Adam Boulton: Outside the odds there are plenty of positives for Kamala

• Odds point to Trump win but polls and more are telling a good story for Harris

• Adam Boulton analyses Harris' chance in his latest Betfair column

• Read more in our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

Polls and odds split on election winner

Kamala Harris has a lot to celebrate on her 60th birthday this Sunday 20^th October. She is already the most successful black woman in US Electoral history.

First elected San Francisco District Attorney in 2002, She went on to win the vote to be California's Attorney General in 2011, US Senator in 2016 and US Vice President in 2020.

Now she is narrowly ahead in a neck and neck race for the White House with Donald J Trump. That is according to the opinion polls which currently put her ahead with around 49.3% to Donald Trump's 46.5%.

Punters see things differently and are favouring the re-election of the former president by a few percentage points. The betting markets put the former president ahead in the swing states. Again, and unusually in an election year, opinion poll averages differ. In polls Harris is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada with Trump narrowly in the lead in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina.

The winner will need victory in almost all the swing states, which is why this election is rightly considered too close to call.

Harris performing well

For sure Kamala Harris is doing much better than the ageing Joe Biden would have done. Her proven electoral "chops" are one reason why she is a contender with a real chances of becoming America's first woman president.

Whether you like her or not, her confident campaigning gives the lie to Trump's repeated attacks that she is "retarded", "a dummy", "low IQ", "grossly incompetent" and "mentally impaired".

Listen to Adam and guests in Betfair's latest US Election podcast...

Trump's erratic behaviour offers Harris election gift

But then Trump is hardly behaving like a candidate who is confident of victory. Americans are witnessing increasingly bizarre behaviour by the 78 year-old. This week in the swing state of Pennsylvania the Republican nominee wrapped up speaking at a rally after just half an hour and then, The Washington Post reported, "Trump sways and bops to music for 39 minutes in bizarre town hall episode".

His outbursts threatening his political opponents have become so extreme that Kamala Harris has begun to play back clips of Trump to her own rallies.

While some commentators are still waiting for an October Surprise which could turn the election decisively - others wonder if it has not already arrived with the evident deterioration of Trump's campaigning abilities. In past election cycles he has been a good "closer". In 2024 Kamala Harris is not the only one saying he is not in a fit state to be president.

She voluntarily released a two-page Doctor's letter recently declaring she was in "excellent health" with "the physical and mental resiliency required to successfully execute the duties of the presidency". Trump is refusing to publish any independent health assessment while claiming on Truth Social "MY REPORT IS PERFECT - NO PROBLEMS".

Harris on media offensive

Everybody knows Trump. Harris is now going all out to introduce herself to her fellow Americans - especially independent and undecided voters, who tend to lean Republican.

In the final weeks of this campaign she is doing far more interviews across a diverse range of outlets than her opponent. She went on America's flagship current affairs show 60 Minutes while Trump broke with election year precedent and ducked his invitation. He refused Harris's challenge to take part in another TV debate and cancelled other mainstream media engagements.

This week Kamala Harris took the fight onto Trump's own turf, the Fox News Channel.

Trump immediately claimed Fox had "totally lost its way" and was "soft and weak" for inviting her.

In a fiery encounter, Fox's interviewer Bret Baier tried to talk over Harris as he belaboured her with Trump campaign talking points, mainly about immigration and the record of the Biden administration. She saw him coming and was ready with her answers. She insisted her administration would not be the same as Biden's and successfully laid out her platform: denouncing Trump, financial help for "ordinary Americans" not the rich, and championing women's rights.

I am campaigning for every vote because I intend to be a president for all Americans--no matter their political party, where they live, or where they get their news.

That's why I went on Fox News last night.

-- Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) October 17, 2024

Democrat appeals across the divide

The details of polls should not be taken too literally. Trends confirm that Harris is appealing strongly to women voters. She is 57% to 42% ahead among women, and practically even with Trump among white women, a new record. Trump leads with men by a smaller margin, 53% to 47%.

Recent public threats by Trump to set the national guard, the military, and the courts on his political opponents are considered "blatantly fascist" by some Republicans. The list of well-known Republicans backing Harris because they believe Trump is anti-democratic is growing by the day. There were 100 of them at a Harris Rally in Pennsylvania. They now include Karl Rove, George W Bush's "Turd Blossom", Geraldo Riveira, the TV anchor man, and former vice president Dick Cheney.

Popular vote should go to Harris but state votes crucial

Polls - and the Betfair odds - give Harris give a 70% plus chance of getting more votes across the nation than Harris.

As Hillary Clinton learnt in 2016, winning the popular vote is not the same as wining the Electoral College state by state. Early voting returns in some states, including Pennsylvania, are good for the Democrats, but Democratic voters tend to vote early. Turnout is high so far, that was a good sign for Biden in 2020.

Is there any reason why Trump should get more votes than he got in 2020 when he lost the election? That is the big question now.

In the four years since then he has denied his defeat and supported the Jan 6 attempted coup, stolen classified documents, had intimate contact with Putin, seen the US Supreme Court he packed overturn abortion rights and become a four times indicted and convicted felon

Kamala Harris is promising to turn the page on all that.

Stay on top of all the election betting news in our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

This column was first published on October 18