Nigel Farage: Reform UK short odds-on to win Clacton by-election

Tuesday 7 July 17:40 - Farage short odds-on to win Clacton by-election

Nigel Farage is a short-priced favourite to win the Clacton by-election in early betting on the Betfair Exchange.

Reform UK are just 1.152/13 to win the seat in a by-election triggered by their own candidate, Farage, resigning and vowing to fight against 'the establishment' in the face of allegations of failing to disclose finances.

But despite the unconventional politics at play it has been one-way betting since the market opened with all the money coming for Reform. Having been backed at 1.75/7 when the market opened, Reform are now 1.152/13.

But could that backing be less to do with Farage's popularity and more to do with other parties refusing to fight in a by-election forced on them by Reform?

As Henry Zeffnan reports on the BBC website: "I am hearing from influential Labour figures this afternoon making the case internally that the party - indeed all major parties - should boycott this by-election, arguing that Clacton's voters deserve full transparency before they have their say on his future."

Such a move would almost certainly leave Reform as the only candidate in the race.

Tuesday 7 July 14:30 - Farage resigns and vows to fight Clacton by-election

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage resigned as an MP, saying he was doing so to fight a by-election in his Clacton constituency.

The odds on Farage being replaced as Reform leader this year hit 1.11/10 earlier today but are now out to 2.3211/8.

In a piece of political theatre, Farage lambasted critics, complained about his treatment by the press and police, and claimed the by-election in Clacton would be about "the people v the establishment".

Pity the people of Clacton, you might say, as they will now be subjected to a political circus in the run-up to the by-election which will take place on a date to be decided.

At the 2024 general election, Farage won the seat for Reform UK with over 46% of the vote. The Conservatives came second with just under 28%.

We will have more on the Clacton by-election, including the odds from what is likely to be a lively Betfair Exchange market, in the run up to the vote.

Tuesday 7 July 13:00 - Will Nigel Farage resign?

Betfair Exchange punters backed Nigel Farage to be replaced as Reform UK leader this year after he announced he would make a statement on his political future.

In a fast moving market, Reform are 1.261/4 - a 79% - chance to replace Farage as leader in 2026.

Check out the prices on who will replace Farage as Reform leader as the market takes shape.

Farage has faced allegations for weeks of undeclared gifts and has come under increasing pressure from the media and from some within his own party.

He has reacted furiously to the allegations.

Reform drift on Betfair Exchange

Farage was a key figure in the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union but he only became an MP for the first time at the 2024 general election.

Since then, Reform have increased their number of MPs via defections from the Conservative Party and by winning the Runcorn by-election.

However, their momentum has stalled and, although the party performed well at the local elections in May, they lost two by-elections, in north west of England constituencies which they had targetted.

Reform are out to 4.03/1 to win the next general election, with Labour in to 2.6213/8, but Farage's party were previously favourites.

They have arguably been damaged by the emergence of Restore Britain who are 15.529/2 at the next general election betting on the Betfair Exchange.

Restore's leader Rupert Lowe was previously a Reform MP but left to form his own party, sparking a split on the right of UK politics.

We won't have to wait long to find out what Farage has planned for his future, and he is has made several comebacks, but his critics will hope that this time his momentum has stalled permanently.

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