US Politics

US Election: Trump favourite in all seven swings states for first time

  • Max Liu
  • 4:00 min read
Kamala Harris supporters in Pennsylvania
Trump is the favourite to win Pennsylvania and the other six swing states on the Betfair Exchange

The former-president's momentum in the Betfair Exchange US election markets continued as he became favourite to win in all seven swing states...

  • Trump favourite to win all seven swings states

  • He's 5/81.62 to win second term as president on 5 November

  • Follow our 2024 US Election live blog here

  • Get the latest data including current prices and volume of bets in our daily update

  • View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts


As America hurtles to election day in just two weeks, the Betfair Exchange odds indicates that a Donald Trump victory is likely after he became the favourite to win all seven swing states.

Trump is 8/5 (a 61.5% chance) to win the election while his opponent Kamala Harris is (13/8) (37.9%). Momentum in the market has favoured Trump for nearly two weeks and indicates that, in a race which for months looked too close to call, he is now in the box seat.

While there are many states, such as Texas and California, where one candidate has a clear advantage, the swing states are those which polling suggests could vote for either Trump or Kamala Harris on 5 November and remain winnable for either. They are the battlegrounds and both will keep fighting for them until election day. Click here for a basic explainer of a US Election swing state.

Trump has long been the favourite in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. That's no shock, although Joe Biden did win Arizona and Georgia four years ago and there was talk early in the campaign that the Democrats had a strategy that could flip NC.

Trump favourite to take back swing states

More surprising is seeing Trump claw himself into pole position in Pennsylvania, which many experts consider to be the most important swing state and which has more electoral college seats than any other of the seven, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Michigan was the final state to swing into the Trump camp on the Betfair Exchange yesterday as bettors backed the former-president to win there.

Trump is now 10/111.91 (52.4%) to win the Great Lakes state which, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, was considered crucial to Harris's path to the White House.

All four states voted for Biden in 2020, with all except Nevada having gone to Trump in 2016, and they will likely back the winner in 2024.

Is this a watershed moment in the race for the White House 2024?

Most polls still put the candidates neck and neck but the moves in the last fortnight are a clear sign that bettors are willing to gamble on a second Trump presidency.

Our politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty has taken an in-depth look at the factors that could decide the outcome of the election in two weeks.

The polls may be wrong, the markets my be right and vice versa, but Paul emphasises that it would take very little to tip the swing states in favour of Trump or Harris.

There are two weeks to go and, whatever happens, the 2024 US election is likely to go down as one of the most tense ever.

Read Betting.Betfair for the latest betting news and find out what the odds tell us about who will America's next president.


Now read politics betting expert Paul Krishnamurty US Election: Five ways in which the polls could be wrong


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