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The so-called "Tarheel State" is a critical swing state in this year's election
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The state has been decided by less than a 4% margin since 2008
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Democrats are a distant 2/13.00 to carry the state - which was won by Trump in 2020 by just 1.34%
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Swing States key to outcome of US Election
Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen moe than £104 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Donald Trump is leading the way at 5/81.62 to win the election. Harris trails behind at 8/52.60.
Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for presidents from both parties.
States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
So to kick off the final sprint to election day, here's our spotlight on another one of these states - North Carolina.
Consistently red - except when it was consistently blue
In recent history, North Carolina has been consistently Red for the Republicans.
Barack Obama in 2008 carried the state for the Democrats - by a 0.32% margin. This was the first time the Democrats had won the state since Jimmy Carter's election in 1976. Since 2008, the state has been won by the Republicans but by less than 4% each time.
Yet before Nixon burst onto the scene in the 1968 election, the state had been consistently blue. Barring the 1928 election, North Carolina voted Democrat in every election from 1876 to 1964.
Incredibly, the state has participated in every US Presidential election except the election of 1864, during the American Civil War. It was unable to vote in the first US Presidential election in 1788-79, as it had not yet ratified the US Constitution.
Trump did well in North Carolina in 2016, with a margin of 3.66% over Hillary Clinton, and gaining on Mitt Romney's margin over Barack Obama in 2012.
In 2020, Trump still carried the state over Biden, though it was Trump's narrowest victory in any state - winning by a 1.34% margin.
Down but certainly not out
Hurricane Helene, the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to strike the United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, had a devastating impact in North Carolina only one month ago.
At least 115 were confirmed dead in the state, out of an estimated 227.
Yet early predictions that this would depress turnout in the state have been completely disproven, if not demolished.
As of Friday, North Carolina has seen record early voter turnout, with over two million ballots cast so far. The first seven days of early voting saw an increase of more than six percent since the last election in 2020.
North Carolina has the second-largest rural population in the United States - after Texas. Yet while most US rural areas have aligned more towards the Republican Party in recent elections, North Carolina's rural areas are less Republican than its suburban counties.
In addition, of the seven swing states in this election, North Carolina has the second-highest proportion of Black or African American voters - constituting 20% of its population. Registered Black voters in the state have a lower turnout rate than the statewide average.
The state has been said by some to be a surprise candidate as a swing state in this election - while Trump has carried the state in his last two elections, this year could be the outlier.
Polling vs odds
According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator for North Carolina, Trump is currently ahead 1.3%. While he has been ahead in the majority of recent polls, most results have been within the margin of error.
On average, Trump sits at 48.4% of the vote, while Harris is close behind at 47.1%.
The punters have decisively plumped for Trump, given his recent history in the state.
On the Betfair Exchange, Trump and the Republicans are backed to carry the state with 40/851.47 odds, giving them a 67% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Harris is trailing at odds of 2/13.00, giving the Dems a 33% chance of winning.
This makes North Carolina the second most-likely swing state to be carried by Trump on Betfair, after Arizona.
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