Exchange here on the by-election live blog.

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15 May - Labour favourites to win crucial by-election

Labour are the 1.784/5 favourites to win the Makerfield by-election on the assumption that Andy Burnham will be their candidate.

Burnham has put himself forward and the party will decide whether he can stand as their candidate. Earlier this year, Labour's NEC blocked Burnham from standing in Gorton and Denton, a by-election they lost to the Green Party. The NEC has indicated it will not stand in his way this time.

There are signs this by-election could be a record breaker - the Gorton and Denton by-election earlier this year is the biggest by-election market we've had on the Betfair Exchange in the last 10 years. It traded £1.2m in total.

Makerfield is moving fast. More than £85k matched in less than 24 hours. Gorton and Denton took eight days to reach that volume...

Will Burnham win by-election and become next PM?

Burnham is 2.0621/20 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister. With Keir Starmer under pressure to leave, and 1.814/5 to be replaced anywhere from July to September this year, Labour politicians, such as Wes Streeting 16.015/1 and Angela Rayner 6.611/2, have been mulling leadership bids this week.

Burnham looks to be by far the strongest contender but it must be noted that any candidate in a Labour leadership contest to replace Starmer must be an MP.

Streeting has backed Burnham to be Labour's candidate in Makerfield.

The by-election will take place in the north west consituency, part of which is in the Greater Manchester metropolitan area that Burnham has presided over as mayor, after its MP Josh Simons said yesterday he was standing down.

Simons' decision was part of an orchestrated move that is designed to help Burnham return to Westminster as an MP and challenge for the Labour leadership.

Reform second-favourites to win Makerfield by-election

The by-election will be no gimme for Labour even with Burnham as its candidate. Reform are 2.35/4 in a two-horse race (no other party is shorter than 99/1100.00) and Nigel Farage has said his party will throw everthing at winning Makerfield.

In 2024, at the general election, Reform UK took just under a third of the vote and came second to Labour. Simons won by just under 5,500 votes.

At last week's elections in Makerfield Reform won 11 council wards in the constituency.

The local elections saw Reform make considerable games nationwide, although arguably not as many as they would have liked, and they will believe they can make an impact at the by-election.

See the latest Betfair Exchange odds in our graphic

UK - Next General Election

UK General Election, Wednesday 15 August, 8.00am

• 37% Reform UK
• 31% Labour
• 16% Conservatives
• 7% Restore Britain
• 4% Green Party
• 2% Liberal Democrats
• 0% Your Party
• 0% Advance UK
• 0% Workers Party of Britain

With Reform 2.3611/8 favourites to win the most seats at the next general election, many regard Burnham as the politician most capable of reversing Labour's fortunes midterm and delivering a second term in power for the party.

Labour are 3.711/4 to win the most seats when Britons vote in the next general election which is scheduled for 2029.

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