US Election: Who will be the Democratic Vice President pick?

• Decision may be at advanced stage

• Electoral college is the key determinant

• Mark Kelly has a unique appeal

Just one week after we landed an 8/1 winner on J.D. Vance to be the Republican Vice Presidential Nominee, the Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee market has sprung to life following Joe Biden's withdrawal.

Although she has not yet been officially confirmed, the betting signals very firmly indicate that Kamala Harris will win the nomination and be making that decision. She is trading at 1.051/20 on the Betfair Exchange, with only Michelle Obama 40.039/1 and Hillary Clinton 70.069/1 trading at odds lower than 300/1.

Dem VP race will be short and sweet

Before getting to the main contenders to be her running mate, it is worth stressing numerous key differences between these two markets. The Republican race lasted for several months, and dozens of candidates were considered in strong contention at some stage. This one will be short and sweet as we can expect the winner to be confirmed prior to the Democratic National Convention on August 19th.

Nowhere near as many candidates are in contention. Media reports, combined with plenty of electoral logic, imply the field is down to half a dozen or so candidates. Our betting list is dominated by six white men, which would ensure a balanced ticket on race and gender.

A key feature of Donald Trump's choice was whether he could find an ideological partner, particularly regarding foreign policy. Whether his VP's loyalty could be relied upon.

In contrast, all the leading Democrats are onboard with the Biden/Harris agenda. All endorsed her very quickly after Biden did so. None of the Republicans were expected to especially improve his chances of winning a particular key state. Whereas in the Democrat case, that is probably the key calculation.

Regarding the short time-frame, we must assume the Harris campaign has considered this question carefully, for months if not years. As Biden's campaign unravelled in the past few weeks under pressure from Democrat powerbrokers, they must have been vetting the candidates. It may well be that there is already a name lined up. The nomination is being finalised as we speak, with Nancy Pelosi endorsing Harris, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries running close behind. I wouldn't rule out an announcement within the next seven to ten days.

Mark Kelly has a rock-solid case

Arizona Senator Mark Kelly stormed to clear favouritism earlier today, matched at odds-on 1.910/11 but has fallen back at the time of writing at around 3.55.

Of the six swing states that will determine the electoral college, Arizona has looked particularly problematic for the Democrats. The Fivethirtyeight average had Trump 5.5% ahead of Biden. Yet the Grand Canyon State has elected Kelly twice, including by a comfortable 5% margin over MAGA candidate Blake Masters in 2022 - at a time when the Biden administration was expected to struggle. Win this state and Harris will very likely become President.

Kelly is regarded as moderate, relatively bipartisan and independent-minded. His success in a once-red state has been built on Independent voters.

His backstory is perfect. A former astronaut, he is married to former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, who was shot in 2011. Nobody is better placed to argue against right-wing extremism. He was very swift to endorse Harris and their two families are reportedly close.

Whilst Kelly's case is undoubtably solid, there are negatives. Kelly has been critical of the adminstration's border policies - which will be attributed to Harris. Plus there will always be some reluctance for the Democrats to give up a Senate seat. Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs would appoint a replacement until a special election in 2026, so the problem is not immediate, but that is still two years earlier than Kelly's next scheduled election.

Josh Shapiro tops four shortlisted Governors

That dilemma about losing a precious Senate seat strengthens the case for picking a state Governor instead. Here, the Democrats have at least four decent options.

Josh Shapiro opened as favourite before being temporarily usurped by Kelly. He's now back in front, trading around 2.77/4. Were he the pick, a Democrat Lieutenant-Governor would take over in Pennsylvania.

Again, the electoral college is the key calculation. Pennsylvania is absolutely essential to any Democrat candidate. Biden's deficit to Trump in a purple state that has generally trended blue, where he grew up and never tires of referencing, was arguably the strongest polling reason for him to withdraw.

Shapiro won the 2022 gubernatorial election here by a huge 15% margin, albeit against a very extreme and frankly terrible Republican candidate. He has a great approval rating in the high fifties and was praised across the partisan divide over his handling of the assassination attempt on Trump in the state.

Cooper could bring North Carolina into play

North Carolina isn't among the six swing states but it is a legitimate Democrat target. Trump won by less than 1.5% in 2020 and Obama won it narrowly back in 2008. The Biden campaign was targeting it and both he and Harris have been regular visitors.

Their key ally there is the current Governor, Roy Cooper, who cannot stand again, thus removing any of the replacement issues. Again, win this state and Harris will be President. Arguably, the combination of a black woman and respected Governor gives the Democrats their best chance of winning NC since that Obama victory.

Andy Beshear could prove electoral gold

Andy Beshear is a name very much on my radar for the future.

He is the twice elected Governor of deep red Kentucky and a very big prospect once breaking through on the national stage. A popular white man from the South is electoral gold to the Democrats in any era, enabling them to cut through to usual GOP voters in ways others can't. Think Bill Clinton, who was Governor of Arkansas before becoming President.

If the nomination had been a lengthy, open process, Beshear could have been a serious candidate for the main prize. Harris is certainly right to shortlist him.

.@GovTimWalz: "People like JD Vance know nothing about small town America... He gets it all wrong. It's not about hate." pic.twitter.com/Z5E3SGdqB4

-- Morning Joe (@Morning_Joe) July 23, 2024

The fourth Governor reported to be on the shortlist is from Minnesota. This is a state the Democrats expect to win, but where Trump was getting worryingly close. Indeed, he was tied with Biden according to the 538 average. Tim Walz has won two gubernatorial elections here, by decisive margins. If yesterday's interview on Morning Joe is a guide, he would bring plenty to the ticket.

Today, reports say Pete Buttigieg is in contention too. Now Transportation Secretary, the former primary contender remains one of the smoothest communicators in the party. He will be a key surrogate for Harris. However as a gay man, including him on the ticket would be a gamble (albeit a winnable one in a country that is more tolerant than is often credited) and he doesn't bring any states into play like the others do.

I think we should restrict considerations to these six. Yes, others in the betting have interesting profiles. Gretchen Whitmer is Governor of Michigan and widely seen as a future Presidential candidate. She was high on Biden's shortlist for VP last time. However she is already a co-chair of the Harris campaign. I can't realistically see the Democrats going for an all-female ticket.

So who wins? When Biden withdrew on Sunday, my instant thoughts were Shapiro and Kelly. On the basis that winning Arizona and Pennsylvania must outweigh all other considerations. Nationwide, I think Kelly is the superior pick. He has a personal story, and brand, that goes beyond politics.

An adviser to Kamala Harris told @playbookdc that "the Midwest is not where the opportunity is for her...The opportunity with her ... is going to be Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania."

Which

I went through a bunch of map scenarios.

Here's a few:

-- Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza) July 24, 2024

Note this interesting thread from earlier today from CNN's Chris Cilizza. If an accurate reflection of thinking in the Harris camp, it reinforces the case for Kelly and Cooper at Shapiro's expense. And whilst Cooper does have a lot going for him, Arizona is clearly more winnable than North Carolina.

This is a tricky betting heat, based on the opinions of individuals about which we can only guess. The decision may already be at a very advanced stage. I think the betting order has the correct front three, amongst whom Kelly gets my verdict at current odds.

Now read US Election 2024: Mark Kelly is the new Dem VP favourite as Harris closes the gap on Trump