US Election Latest: Economic outlook boosts Harris and Trump plans to challenge result

• Economic outlook rosy but Trump is still weaponising inflation

• Polling tight but betting markets back Trump

• MAGA movement already preparing for January 2025

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It's the economy, stupid!

The phrase was first coined during Bill Clinton's 1992 presidential campaign by Jim Carville, the political strategist who helped the Democrat sweep to victory in the race to the White House. It remains somewhat of a truism.

According to Gallup, the economy ranks as the most important of 22 key issues at stake in this election, with 52% of voters saying the economy is an "extremely important" influence on their vote. A further 38% of voters rank it as "very important".

Polls have shown that Donald Trump is the candidate most trusted to handle the economy, giving him an edge with undecided voters who are not wedded to voting for either candidate.

While Trump has weaponised the rise in inflation, the economic stats look pretty rosy for Harris.

Only yesterday, the Federal Reserve published data showing that inflation continues to decrease. Not only that, but the US economy is outperforming all other major developed economies - and has grown 2.7% in the past year.

Unfortunately for Harris, the positive outlook is not matched by voter enthusiasm.

Polls are tight and betting markets are tightening

The polling continues to be tighter than ever in the final few days before the US Election.

Nationally, a few recent polls have handed Trump the advantage. AtlasIntel has Trump at 2% more than Harris, and J.L. Partners and the Daily Mail have him at 3% higher.

Key swing states continue to be in play for both candidates.

A new CNN poll conducted by SSRS suggests that Trump and Harris are neck and neck in North Carolina and Georgia. Trump leads in Georgia but Harris leads in North Carolina - yet both results are well within the margin of error.

Since early October, Trump has held a sizable lead over Harris on the Betfair Exchange. He is currently 5/81.62 to win the election - giving him a 61% chance of success.

Yet though Harris is 8/52.60, the key swing states in this election have begun to turn to her favour.

Last week, Trump was the favourite in every single one of the seven swing states that are likely to decide this election.

But today, a more complicated picture emerges.

The Democrats are ahead in Michigan at 8/111.73, giving a 57% chance of winning. The Dems have also drawn level with Trump's Republicans in Wisconsin - with the two parties neck and neck in the fight to win the state.

MAGA prepares for January

Many political analysts are expecting that Donald Trump will call the election result in his favour overnight on the 5th or 6th of November.

This mirrors his approach in the 2020 election - at 02:30am the day after the election, Trump delivered a speech where he claimed he had won the election. Yet it took until November 7th - 3 days later - for the election to be definitively called for Biden.

Expect the same playbook to be deployed next week.

Unless the election result is a landslide in either direction, it's likely that it will be subject to challenges in court, protests, and even campaigns to persuade legislators to block the outcome.

Trump's supporters have already been preparing to contest the 2024 election results. The longer the election result drags on for, the more likely another violent attack such as January 6th.

The government is already preparing extra security around Washington, D.C. around the election. It may be needed if the result is unclear next Tuesday night.

Now read US Election Bet of the Day: Expect Trump's vote share to prove predictable once again