Adam Boulton on the Election: Could one small state hold the keys to the White House?
The swing states are going to prove pivotal in a race as tight as this, says legendary British journalist Adam Boulton, but could a tiny Republican-leaning state actually be the one that gives power to Trump or Harris?
-
Adam Boulton assesses the state of play in the vital swing states in his latest Betfair column
-
But might one small other state play a key role?
-
Read more US Election betting news in our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here
-
View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts
-
Place £5 on a US Election market and receive a £5 free bet
Just days to go until polls close on US Election Day on 5th November 2024.
British punters are heavily backing the re-election of President Donald J Trump.
In the United States, however, both camps are expressing confidence and opinion polls continue to show that the Republican and Democratic nominees are neck and neck. (The New York Times final Sienna Poll this week is typical at 48%/48%.)
Trump campaign insiders are telling reporters "We've never had data that looks this good". Some are even predicting Trump will win the majority of the popular vote. Something he failed to achieve in either of his two previous runs in 2016, when he won, and 2020, when he didn't.
But Jen O'Malley Dillon, the chair of the Harris-Walz campaign takes the opposite view insisting - "I promise you we are going to win this race." Her experience is as the battleground state director for Barack Obama, who won the presidency in 2008 and 2016.
Listen to Betfair's final politics podcast of the 2024 election
Tight election underlines swing state importance
If the election really is this close, then victory will depend on who gets the majority in the Electoral College (read the Betfair explainer here). The next president needs at least 270 of the 538 votes at stake. The results in at least 40 of the 50 United States are considered a foregone conclusion, the outcome will be determined in the seven or so states which have a track record of swinging either way: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
The Center for Politics - better known as Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball - has precisely this view of where the race for the White House stands. It reckons that Kamala Harris already has 226 Electoral College Votes in the bag, and Donald Trump 219. So it will all hang which way the total of 93 "Toss-Up" votes in those rust belt and sun belt states.
Below I detail how many visits each candidate has made to each state in the so-called General Election campaign period from late August. The candidates are spending almost all their time campaigning in those swing states with rallies, TV interviews, endorsements from celebrity backers with local appeal and a bombardement of TV commercials.
This will be the most expensive campaign ever. Between them the two campaings are set to spend around $4 billion.
Trump won all seven swing states when he was victorious in 2016. When Biden won in 2020 he carried six out of seven. These main battlegrounds really do matter:
Adam's view of the seven swing states...plus one more that could be crucial
PENNSYLVANIA, 19 votes
The Keystone State, birthplace of the Constitution, is the swing state with the most electoral college. In 2020 the Trump campaign failed with numerous legal challenges that the election fraud. This week Trump alleged "voter fraud" is taking place again in early voting in this year in Pennsylvania.
Trump visits 11 (including two to Butler where he was struck in the ear by an assassin's bullet).
Harris visits 13
MICHIGAN, 15 votes
The Great Lakes State is the home of America's motor vehicle industry and Detroit, a.k.a Motown. It contains significant African American, Palestinian and Puerto Rican Communities. Barack Obama starred at a rally in Detroit, urging Black voters to turn our and vote for Harris. Some Arab American Democrats will not vote for vice president Harris because of the Biden Administration's policies on the Israel-Gaza-Lebanon conflict.
Trump visits 5
Harris visits 7
WISCONSIN, 11 votes
The Badger State hosted Trump's 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Trump won this rust belt state by just 0.77% in 2016. Hillary Clinton was blamed for not paying Wisconsin much attention. Harris and her mid-western running mate Tim Walz have not made that mistake in the rustbelt states this time.
Trump visits 6
Harris visits 6
ARIZONA, 11 votes
The Grand Canyon State is the home state of the late John McCain, defeated Republican candidate in 2008 and a bête noir of Trump. This year the candidates are tied in closing opinion polls, some slightly favouring Trump, others Harris. The Democrats have caught up a lot since Harris entered the race. In a reflection of the nationwide battle a majority of women, Latinos and African Americans back Harris. Arizona has introduced some of the strictest voter registration rules since the last election as Republicans try to supress some voters and prepare to fight in court if things do not go Trump's way.
Trump visits 3
Harris visits 3
GEORGIA, 16 votes
Perhaps the most hotly contested swing state in recent elections. In 2016 Trump beat Biden in the Peach State by 51% to 45.9%. But in 2020 he lost narrowly to Joe Biden by 49.5% to 49.3%. In January 2021 Trump made his notorious phone call to Georgia's Secretary of State demanding "find 11,780 votes" for which he is now being prosecuted.
Trump visits 5
Harris visits 5
NEVADA, 6 votes
The Silver State is the home of Las Vegas, America's gambling capital and Miriam Adelson, Israeli-American and a major billionaire donor to Trump and the Republican party. Trump was a nose ahead 48% to 47% in the last CNN/SRSS poll. Harris is ahead among urbanites in Vegas and Reno but Republicans are stronger in less populated parts.
Trump visits 4
Harris visits 3
NORTH CAROLINA, 16 votes
The Tarheel State is the only swing state that did not flip to Biden in 2020. Obama won it in 2008 but lost in 2012. It has come more into play for the Democrats since Harris replaced Biden. The Republicans have been hit by scandal after it was revealed that their candidate for Governor Mark Robinson described himself as a "black Nazi" and expressed support for slavery. Harris will need a very good night to carry North Carolina.
Trump visits 7
Harris visits 4
NEBRASKA, 4 votes
Could be decisive if the electoral college is really split down the middle as some experts predict. There could be a single electoral vote in. It is one of the two states which can split its electoral college votes between the state-wide winner and congressional districts. The Cornhusker State is almost bound to go red with three of its votes going to Trump. But all the indications are that Harris is ahead in the 2nd District around Omaha. That "blue dot" could prove vital to her election which could be as tight as 270 to 268 Electoral college votes.
All of which means your guess - and your bet - is as good as anyone's about who is going to be the next President of the United States.
Stay on top of all the election betting news in our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here
GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK
New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.
Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
