Next General Election: Hung parliament 5/8 after Reform council gains and Labour losses

• Get next general election updates as the odds change on the Betfair Exchange

• Latest on most seats, overall majority betting and more

• Reform make gains at local elections but market says they won't win majority at Westminster

See the latest Betfair Exchange odds in our graphic

UK - Next General Election

UK General Election, Wednesday 15 August, 8.00am

• 34% Labour
• 34% Reform UK
• 18% Conservatives
• 4% Restore Britain
• 3% Green Party
• 2% Liberal Democrats
• 0% Your Party
• 0% Workers Party of Britain
• 0% Advance UK

8 May - Hung parliament odds-on as local election results come in

As local election results trickle in, it remains to be seen whether Reform's gains will be as spectacular as they hoped or Labour's losses as damaging as they feared.

But it is clear that Nigel Farage had a good night and Keir Starmer a bad one.

The former is hailing an "historic shift" in UK politics, the latter says he won't walk away. We will see.

At the moment, the Betfair Exchange makes Reform 2.1211/10 to win the most seats at the next general election. Labour are 4.131/10.

The big thing to note, however, is that a hung parliament is 1.645/8.

Of the parties, Reform have the best chance to win a majority but odds of 4.77/2 indicate they will fall short, because their vote share will not be as big as they would like or because it will not give them the required 326 seats under the UK's first past the post electoral system.

As for Starmer's ailing premiership, and vow to stay on, he is 2.588/5 to be replaced as Labour leader and prime minister in July, August or September this year.

Andy Burnham 3.814/5 is the favourite to be next prime minister. It will be interesting to see if, in the fall out from today's results in the next few days, he makes a move to returning to parliament as an MP and challenging Starmer for the Labour leadership.

Elsewhere in the local elections, The Green Party made progress, taking votes from Labour, and the Lib Dems did ok. There is little enthusiaism for the Conservatives and they are 8.07/1 to win the most seats at the next general election.

27 February - Hung parliament odds-on after Greens win

A hung parliament at the next UK general is 1.75/7 on the Betfair Exchange after the Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer won the Gorton and Denton by-election.

The result, which was predicted by the Betfair Exchange by-election winner market, saw Reform UK finish second and Labour, who won the seat in 2024, pushed into third place.

Reform are 2.915/8 and Labour 3.412/5 to win the most seats at the next election which is scheduled for 2029

To further underline the extraordinary state of UK politics, the Greens 7.413/2 are a shorter price than the Conservatives 8.415/2 and the Liberal Democrats 38.037/1 when it comes to which party will win the most seats. 

Gorton result piles pressure on Starmer with exit this year odds-on

The result in Gorton was a damning verdict on Labour in goverment and Keir Starmer is 1.364/11 to be replaced as the party's leader this year.

The prime minister visited the constituency earlier this week but to no avail, as Labour saw its 13,000 vote majority overturned. 

Under Starmer, Labour has concentrated on winning votes from the right. The strategy worked at the 2024 general election, with voters abandoning the Tories, but Starmer's efforts to see off the challenge from Reform has made Labour vulnerable on the left. 

Under Zack Polanski's leadership, the Greens have surged and their victory in Gorton and Denton - the first ever for the Greens in a by-election - indicates that they are a growing electoral force.

Starmer admitted the result was "very disappointing" but vowed to fight on. It may not be up to him as Labour MPs could take last night's result, and whatever happens at May's local elections, as proof that their party would have a better chance of holding on to power under a different leader.

The 2.265/4 Exchange price on Starmer to be replaced in July to September this year is a sign that bettors think the local elections could seal the PM's fate. 

Angela Rayner is 3.711/4 favourite to replace Starmer and Wes Streeting 7.06/1 comes next in the betting on the Betfair Exchange. 

Mayor of Manchester Andy Burnham, who was blocked by Starmer's allies from standing for Labour in Gorton and Denton, is 14.527/2.

Now get the latest from our live blog on the Next Prime Minister