US Politics

US Election on the Betfair Exchange: All the money traded, odds hit and more from polling day

Donald Trump
The White House looks to have gone orange

Get the Betfair Exchange headlines from polling day with Donald Trump called the winner by media outlets and a near certainty to return to the White House...


When the Democrats settled on Kamala Harris as their candidate it looked like we were in for a real battle for the 2024 US Election.

In the the early stages of her campaign and especially following her clear debate victory over Trump, Harris usurped the former president at the top of the betting and the pair traded favouritism several times.

It seemed we were in for an exciting race.

But for much of the last few weeks Trump assumed a grip on the favourite spot and simply didn't let go.

indeed, he's been the clear favourite on the Betfair Exchange throughout the final month of campaigning.

And as polling day comes to a close it seems a certainty that Betfair customers have called another election correct.

While there have been upsets in the last two US elections - Trump as big as 12/113.00 overnight when he overcame the odds to win in 2016, Joe Biden drifting out to 4/15.00 before turning things around in 2020 - the odds are different this time around. As Betfair's Sam Rosbottom said: "If Harris wins from this position then it will be the biggest ever comeback in US Election history on the Betfair Exchange.".

Twenty-two of the last 24 elections have been called correctly by the Betfair Exchange and it looks like we can add this one to the list.

At 6am just shy of a quarter of a billion traded



At the stroke of midnight just over £215,000,000 had been traded in the Election Winner market.

By 01:00am that was £222,800,000, at 02:00am it was £228,400,000 and at 03:00am the total stood at £233,300,000.

We'd hit £242,100,000 at 04:00am and £247,000,000 at 05:00am.

With Trump looking a certain winner, the betting turnover slowed and at 06:00am the Exchange Election Winner market had traded £249,000,000.

And that march of money was matched by one-way betting traffic. On a stunning night Trump's odds tumbled from...

5/71.71 at midnight

4/91.44 at 01:00am

4/111.36 at 02:00am

2/111.18 at 03:00am

1/201.05 at 04:00am

1/1001.01 at 05:00am

1/501.02 at 06:00am

And before 07:00am you could no longer back Trump to win.

It was relentless with the odds only ever moving in favour of Trump. A crushing victory that almost certainly includes the popular vote.

At the time of writing some swing states are yet to call but the story of the 2024 election looks to have been written already. And Donald Trump is again its star.


Now read Betfair's US Election Live Blog for the latest updates


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