US Election: Are things beginning to turn Biden's way?

• Democrat nomination looks secure

• SOTU dispelled cognitive smears

• Trump can no longer unite Republicans

It has been a significant couple of weeks in the US Election. Following Nikki Haley's withdrawal after Super Tuesday, effectively securing the Republican Nomination for Donald Trump, Joe Biden wrapped up the Democratic Nomination.

Disasters not withstanding, both men will be confirmed at the party conventions this summer.

According to our Election Winner betting, Trump remains favourite at around even money but Biden has improved his chance from 25% in the wake of the Hur Report into his retention of classified documents - which portrayed him as a kindly, frail old man with a weak memory - to 35% today at odds of 2.8415/8.

Democrat rivals falling away fast

The differential can be explained by alternative Democrats falling back. Michelle Obama's odds have doubled to 26.025/1. Likewise Gavin Newsom is out to 38.037/1, Kamala Harris to 50.049/1. One must assume bettors thought Biden would struggle in the primary, forcing a rethink. Evidently, that hasn't happened and isn't yet. Even 1.182/11 for the nomination looks generous.

That good news, however, has not been replicated in polls. Biden's approval rating remains terribly low at 38.4%. National polls for the general election remain roughly tied.

Trump still faring better than past elections

I must reiterate how bad these numbers are by comparison to the last two elections. In both, Trump trailed badly, consistently, with opposition to him appearing entrenched. The daily controversy and excesses made the Democrats' task easier. Yet he still managed to win in 2016 and outperform the polls in 2020.

Time has been something of a healer, with some voters remembering the economy better than it actually was, or not rewarding Biden's good economic numbers. His approval is down by almost a third on the 2020 peak. Reuniting the coalition of anti-Trumpers that earned 81M votes looks a very tall order.

Nevertheless, I do not believe all is lost. In fact, I have a feeling we will look back on this period as the worst time for Biden. That things could be turning his way, or about to.

Hur testimony undermined his own report

Special Counsel Robert Hur testified before Congress last week and it was very clear that his report was hardly the bombshell initially trailed. The transcript did not match the briefing and hype. After decades of frequent investigations, US voters will be weary of such reports and this looked very much a partisan hatchet job by a Trump-appointed judge. Hur even said at one point that Biden had a photographic memory.

Swalwell: You said to President Biden, "you appear to have a photographic understanding and recall." Did you say that?

Hur: Those words do appear in the transcript

Swalwell: Never appeared in your report

Hur: It does not appear in my report pic.twitter.com/jKJA6HCesd

-- Acyn (@Acyn) March 12, 2024

Moreover, Biden's performance at the State of the Union went a long way to dispel claims of cognitive decline. He emerged triumphant while the Republican's official responder Katie Britt swiftly became embroiled in controversy over her blatant 'post-truth' in trying to associate Biden with Mexican cartels sex-trafficking during the Bush administration.

Whether you agree with Biden's politics or not, last night demonstrated once and for all that he is in perfectly good cognitive health. No 81 year-old who wasn't could talk solidly, coherently, strategically for 68 minutes like that. https://t.co/Wmzn8Xq7qo

-- Political Gambler (@paulmotty) March 8, 2024

It's worth watching every second of this video exposing Katie Britt's dishonesty pic.twitter.com/MOS7VqbDPs

-- Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 9, 2024

He has another big date tonight, at the annual Washington Gridiron Dinner. This event is for journalists and D.C. types. A stage to tell jokes at your opponents and own expense. To show you are a good sport. I expect a Washington veteran like Biden will breeze it, and the jokes about Trump will be cutting. Expect plenty of reference to his opponent's cognitive decline.

Trump's coalition is fractured

Furthermore Trump's problems are coming to the fore, and they are significant. As effectively the incumbent, his primary win was not so impressive. Nikki Haley won a large share, many of whom are committed to not voting for Trump. Her lack of endorsement is a major blow, as indeed is the opposition from most senior members of his administration.

Especially Mike Pence, who publicly came out yesterday against Trump. I am pretty certain this is without precedent. A former VP refusing to back their boss. The Republican coalition is also fraying, perhaps to worse effect.

Mike Pence on Fox News: "It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year." pic.twitter.com/luOM21uBLv

-- Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) March 15, 2024

Biden has been written off many times during his long career. Most recently in the 2020 primary. That victory was followed by Kremlin-backed smears about Tara Reade (now a Russia Today employee). That nonsense swamped the Internet but turned out to be a nothing-burger. Four years of noise about Hunter Biden - not even a US government employee - has resulted in the 'whistleblower' being charged with lying to the FBI, which he blames on Russian intelligence. Biden's opponents aren't so smart.