• Trump holds the advantage

• Biden withdrawal has reframed race

• Harris likely to gain further momentum

There are now 100 days until the U.S. Presidential Election, a political event that will capture global attention like no other and also a betting event beyond compare. In the last two cycles the Betfair Exchange's Election Winner market smashed the all-time record for turnover.

Will we see another record? It's a tall order, but much likelier following events during an incredibly dramatic July. In the aftermath of Joe Biden's catastrophic debate performance, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, the election was beginning to look like a no contest. But the week following Biden's withdrawal and endorsement of Kamala Harris has reset the race.

Harris's odds have fallen from 4.3100/30 upon Biden's announcement to 2.68/5 this morning. Game on!

100-day trend points firmly to Trump

Historic trends are nevertheless against Harris. During Betfair's history, the only winning candidate who wasn't favourite at this stage was Trump, in 2016, and he still lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by almost 3M. Consequently, America is still awaiting it's first female President. The last time an incumbent President withdrew, (Lyndon Johnson in 1968), his party lost.

Having bet on every election from 2004 onwards, I can say with certainty that there has never been one which felt less predictable. Win or lose, I always held a strong opinion at this stage. In 2024, I could make a case for anything, including extreme wins for either side.

We are currently in a strange, unique period. Biden's ageing has dominated the news for a month and now, suddenly, there is more energy and excitement around his party than at any time since Barack Obama became the nominee. Expect that honeymoon to last until the Democratic National Convention on Aug 19-22. But we won't know the answers to the key questions until later. For now, they are being crowded out by noise.

Was Biden the problem?

The biggest of those questions regards to what extent Trump's lead over Biden was solid. Based on him or his policies, accomplishments, the ideology of either party. Rather than simply opposition or lack of belief in Biden.

It wasn't just the debate - that merely confirmed and amplified the problem. We politicos constantly forget that, while we discuss policy, ideology, legislative achievements, the daily infowar on social media, the average swing voter does not.

During the Biden years, whenever I have spoken to non-politicos, in multiple countries, his age always came up. And that includes loads who would never dream of supporting Trump. Memes, or doctored footage have spread on an industrial scale and Biden was an unsuitable candidate for that modern aspect of politics.

Has Trump's position really improved?

In November 2022, following a Republican underperformance at the mid-term elections, the commentariat was writing off Trump. His preferred candidates had proved a dismal failure, often making the party look ridiculous. It was assumed the same dynamics that had meant the GOP lost the House, Senate and Presidency under Trump were still in place. That, what Biden labelled 'MAGA Republicans', were toxic and likely to be rejected by a majority of Americans.

Have things fundamentally changed? Yes, Trump defied that narrative to dominate the GOP primary, but also suffered a notable revolt from Nikki Haley voters, representing an old form of Republicanism that Trump is dead set against. His approvals have risen a little, but are only around 42%, with high strong disapprovals. There is some polling evidence that more voters remember his tenure positively. Support among groups likelier to lean Democrat - young, minority voters - grew.

But, when he was on trial and convicted, a majority of voters were against him, as during both impeachments, over Jan 6th, over a wide range of (weaponised) cultural issues throughout his time in politics. The idea that being shot would change Trump, tone down the rhetoric, pivot to the centre, has already been exposed as an absurd talking point.

Senate races are a positive sign for Harris

The polling from key Senate races, in the battleground states, suggest the problem was indeed Biden. He was underperforming Ruben Gallego (Arizona), Bob Casey (Pennsylvania), Jacky Rosen (Nevada), Tammy Baldwin (Wisconsin) and Elissa Slotkin (Michigan) by up to double-digits. The idea that this famously polarised country, in which the small percentage of 'persuadables' shrinks every cycle, was set to ticket-split to these levels, always looked dubious.

This is why the reset is so critical. Instead of being a match between two old white men with low approvals, the election is now a fight for the image, and soul, of America. A mixed race, black, unapologetically liberal woman with a Jewish family versus Trump's rejection of modern America, targeting of immigrants and racist, misogynist base. In picking J.D. Vance as a running mate rather than a woman or minority, Trump reaffirmed that framing.

We see already some sceptics 'coming home' for Harris. We saw it in record voter registration and money raising last week. Biden simply couldn't effectively communicate with or energise young voters. When abortion rights and racism are on the ballot, picking an old, white man was always a dubious strategy. Already Harris has a TikTok army. The Democrats suddenly look formidable.

But Harris also has plenty of potential weaknesses. Unlike Biden, against whom the Trump attacks never really landed in 2020, the Harris brand is Liberal. Her state of California is frequently held up as all that is wrong with Liberalism. Her past talk of police reform will be portrayed as being in line with ruinous 'Defund the Police' rhetoric. Her past opposition to fracking in the all-important state of Pennsylvania could prove very costly.

My updated position

Hopefully regular readers are sitting pretty on the basis of my earlier advice on these markets. Last Christmas, I explained how laying other candidates (mostly Trump and Biden), had created a +300 unit position on Harris and others, whilst losing 40 units on each of the big-two. Later, I tipped Harris at 84/1 and 49/1, along with 16.5 for the nomination. There were also a couple of doomed trades on Biden but, after tweaking during the recent nomination, my book is now Trump level, Harris +500 units.

What next? For the reasons laid out above, I am open minded about the eventual result. However in the short-term, I expect polls and the market to move further towards Harris. Towards the even contest which we have become accustomed to in US elections. For now at least, I'm not laying back.

Now read US Election 2024: Who will be the Democrat VP pick?