Next Prime Minister Latest: Burnham the favourite after MP offers Manchester mayor a route back to Westminster

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14 May - Burnham nears even money as MP stands aside

Andy Burnham is the 2.111/10 favcourire for next Labour Leader after a Labour MP stepped aside to allow the Mayor of Manchester a route back into parliament. Burnham needs to be an MP before he can become leader of the Labour party.

Josh Simons, MP for Makersfield, said in a statement: "Today, I am putting the people I represent and the country I love first and will be resigning as MP for Makerfield.

"I am standing aside so that Andy Burnham can return to his home."

That immediately caused a plunge on Burnham, whose odds to be next Labour Leader on the Betfair Exchange shifted from 3.02/1 to around 2.111/10.

Winning the Makersfield by-election will not be easy, however. Odds on a Labour win in the by-election are odds-on but at [1.8] this is no sure thing.

Reform are [2.2] to triumph in the by-election in an area where they recenrly took a large share of the vote in the local elections.

Angela Rayner [7.2] and Wes Streeting [9.6] are the main contenders but it's Burnham who is the clear favourite right now.

Current PM Keir Starmer is 1.330/100 to be replaced as Leader in 2026.

14:00 - Streeting resigns but is only fourth favourite

After prolonged deliberations, Wes Streeting got his act together, eventually, and resigned as health secertary on Thursday lunchtime..

But at 9.417/2 on the Betfair Exchange is only the fourth favourite to be the next prime minister.

Since yesterday, Streeting had been expected to quit the cabinet and challenge Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership. He is yet to do the latter which may mean he doesn't have the support of the 81 MPs required for a leadership challenge.

Andy Burnham 3.211/5 is the favourite but the Mayor of Manchester has not made his intentions clear and it remains to be seen how he can become an MP in time for a leadership contest.

Angela Rayner, who was favourite this morning, is 4.216/5.

For leader Ed Miliband is 8.88/1 to be the UK's next prime minister.

Starmer is [1.3] on the Betfair Exchange to go this year and 1.855/6 to be replaced in the period July to September.

09:30 - Rayner favourite as Streeting prepares challenge to Starmer

Angela Rayner is the 3.7511/4 favourite to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister after an investigation into her tax affairs cleared her of deliberate wrongdoing.

The news paves the way for Rayner to stand in a Labour leadership contest which could be imminent, with Starmer [1.4] on the Betfair Exchange to go this year and 1.768/11 for that to be in the period July to September.

Yesterday, the talk was all about Wes Streeting, who was said to be preparing to resign as health secretary and challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership.

Streeting, though, is out to 8.07/1 to be next prime minister. He is said to be trying to get the support of 81 MPs that is necessary to trigger a Labour leadership contest.

Andy Burnham 4.84/1 a shorter price than Streeting, and so is Ed Miliband 7.87/1, but this morning's news means Rayner has the market momentum.

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12 May - Starmer under pressure latest

15:00 - Ministers resign and tell Starmer to do same

Keir Starmer is 1.222/9 on the Betfair Exchange to be replaced as Labour leader this year after Jess Phillips became the first government minister to resign.

Earlier today, Starmer told a meeting of his cabinet that he would not be resigning as prime minister.

Phillips subsequently quit the government, followed by two more ministers, and all called on Starmer to go.

He is 1.748/11 to be replaced this summer, in the period July to September, which is a bigger price than the 1.454/9 for that outcome this morning.

Starmer appears to be determined to hold on in Downing Street which could make his removal more protracted than some hoped.

But he is still under a lot of pressure and voices telling him the game is up are increasingly high-profile.

Andy Burnham 3.3512/5 continues to be the favourite in the market on who will replace Starmer as PM. A

A drawn-out Starmer exit could buy Burnham time to extricate himself from the Manchester mayoralty and find a way back to parliament via a by-election.

Wes Streeting 4.67/2 is the other leading contender. As a sitting MP, he is ready to challenge Starmer but has not done so yet and some interpreted Starmer's message to cabinet this morning as a direct provocation to Streeting to try his luck.

Angela Rayner 5.24/1 and Ed Miliband 9.28/1, who lead Labour to election defeat in 2015, are also both being talked about as potential successors to Starmer.

09:30 - Odds tumble on Starmer summer exit

The Betfair Exchange odds on Keir Starmer stepping down and being replaced this year tumbled to 1.162/13 - 2/131.15 and an 87% chance - on Tuesday morning after the number of MPs telling him to leave increased to over 70.

With an announcement on his future potentially coming today, the prime minister is 1.454/9 on the Exchange to be replaced this summer.

Starmer attempted to save his leadership with a speech yesterday but many MPs felt it was too little too late and called for him to leave. Last night, four junior frontbench Labour MPs resigned and called for Starmer to go.

This morning it was reported that both home secretary Shabana Mahmood and foreign secretary Yvette Cooper had told Starmer to consider setting out a timetable for his departure.

This morning's cabinet meeting is viewed as make or break for Starmer. If ministers round on Starmer, it could precipitate a decision from the PM.

Wes Streeting is being talked up as a potential replacement, with MPs who support the health secretary among those calling for Starmer to step down.

But Streeting is not the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the UK's next prime minister. Andy Burnham 3.711/4 still leads the market with Streeting 4.77/2.

But as mentioned in yesterday's update below, and countless times before, Burnham is not an MP and will need to become one if he is to stand for leader of the Labour Party.

Angela Rayner 5.49/2 is another leading contender, although she had to stand down as depty PM last year over her tax affairs and may struggle for support in a leadership contest.

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11 May - Starmer odds-on to leave this year

Keir Starmer's reign as prime minister will end this year and his most likely successor is Andy Burnham. That's according to the latest Betfair Exchange odds on the uncertainty engulfing the Labour party.

A Starmer exit in 2026 is 1.528/15 and it could happen this summer, with Betfair punters backing July to September in to 2.226/5 favouritism in the month of departure market.

Starmer promised today to prove his doubters wrong as he delivered a major speech in response to Labour's disastrous local elections results.

All weekend Labour MPs called for Starmer to step down and one, Catherine West, said she would challenge the PM as a leadership contest stalking horse.

West said today she had changed her mind but called on the PM to go by September.

The Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is 3.412/5 to be te UK's next prime minister but it must be remembered that he is not an MP which means he is unable to challenge Starmer for the Labour leadership.

Burnham is said to be exploring options that would help him become an MP, possibly with an MP in a north west constituency stepping down to trigger a by-election in which Burnham would hope to be the Labour candidate. It is not, however a straight-forward road to parliament for Burnham.

Other leading contenders for next Labour leader include Angela Rayner, who is 5.85/1 to be next PM, Wes Streeting 6.25/1 and Ed Miliband 9.28/1.

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5 May - Burnham has market momentum

Andy Burnham is the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the UK's next prime minister.

The Manchester mayor, who is 3.39/4 at the time of writing, has been building momentum at the same time as news reports that he is sounding out Labour MPs in north west constituences who would be prepared to steo down and make way for Burnham to stand in a by-election.

Burnham wanted to be Labour's candidate in the Gorton by-election earlier this year but was blocked by Labour's NEC. Labour went on to lost the by-election to the Green Party and there have recent reports said he will not meet the same resistance next time.

Former-deputy PM Angela Rayner 4.57/2 is the second favourite, so the market indicates there is little in it between the Manchester mayor and Ashton-under-Lyne MP.

Both will be contenders if Thursday's local elections go as badly as predicted for Labour and Starmer steps down this summer.

21 April - Bettors back Starmer to be replaced in July to September 2026

Another day of revelations concerning Peter Mandelson's appointment as UK ambassador to Washington saw bettors back Keir Starmer to leave as prime minister this summer.

Starmer is 1.422/5 to be replaced as Labour leader this year and more specifically he is 2.427/5 to go any time during the July to September period.

Olly Robbins, who was sacked from the Foreign Office last week, told an committee today that there was "immense pressure" from the cabinet to clear Mandelson's appointment.

Robbins didn't directly contradict Starmer's version of events but the former-civil servant did say number 10 was trying to find a diplomatic job for the disgraced former-Labour peer Matthew Doyle.

That revelation could shock Labour MPs - the people who will decide Starmer's future as their leader and ultimately prime minister.

The market on who will succeed Starmer has seen movement too, with favourite Angela Rayner shortening to 3.55/2 while Ed Mililband 8.07/1 overtook Wes Streeting 9.08/1 and Andy Burnham moved in to 10.09/1.

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20 April - Odds tumble on Starmer exit in 2026

The Betfair Exchange odds on Keir Starmer leaving this year shortened to 1.331/3 on Monday as the prime minister faced a grilling in the House of Commons.

Starmer is being quizzed on what he knew about Peter Mandelson's failure to pass security vetting before his appoinment as ambassador to the US. Some commentators are calling it "judgement day" for the PM.

The PM is just 6.25/1 to lead Labour into next general election which they are 3.8514/5 to win with Reform UK 2.56/4 favourites. The Betfair Exchange makes a hung parliament, in which no party wins a majority, odds-on at 1.75/7.

When news of Mandelson's security vetting failure broke on Friday, Starmer said it was "staggering" that he had not been told of it. He moved quickly to sack Olly Robbins, the Foreign Office's most senior civil servant, only to be criticised for throwing Robbins under the bus. It was reported over the weekend that Robbins was seeking legal advice over his dismissal. 

Whatever happens in the House of Commons today, the pressure on Starmer is immense and his premiership is starting to look as doomed as those of Tory prime ministers Theresa May and Boris Johnson who tried to survive before eventually resigning.

Who will succeed Starmer as prime minister?

It is less than two years since Starmer led Labour to a landslide general election victory. But he is really feeling the heat at a moment when Labour are prepare for local elections on 7 May - just over a fortnight away. 

If, as expected, Labour perform badly next month, it could prompt a leadership challenge from within the party. 

Starmer is 2.68/5 to be replaced as Labour leader between July and September. Angela Rayner is 3.6553/20 to be the next prime minister, followed by Wes Streeting 7.87/1, then Ed Miliband 11.010/1.

At the weekend, there were reports that Andy Burnham 13.525/2, who is currently Mayor of Manchester and not an MP, was again looking at ways to return to parliament and potentially mount a Labour leadership bid. 

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17 April - Starmer odds-on to go in 2026

The Betfair Exchange odds on Keir Starmer leaving this year shortened to 1.491/2 after Downing Street was again rocked by revelations concerning Peter Mandelson.

The PM is just 1.162/13 to leave office before the next general election.

Starmer said it was "staggering" that he was not told that Mandelson failed security vetting for his appointment as UK ambassador to Washington. 

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and the Liberal Democrats' Ed Davey both called for the prime minister to resign on Friday as the fall out continued. 

Starmer responded to the news by sacking the Foreign Office's most senior civil servant Olly Robbins but critics say Robbins is merely a scapegoat for the prime minister's errors.

The development comes as Labour prepare for local elections on 7 May. They are expected to perform badly - an outcome which would pile pressure on Starmer and could lead to a leadership challenge from within the Labour Party. 

He is 2.727/4 to be replaced as Labour leader between July and September. Angela Rayner is 3.6553/20 to be the next prime minister, followed by Ed Miliband 11.010/1 and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage 12.523/2. 

Reform are 2.56/4 to win the most seats at the next general election, with Labour 3.8514/5.

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9 February - Betfair punters back Starmer to leave

15:00 - Starmer exit backed as Scottish Labour leader tells PM to quit

The Betfair Exchange price on Keir Starmer leaving Downing Street continued to shorten on Tuesday afternoon after Labour's Scottish leader, Anas Sarwar, called on the prime minister to resign.

Starmer is 1.222/9 (an 82% chance) to be replaced as Labour leader this year, while the price on him leaving before 1 April shortened to 4.77/2. 

Read today's earlier update below to see how the odds on Starmer's exit have shortened today.

Sarwar is the first high-profile Labour politician to call for Starmer to go. The Scottish Labour leader is keen to distance himself from his counterpart south of the border and said the situation in Downing Street was causing distractions which were damaging for Scotland.

Sarwar is concerned that Starmer's leadership in Westminster could damage Labour's chances at this year's Scottish election.

Starmer is 2.3411/8 to leave as Labour leader in the period April to June but the odds on him leaving sooner are shortening, with January to March 4.67/2.  

13:30 - Starmer's aides resign as punters back 2026 exit for PM

Angela Rayner is the favourite on the Betfair Exchange to be the next prime minister after punters backed Keir Starmer to leave Downing Street this year. 

Rayner is 3.613/5 on the Exchange to get the top job as Starmer fights for his political life amid the continuing fallout from Peter Mandelson's links to Jeffrey Epstein.

Today Downing Street insisted Starmer would not be resigning but he is 1.271/4 (a 78% chance) to leave this year.

Betfair opened a market on whether Starmer will be gone by 1 April. He is 5.69/2 be out by then, and 1.182/11 to survive beyond that date, but the UK prime minister is under enormous pressure and is 2.68/5 to leave in the period April to June this year. The outcome of May's Local Elections could go a long way to determining whether Starmer stays. 

This morning, Starmer's head of communications resigned, following the PM's top advisor Morgan McSweeney, who quit yesterday, out of the number 10 door.

The resignations prompted further speculation about whether or not Starmer can survive much longer in Downing Street.

As mentioned, punters think Rayner has the best chance of succeeding him. The health secretary Wes Streeting will also be a contender for the top job and he is 5.69/2 to be the next prime minister.  

Starmer is expected to address his MPs tonight in what commentators are calling a key 48 hours for his premiership. 

The Gorton and Denton by-election in two weeks is also key for Starmer, as his party try to see off challenges from the Green Party and Reform UK in a constituency Labour won at the last general election. The Greens are 1.84/5 favourites to win there. Labour are a distant third in the Betfair Exchange betting at 10.09/1.

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Get the latest on the Gorton and Denton By-Election betting

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