Clacton By-Election: Betfair Exchange predicts decisive victory for Farage on Thursday

Farage victory in Clacton is 99% chance

A Nigel Farage victory in Thursday's Clacton-By-Election is a 99% chance on the Betfair Exchange after punters backed the Reform UK leader into 1.011/100.

He is 2.427/5 to win 70-80% of the vote share in what Farage will claim is a decisive victory.

And on paper it would be a resounding vote of confidence in the man who resigned as Clacton MP this summer to force a by-election which he wanted to pitch as the people v the establishment.

It has turned out to be Farage v Count Binface 50.049/1, a novelty candidate with no interest in serving as an MP, after Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats declined to stand candidates in a contest that they dismissed as Farage's latest publicity stunt.

So is it any surprise that punters unaninmously agree that Farage will win the seat for Reform UK? If you trigger a contest, as Farage did in Clacton because he was unhappy aobut media investigations into his finances, and none of your serious opponents turn up to take you on, you are probably going to win.

Farage's true test is his plunging popularity

The true test for Farage is likely to come after he has been returned to parliament to serve as Clacton MP and Reform leader. There is likely to be no let up in the pressure from the media and his political rivals in and outside Westmintser.

Favourability ratings for party leaders, based on polling in July, showed 68% of Britons have a negative view of Farage.

Could the man who was once his party's main asset become a liability? Could we see a Reform UK change of leader? If so, Robert Jenrick 2.8415/8, who defected from the Tories after they failed to make him their leader, is the favourite to get the Reform job next.

Reform are 3.4 to win the most seats at the next general election with Labour 2.588/5 overtaking them this summer to become favourites.

That is still a promising position for a party that was established less than half-a-decade ago but a weaker one than they were in after making significant gains at the local elections in May.

It is unwise to write off Farage, who has surprised many opponents with his resilience over the past decade-and-ahalf, and he is still the second favourite at 6.8 to be the UK's next prime minister. Only the Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch 5.2 is a shorter price.

Whatever happens on Thursday, though, the Clacton by-election could turn out to have been nothing more than a comfortable preseason for Farage before the serious business begins.

Now find out how to back Farage to trash Binface at 2/13.00