US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Pennsylvania with Trump at 4/5 to carry the state

• The so-called "Keystone State" - or "The Battleground State" - could indeed hold the key in this year's election

• Along with Wisconsin and Michigan, Pennsylvania is one of three states with the longest bellwether streak - the last time they voted against the winning candidate was 2004

• Biden won the state with a margin of 1.17% in 2020 - Trump won with 0.72% in 2016

• Republicans are 4/51.80 to carry the state on Betfair, giving a 55% likelihood of winning

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

Swing States key to outcome of US Election

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen more than £105 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Donald Trump is leading the way at 5/81.62 to win the election. Harris trails behind at 8/52.60.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So in our penultimate profile of these key swing states in this election, introducing - Pennsylvania.

A critical state since 1789

Pennsylvania has voted for the winning Presidential candidate since 2004 - tied for the strongest bellwether state of today with both Wisconsin and Michigan.

Yet the margins have been exceedingly tight.

In the 2020 election, Joe Biden carried the state for the Democrats with a margin of just 1.17% over Donald Trump. In 2016, Trump carried the state with an even narrower 0.72%.

Yet with the exception of Donald Trump's 2016 victory, the last time Pennsylvania voted Republican Red in a Presidential election was for George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Pennsylvania has voted in each Presidential election since the office was created, with the first election in 1789. Pennsylvania was one of the states with the highest number of electors and electoral votes of the states eligible to participate in that election.

The state's "hit-rate" is extraordinary - voting for the overall winner in 48 or 59 Presidential elections - a 81.4% success rate.

Perhaps the most pivotal of swing states

Most political analysts would agree - while all seven swing states are uniquely "in-play", and each have their own forces that could swing one way or another - Pennsylvania is likely the most pivotal state up for grabs this time round.

That matches 2020, where it was hailed as the key state to win.

Some may remember Trump's press conference outside the Four Seasons Total Landscaping business on November 7th 2020, which was the moment when the majority of news outlets called Pennsylvania for Biden. This finally confirmed Biden as president-elect, four days after Election Day.

It's unlikely either candidate will win without winning Pennsylvania, according to Nate Silver the statistician running FiveThirtyEight, a respected polling firm.

What are the key considerations for this swingiest of swing states?

It was reported on Thursday that the Democrats' lead in voter registrations has been cut dramatically since 2020. In 2021, four months after the 2020 election, there were 630,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania. By this month, this was cut to only a 300,000 advantage for the Democrats.

Given the state was decided for Biden by only 82,000 votes, that will be worrying Democrats.

Pennsylvania is characterised and known for its two urban hubs, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Yet suburban areas in the state are more populous than these two cities, and even more populous than entire states.

In 2020, these suburban areas boosted Biden's results where he outpaced Clinton's previous performance, even though he fell short in the Philly and Pitsburgh urban centers.

Finally, the Hispanic population in Pennsylvania has almost tripled since 2000. The eligible voter population in the state has gone from 208,000 to 579,000.

While Democrats have traditionally held an advantage with Latino voters, this advantage has shrunk in recent elections. This could prove important in the race for Pennsylvania as well as plenty of other key swing states.

Polling vs odds

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator for Pennsylvania, Trump is a sliver ahead.

Trump currently has a 0.3% advantage over Harris in an average of recent polls. As a reminder, the margin of victory in 2020 was 1.17%, and in 2016 it was 0.72%.

On average, Trump sits at 48% of the vote.

On the Betfair Exchange, Trump and the Republicans are backed to carry the state with 4/51.80 odds, giving them a 55% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Harris is trailing at odds of 6/52.20, giving the Dems a 46% chance of winning.

But punters are far from sold. Of the seven swing states - six of which are currently leaning Trump - it is the 3rd most likely to support Harris in this election.

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