US Election: Why women voters could win it for Kamala Harris

• Harris campaign is energising women voters

• Could they swing it for vice president against the odds?

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Women make up 51.1% of the US population. They tend to vote more than men do and are leaning heavily towards Kamala Harris. That why, even though Donald Trump is the 4/71.57 (a 63% chance) favourite on the Betfair Exchange, Harris 9/52.80 (36%) may be the value bet.

Early voting is already showing a 10% lead for Harris in some swing states, with numbers even beginning to exceed the record 2020 voting levels.

The Harris campaign has made no secret of courting female voters, making the massive issue of abortion rights a priority for her campaign and pledging to immediately restore abortion access if elected.

Trump is offering no such promises. He flip-flops between denying his involvement in the removal of Roe v Wade and pledging even harsher restrictions if he wins a second term. These lines aren't proving too popular with women and are pushing their votes even further away.

Abortion issue is energising women voters

When abortion has been up as a ballot issue, voters have chosen to keep full access. Even red states such as Kansas, which Harris could never hope to win in the election, voted to protect abortion access.

It mobilises women like nothing else, with 52% saying they will vote for Harris.

Young women, in particular, are being energised to vote at record levels, with 59% saying they'd vote for Harris. Pushing away that enduring myth that young people don't vote, they do if you get them angry enough.

You can't hide from the fact that people have died, been the victims of complications and suffered from unbearable pain which would have been prevented only two years ago. Women are now at risk of potentially fatal laws in 14 states and counting.

With even more states restricting timelines on when they can access the procedure, many women face the reality that they have less freedom than they did just two years ago.

Only one candidate is offering them a lifeline back to safety. If it was me, I'd take it.

Women voters may be 2024's silent majority

The "silent majority" was a term used by Trump in 2016 to explain the voters who agreed with what he said and liked the way he said it but didn't want to publicly support him. Now the scales might have been tipped the other way.

Harris is going after all women, even the ones in Republican strongholds who would have voted for Trump before. These women will belong to states that are heavily Republican, who will come from families and live in towns with traditional views of gender and harsh views on abortion.

They are likely to keep their support for Harris secret, but abortion is not an issue to be swept under a rug. If there is anything to turn a would-be female Trump supporter into a Harris voter it would be winning back their freedom.

Quiet campaign could be story of election

Along the same theme of secrecy is the 'post-it note campaign', a women-powered initiative to spread the word that Harris is the ticket back to freedom. Placed on pavements, in public bathrooms and on gym mirrors are little notes to women out there who might feel pressure to vote for Trump but want to get their rights back.

The notes are filled with messages "Woman to woman: No one sees your vote at the polls. Vote Harris/Walz". They are reminders that there are no eyes in the ballot box and a vote for Harris won't get you excommunicated from the country club.

This quiet campaign could be the story of this election, a silent and scared majority of women supporting each other to vote for their rights and restore their freedoms. Woman to woman, wouldn't you do the same?

The Swifty effect

Another play to appeal to voters has been celebrity endorsements, ranging from Beyonce (pictured above with Harris) to Bruce Springsteen but only one has had a very measured impact on young women. The Eras tour artist herself Taylor Swift.

After Taylor publicly endorsed Harris on Instagram, voting registration jumped by 340,000 in 24 hours. She has reached apathetic fans and turned them into engaged voters. They have begun campaigning in swing states and raised huge sums of money to push for Harris.

The Swifty voting base has been triggered into action and they might have a real impact.

And the winner is....

From polls to popstars, women have been mobilised like never before. If Harris wins the presidency, she'll owe it to women voters.

At 51% of the population, they can certainly make a big difference on 5 November when America decides.

Now read US Election: Five questions for the final week