• More than 60m Americans have voted already

• There's been a big swing to Trump in Nevada betting

• Early Blue Wall voters strongly favour Harris

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At this late stage in the process, it is worth reflecting on what we are actually betting on. More than 60 million people have already voted - well over a third of the eventual tally. Of the remainder, 5% at most are genuinely persuadable.

This isn't like a sporting event, where the outcome hinges on the performance of players and execution of tasks. Virtually everybody who seriously intends to vote will do so, and very few of those will change their mind. If we could accurately measure the numbers of these people and which way they swing, we would know the result.

So in effect, we are betting on that - the composition of the electorate. Towards which, polls are a useful, yet flawed, guide. As explained earlier, there are at least five ways in which the polls could be systemically wrong, and the effects could work to either Trump or Harris's advantage.

Follow the early vote, state by state

We can now add a substantial bank of early vote data into the mix. We can follow the numbers from each state here. But how much can we actually learn from this data and are there are any signals regarding whom it would benefit?

As ever, approach this information with caution. Both sides are relentlessly pushing one-sided narratives. There is no way of knowing how people have actually voted. We can draw inference from party registration, but the correlation is not perfect. In any case, independent voters tend to prove to be the decisive cohort? How, for instance, are the registered Republicans who determinedly vote against Trump in their primary breaking? They cannot be assumed to be Trump voters.

Let's start with Nevada. Why? Because this is a state with a long history of early voting. Around two-thirds of the electorate has already voted. And critically, local election guru Jon Ralston is one of the few early vote analysts whom everybody reveres. I can endorse too, after previous superb election calls. Follow his blog!

The early voting blog is updated.

Brief one.

Clark a wash, rurals and Washoe to GOP today.

One more day of in-person:https://t.co/Pl43XBMcPA

-- Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) November 1, 2024

Republicans faring much better in Nevada

Ralston thinks the Republicans are ahead. His daily blog notes the impressive rural turnout and underwhelming Democrat turnout. Whilst he isn't calling it for the GOP yet, he is adamant that their performance is markedly better this time and that the Democrats will need a big show and/or swing among Independents on election day, or today/tomorrow.

The betting in Nevada has swung sharply to Trump since these numbers emerged. From being the outsider, he is now favourite at 1.645/8.

Nevada does not necessarily reflect America but there is some understandable logic behind these findings. Compared to the 2020 result, there has been a 1-2% swing to Trump in national polls. One would expect the challenger, outside the White House, to be able to juice turnout more effectively than the incumbent.

Replicate this trend across the swing states and Trump will surely win. More than any other polling signal, the Ralston verdict is a warning against backing Harris.

However, it would be dangerous to assume Nevada trends apply elsewhere. There was a 1.2% swing away from Trump nationally in 2024, but no swing at all in Nevada. Perhaps it is slowly becoming more red. Whereas there is some evidence to suggest the all-important Blue Wall states have become more blue in recent years.

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Gender gap looks positive for Harris

Plus there is one key difference with the Nevada stats - the lack of a gender gap. Whereas men and women are roughly level there (not all counties report gender), women are opening up huge leads in the other key states. Politico report these numbers are buoying Democrats and that would equally fit a popular, plausible election narrative, regarding the post-Dobbs environment. That women have never been better motivated to vote and Harris is faring better than Biden among them.

Women lead 56-43 in Pennsylvania; 51-43 in Wisconsin and 55-45 in Michigan. Around 25-40% of the 2020 electorate has voted in these states - so the composition is less complete than Nevada.

In North Carolina, around two-thirds of the 2020 electorate have voted and women lead 55/44. Likewise Georgia is already past two-thirds of the 2020 total with women leading 56/44.

In Arizona, women only lead 48/43. Like Nevada, the Democrat vote here is heavily reliant on Latinos. Is this a sign of Harris underperformance among them, as trailed in polls? That would ruin her chance in those two states but be far less of a factor in the Blue Wall.

In all these cases, directly comparing numbers to the 2020 early vote is dangerous. There was a pandemic on which transformed voting patterns, and Republicans have definitely made more effort to organise this time.

Perhaps the best guide comes from polling those who have already voted. CNN asked that question in their last series of polls and it shows precisely the different trends discussed above, between Nevada and the Blue Wall. Whilst fewer have voted in the latter and an early lead is no surprise, I'm sure the Democrats will be happy enough to have these votes in the bank.

#New General election poll - People already voted

🔵 Michigan - Harris +27
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +22
🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +17

SSRS

-- Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

#New General election poll - People already voted

🔵 Michigan - Harris +27
🔵 Wisconsin - Harris +22
🔵 Pennsylvania - Harris +17

SSRS

-- Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 31, 2024

To reiterate, early vote data is not something to place too much emphasis on, due to the uncertainties, but it does offer a signal. What I am happy to conclude is that these numbers don't support Trump being such a clear favourite. Remember, Harris only needs to win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The trend will likely be similar across the three states. These three states are offering positive signs for her.

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