• Read Paul's essential guide to the in-play action on the Betfair Exchange

• Expect an early lead for Trump, follow the right people and do your homework!

• Follow our 2024 US Election live blog here

• Get the latest data including current prices and volume of bets in our daily update

• View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts

We are all set for what promises to be another night of betting folklore. Enormous, historical totals will be matched on our Election Winner market, not to mention dozens of side markets including the winner to win each state.

The last two presidential elections saw unforgettably wild swings. Trump winning despite trading at 10/111.00 soon after polls closed. Biden winning from 4/15.00 after Trump had prematurely declared victory. This year's close betting suggests we will see more of the same.

Know the basics

If this is your first attempt at trading a US election live, it is important to know the basic dynamics. Unlike the UK, the US vote is counted live, building throughout the night, as each county or district declares their result. You can watch these scores update live on CNN's 'Magic Wall', other broadcasters or via the state's website.

Results do not arrive evenly. Be careful not to over-react to early declarations in each state. Trump will definitely take an early lead, because the smaller rural counties can count their smaller totals in quick time. Whereas the most populous, pro-Democrat urban areas, eg Philadelphia, will arrive last.

Set an opening position

I recommend setting up some positions before the in-play period, with a view to trading. Look for a bet which you think will trade shorter during the night. My two positions are both from my election bet of the day series.

First, 270-299 Trump Electoral College Votes. One of two scenarios will become clear within the first couple of hours. Either Trump is on for a clear victory, or Harris is competitive. If the former, I will look to back one of the four states which he must take to reach 300 (PA, NC, GA, MI), to cover the 270-299 position. If Harris is competitive, I will cover it by backing her, because the 300 will surely be out of reach.

Likewise, my bet on Yes in Election Winner to Lose Popular Vote will become a position on either Trump to win the electoral college, or Harris to win the popular vote (in defeat), and that option in my view will trade shorter.

Follow a small list of experts

How to analyse the incoming results? First build a small list on Twitter of election experts to follow. We want psephologists not excitable pundits. Here's a few of mine.

@FrankLuntz

@Nate_Cohn

@ReDistrict

@SteveKornacki

@LarrySabato

@JohnKingCNN

@NateSilver538

@GaetenD

Follow specific counties in the key states

Every vote matters and any result is worth analysing but you will need to filter. Sam Rosbottom has laid out some specific counties to watch here. and I'll add the following from the first three key states to start declaring.

GEORGIA

2020 RESULT

WHITFIELD (TRUMP 70-29 in 2020)

RICHMOND (BIDEN 68-31)

PAULDING (TRUMP 64-35)

HENRY (BIDEN 60-39)

NORTH CAROLINA

2020 RESULT

ALAMANCE (TRUMP 54-45)

BUNCOMBE (BIDEN 60-39)

UNION (TRUMP 61-37)

MECKLENBURG (BIDEN 67-32)

PENNSYLVANIA

2020 RESULT

BUCKS (BIDEN 52-47)

BUTLER (TRUMP 65-33)

ERIE (BIDEN 49-48)

LACKAWANNA (BIDEN 54-45)

MONTGOMERY (BIDEN 62-36)

WESTMORELAND (TRUMP 63-35)

In each, compare the result to what happened in 2020 to see which way the vote has swung. Measure the turnout - is it higher or lower in the Republican or Democrat areas? Then translate that into your calculation of the state winner, and adjust your electoral college maths. This is complicated, time-consuming, but rewarding.

Finally, broadly, do everything you can to keep a cool head. Don't have too many positions. Keep your powder dry for when the standout value trade becomes available. It always does. Enjoy and good luck!

Now see the latest US predictions from Betfair predicts