Adam Boulton on the US Election: Will either candidate benefit from an October surprise?

• Both candidates can't be separated

• An October surprise could potentially decide the outcome

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Listen to Politics...Only Bettor US election special with Adam Boulton

The state of Battle

"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK? It's, like, incredible."

Donald Trump's boast at the start of his successful bid for the presidency in 2016 still stands in spirit eight years later. However badly he behaves, however many federal, state and civil court cases he falls foul of, he remains a contender for a return to the White House in next month' election, four years after he was booted out by the American voters in an election which he still claims, falsely and against all legal examination, that he won.

With a month to go, Trump, the Republican nominee, is locked in a neck-and-neck race with Kamala Harris, the democratic candidate.

Trump has been shot at rather than shooting, but surviving two assassination attempts has had little impact on his standing in the polls. An indication perhaps of how bitterly polarized the US remains.

Trump was the runaway favourite to get his revenge when the rapidly ageing incumbent President Joe Biden was his opponent. But Biden's frailties were exposed in a TV Debate in July. Biden stood down and the Democrats switched to Vice President Harris as their nominee.

Since then Harris has made up a lot of ground. The lead in the presidential race in both opinion polls and the betting markets is now switching around between the two front runners. Currently most opinion polls very narrowly favour Harris while up until this weekend punters were favouring Trump by an equally narrow margin, though Harris has again edged to the top of the market in the last 48 hours.

🎢 Our Harris v Trump market has already had plenty of twists and turns

🇺🇸 Harris is back as the favourite but by the smallest of margins... pic.twitter.com/7R45OLiqmL

-- Betfair Exchange (@BetfairExchange) October 4, 2024

One explanation for this may be that the pollsters got it wrong in the last two presential elections and underestimated Trump's level of support. "Shy Trump voters", who the surveying companies failed to reach are said to explain this phenomenon. The polling companies claim they have corrected their samples for this election.

Trump is certainly in with a shout of victory. Interestingly British officials appear to be advising the prime minister to expect a Trump victory. On his recent trip to the US Sir Keir Starmer spent two hours dining with the Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump. He did not meet the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, even though Labour traditionally favours the Democratic party.

Who will receive an October surprise?

With exactly a month to go until polling day both sides are on the look-out for an "October surprise" which could break the deadlock and put Trump or Harris decisively ahead.

Half a dozen states have already started early and mail in voting and some experts believe that October surprises which really shift the outcome seldom happen. On 28 October 2016 the announcement by FBI director James Comey that he was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails wiped out any advantage she might have gained from the tape of Trump's coarse "grab 'em by the pussy" comments on 7 October.

In October 1980 the dramatic failure of Jimmy Carter's intense efforts to free American hostages held in Iran pretty much sealed victory for Ronald Reagan. Foreign affairs seldom move the dial in US elections but this year there are some devastating hot wars underway. Both campaigns will be anxiously calculating how they should react to major developments in the Middle East or Ukraine.

Harris is tied to her boss President Joe Biden. She could be damaged if Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Natanyahu continues to deny the US Administration's appeals for moderation and orders the bombing Iran's nuclear installations.

On the other hand there have been two developments this month which could boost Kamala Harris. Trump has been consistently rated higher on handling the economy but October's economic news is very good. Inflation is down dramatically to 2.5%. 254,000 new jobs created nearly twice what economists were expecting. And pressure from the White House to negotiate has stifled a potentially crippling docks strike by the Longshoremen's trade union.

Trump's legal troubles have also worsened considerably - he may not escape full prosecution for undermining the 2020 election and the attack on the Capitol as seem likely after the Trump-friendly US Supreme Court ruled that presidents have immunity. A powerful brief by Justice Department Special Counsel Jack Smith, published earlier this month argues that the Federal case against Trump is still sound. It contains more forensic evidence than ever of Trump's many subversive actions leading up to 6 January 2020 and asserts he was acting in a personal rather than presidential capacity.

In an otherwise low key Vice Presidential TV debate on 2 nd October there was one telling moment which has been repeated on mainstream and social media ever since damaging the Republican campaign. When challenged by Tim Walz, Kamala Harris' running mate, Trump's VP nominee JD Vance, refused to answer who had won the 2020 Election.

In all though both campaigns are still looking for that October Surprise - gaffe, blunder, revelation, or failure - which could knock out their opponent. That's what makes it so hard this year to predict who is going to be elected the next president of the United States on 5 November.

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