US Election: Donald Trump clear favourite as swing states flip for ex-president

• Trump is clear favourite to win US election at 4/61.67

• £10m matched on Harris v Trump in past week

• Betfair heading to the swing states next week

• Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

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It's been a monumental week on the Betfair Exchange US Presidential Election markets, more than £10m has been matched on Donald Trump v Kamala Harris in the past seven days, and it's clear who punters fancy to win November's vote.

The election winner market had been incredibly tight, with the market lead flipping eight times since August, but it's Trump who is now completely dominating the betting.

Of the £10.1m that has been staked since last week, £6.6m of that has been for the former-president, and his odds have dipped to a low of 1.654/6 (a 60.6% chance) having been as big as 2.111/10 (47.6%) just over two weeks ago.

It's difficult to pinpoint exactly what is behind this move. In previous elections we have seen the market side with one candidate with just a few weeks left in the campaign and, while there was some uncertainty around whether that would be the case this time, it looks as though the market momentum is now fully behind Trump.

Harris has been continuing to get her message out there across high profile media opportunities this week, including a combative interview on Fox News in which she looked to distance herself from Joe Biden, claiming her presidency will be a clean break from the current administration.

The vice-president's odds drifted out to a high of 2.588/5 (38.8%) this week, the biggest price she's been since the end of July before she had officially accepted the nomination.

Trump favourite in Pennsylvania

We've also seen significant movement in the key swing state markets, with Pennsylvania flipping in Trump's favour, and the odds tightening in Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.

Remember, Pennsylvania is absolutely key, it has the most electoral college votes out of all the other swing states with 19, and Trump is now into 1.87 to win there, having been as big as 2.05 two weeks ago.

The betting has also shifted Trump's way in a number of the other swing states, Wisconsin now looks neck and neck, with Trump evens, having been as big as 2.47147/100 (40.5%) two weeks ago. There's a similar story in the Michigan market too, with Trump's odds shortening to 2.03103/100 (50%) from 2.78 a fortnight ago.

High turnout could be key for Democrats

"Get off your couch and vote" was the message from Barack Obama, who was out on the campaign trail last week, and it's a message we can expect to hear much more from the Democrats as we head into the final weeks of campaigning.

The 2020 election saw the most votes ever cast in a US presidential election, which undoubtedly helped Biden to defeat Trump. In fact, the democrats have won each of the top three presidential elections with the highest voter turnout.

2020: Joe Biden win, 66.8% turnout

2008: Barack Obama win, 63.8% turnout

1960: John F. Kennedy win, 63.8% turnout

But higher voter turnout doesn't automatically mean a Democrat win. When the turnout was high in 2020, total votes for Trump in the key swing states also increased:

Michigan Trump votes

-2016: 2,279,543 votes

- 2020: 2,649,852 votes

Difference: +370,309 votes

Wisconsin Trump votes

- 2016: 1,405,284 votes

- 2020: 1,610,184 votes

Difference: +204,900 votes

Pennsylvania Trump votes

- 2016: 2,970,733 votes

- 2020: 3,377,674 votes

Difference: +406,941 votes

North Carolina Trump votes

- 2016: 2,362,631 votes

- 2020: 2,758,775 votes

Difference: +396,144 votes

Georgia Trump votes

- **2016**: 2,089,104 votes

- **2020**: 2,461,837 votes

Difference: +372,733 votes

Nevada Trump votes

- 2016: 512,058 votes

- 2020: 669,890 votes

Difference: +157,832 votes

Arizona Trump votes

- 2016: 1,252,401 votes

- 2020: 1,661,686 votes

Difference: +409,285 votes

Ultimately, Biden won all of those swing states apart from North Carolina, but how many voters Harris can mobilise seems to be the focus with a couple of weeks to go.

The Democrats still need to get their message and Harris out there and at the moment it's Trump who's polling better on two of the main topics for voters: the economy and immigration. Even when he dances and sways for 40 minutes in a Q&A.

What can we expect in the final weeks? This prolonged period of Trump backing looks like the market has settled on a favourite. This has been the case for every single Betfair Exchange US Presidential election market. Going into polling day, from at least three weeks out, there's always been a firm favourite.

The only time the market has been wrong was back in 2016. Back then, punters got it wrong and Trump won. Eight years on, could they be overestimating his chances?

Betfair's Sam is heading to the swing states

From next week, I'll be sharing updates from on the ground in the US. I'll be visiting Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the blue wall that Trump turned red back in 2016.

I'm looking forward to hearing first hand what really matters to voters, what they think of the candidates and how they see this one going.

Keep an eye on all the usual Betfair channels for regular updates from the trip, bringing you closer to this unprecedented race for the White House.

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Now read Betfair US election live blog for the latest betting news

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