US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Wisconsin as Dems are 8/11 to win the state

• The so-called "Dairyland" may prove critical

• The state has been decided by less than 1% in four of the last six elections

• The Democrats are 8/111.73 to carry the state

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

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Swing States key to outcome of US Election

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen over £141 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Donald Trump is leading the way at 4/51.80 to win the election. Harris trails behind at 6/52.20.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So in our final profile of these key swing states in this election, introducing - Wisconsin...

A former shoo-in for the Dems

Wisconsin has voted for the winning Presidential candidate since 2004 - tied for the strongest bellwether state of today with both Pennsylvania and Michigan.

Generally, Wisconsin in recent elections has voted Democrat. The exception was 2016, where Wisconsin voted for Donald Trump over Hilary Clinton by less than 1% of the vote. Biden won the state back in 2020 with less than 1% of the vote, too.

Yet before then the Dems were riding high. Barack Obama's first Presidential election saw him win over John McCain by over 13%.

The state voted Democrat in both elections where George W. Bush won - in 2000 and 2004 - but by a whisker. Yet prior to that, Clinton won his two elections by 5% against Bush Sr. in 1992, and over 10% in 1996 against Bob Dole.

Wisconsin has been a huge win for many Democrats - but it seems to be getting tighter in recent years.

What will shift the dial in Wisconsin?

Of all the seven swing states, WIsconsin is the whitest. Rural voters in Wisconsin have been moving more towards the Democrats - while they still back the Republicans in total. The opposite has been true of urban voters, who have moved towards the Republicans while still overwhelmingly backing Democrats.

Trump returned to Milwaukee, WIsconsin last Friday - as did Harris. Their planes were sat on the tarmac a few hundred metres away from each other at Milwaukee airport.

Trump was coming back to the scene of his triumphant Republican Convention, which was held in Milwaukee only two days after the former President survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania.

Harris has made more trips to Wisconsin than her rival, totting up 11 events or rallies since September 1st according to the New York Times.

Wisconsin polling shows that voters in the state are following the same trends as the rest of the country. White voters are becoming more Democratic - yet voters of colour are becoming more Republican.

Wisconsin's "WOW" counties - Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington - are suburban countries that may be key to the result. These have been Republican heartlands in the past, but have recently been less supportive of the party. Trump won suburban voters in Wisconsin by 12 points in 2020, but in 2024 polling, Harris is ahead.

Polling vs odds

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator for Wisconsin, Harris is ahead by a razor-thin margin of 0.6%.

Harris is currently sitting at 48.1% in an average of current polls, while Trump is at 47.4%. Given the last two elections have been decided with less than 1% of the vote, these margins will be a challenge for both candidates.

On the Betfair Exchange, Harris and the Democrats are ahead. They are at 8/111.73 odds to carry the state, with £163,000+ already wagered on the state, making it one of the 10 most popular states on the Betfair Exchange. This gives the Democrats a 58% chance of winning the state for Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, Trump and the Republicans are at odds of 11/82.38. This gives them a distant 42% chance of carrying the state.

Wisconsin is only one of three states currently pulling for the Democrats, but less than two weeks ago all seven swing states had Trump as the odds-on favourite.

Michigan is now 67% likelihood to go for Harris, and Wisconsin is sitting at 58%. Pennsylvania is tight, but the Betfair Exchange currently has the state at 51% chance to go Democrat.

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