• Trump gamble vindicated and trend sustained

• Swing states all still on a knife-edge

• Is it all down to the undecideds now?

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One week out, from an election legitimately described as the most critically important of our lifetimes, and Donald Trump's stranglehold on the betting is getting tighter by the day.

Odds of 1.584/7 imply a 63% chance that he'll be the Election Winner, which is slightly higher than the polling models, in which he is also rated ahead. What next?

Will the Trump surge be sustained?

Without clear movement in state polls, I expect the trajectory will be sustained. As discussed earlier, there are fundamental reasons why Trump is more popular in the betting and, even if the earlier gamble on him seemed a little hasty, it has been vindicated.

As things stand, he is entitled to be favourite, has momentum and his odds will probably shorten further. If Harris remains 1.4% ahead on the Fivethirtyeight polling average, as she does today, I reckon Trump goes into election night trading around 1.42/5.

What could reverse it? Meaningful evidence that Harris is winning where she needs to. If high-quality polls show her ahead in enough key states, she has a clear path to victory. As it stands, the average polling gap in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is no more than 0.5% either way.

Win that trio and Harris wins the electoral college. The other swing states are far from lost either, particularly Georgia and Arizona, based on recent high-grade polling.

How will the undecideds break?

The tallies for these Fivethirtyeight polling averages amount to around 95%, leaving 5% of the electorate either voting third party or undecided. So, if we simplistically assume the polling of the former is accurate and immovable, the latter 5% will likely determine the election.

In both 2016 and 2020, late deciders broke hard for Trump. That at least partly explains his overperformance compared to the polling averages. Unless high-quality polls emerge showing a shift to Harris, the market is bound to assume Trump's share will pick up late again.

However, the trend may very well be reversed this time, set against a different context. At the 2022 midterms, late deciders broke hard to the Democrats facing Trumpian Senate candidates in swing states.

There is also some logic to Harris picking up late deciders. She has been on top of the ticket, and the forefront of voters' minds for a tiny fraction of Trump's time. She has superior approvals and still has growth potential. He rarely converts an opponent.

Third-party voters could well make the difference. A deep fear on the Harris side is that anti-Israel voters will flip to Jill Stein or Cornel West. Both are on the Michigan ballot.

How big will be the gender turnout gap be?

As explained last week, I am very open to the idea of a decent-sized polling miss in either direction, and nothing blindsides a pollster more than differential turnout - where one side is better motivated than the other. For me, this is the key question of the final week. Who votes?

Polls show a gender divide of around or more than 30%. Women comprised 52% of the 2020 electorate. If that rose to 53-54%, it would probably prove decisive. Early voter data suggests women lead men 55-45. Beware reading too much into any early vota data, though, or at least yet.

Will MAGA extremism damage Trump?

The Trump network have never done conventional. So the idea of holding a mass rally in Madison Square Garden displaying the undiluted face of MAGA, knowing full well it would invite comparisons with the Nazi rally at the same New York venue in 1939, was to be expected.

One who thought the election would be determined by the 5% of undecideds would consider such a plan to be madness. Evidently, Trump and J.D. Vance believe riling up the base and triggering the libs is a better way to frame their closing message. Just a few hours after Trump's former Chief-of-Staff labeled him as a fascist who admires Hitler.

On numbers, it makes little sense. Surely there can't be many racists on the fence at this stage. This is the most likely explanation between Republican underperformance in 2022. The more the public see the extremism, misogyny, election-denial and conspiracy madness, the faster they turn away.

Can Harris get her message through?

Those conventional voices would also claim running away from TV debates and numerous mainstream media opportunities was madness, but Trump hasn't been damaged one bit. This is method, not madness.

The effects of throwing petrol on to racism and more generally, culture wars, are widespread. They can indeed 'trigger the libs' into over-reaction but, more importantly, they 'flood the zone with shit' (to quote Steve Bannon). In the age of information-overload, there is little bandwidth left for people to think critically about politics.

Rather than any personal defects, I think her achilles heel has simply been inability to cut through. A conventional politician needs legacy media and set-piece events. Harris dominated the first debate, surged in the polls, but since Trump opted to swerve more debates or head-to-head interviews andevents, her lead has narrowed.

Solid performances on Fox News, 60 Minutes and others were instantly forgotten. Trump's fame means he is not reliant on mainstream media and fares best when swerving their scrutiny.

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