US Politics

US Election Swing States: Spotlight on Nevada with Democrats 10/11 to carry the state

The Trump hotel in Las Vegas
Trump's prize property in Las Vegas

With just over two weeks to go before the 2024 US Presidential Election, Cai Wilshaw continues his profiles of the seven key swing states by putting the spotlight on Nevada...

  • The so-called "Silver State" is a critical swing state in this year's election

  • Democrats are odds-on at 10/111.91 to carry the state

  • Yet the Republicans are only at 21/202.05 and very close behind

  • Check out our 2024 US Presidential Election Live Blog here

  • View Betfair Exchange politics markets as you have never seen before at Betfair Predicts


Swing States key to outcome of US Election

Every state will count in this incredibly tight election, which has already seen over £94 million wagered on the Presidential election winner market. Donald Trump is leading the way at 7/101.70 to win the election. Harris trails behind at 7/52.40.

Swing states are battleground states that could vote either Democrat or Republican on election day. Because of the electoral college system, winning a state that was previously a toss-up is a huge win for either candidate on election night. These states have small vote margins and a history of voting for presidents from both parties.

States that voted for Joe Biden in 2020, but had previously voted Trump, are key swing states in this election - as are states that were won by less than 3%. For this election, most pollsters and political analysts judge the following seven states to be critical: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

So to kick off the final sprint to election day, here's our spotlight on another one of these states - Nevada.


A bellwether state?

In Presidential elections, Nevada has been a fairly good indicator of who will eventually take the White House.

While in 2016 Hillary Clinton did carry Nevada by just over 2.4 points, before then you have to go back to Jimmy Carter's 1976 election to find a President who didn't bring Nevada with them in the election.

Nevada voted Democrat in 2020, 2016, and both Obama elections in 2012 and 2008. It voted for George W Bush in 2004 and 2000, and for Bill Clinton in 1996 and 1992.

Hillary Clinton had a historic advantage with Latino voters - of which Nevada has many - but the Democratic party does not seem to have held onto this particular demographic of voters.


How will Nevada differ from other swing states?

In Nevada, 20% of the state's electorate are Latinos - meaning that capturing their attention is critical, even though Latinos in Nevada have incredibly low voter registration rates.

In terms of down-ballot contests, political operators judge that the Democrats need to win Nevada in order to maintain their Senate majority.

The tight race between Democrat Senator Jacky Rosen, and war veteran challenger Sam Brown, has the potential to upend the Democrats' hopes of keeping their majority.

Unsurprisingly, the Democrats have spent $57.7m on advertising in the state since June, while the Republicans have only put $37m in.

The Democrats have also deployed former President Barack Obama on the trail as Nevada kicked off its early voting. This could well come down to which voters turn out, and when, in critical countries across the state.


Polling vs odds

According to FiveThirtyEight's poll aggregator for Nevada, Harris is currently ahead by an incredibly tight 0.5%.

Harris sits at 47.6% of the vote, while Trump is close behind at 47.1%.

These are tight margins, well within the margin of error. Joe Biden only won the state in 2020 by 33,500 votes - so it's all to play for in the coming election.

While it's been a tight race throughout according to punters. Though the Democrats are in the lead at the moment at 10/111.91, on the national front Trump's fortunes have risen in recent days, and this will no doubt trickle through to the swing state odds.


Now read more Politics news, previews and tips here.


GET £50 IN FREE BETS MULTIPLES WHEN YOU SPEND £10 ON THE BETFAIR SPORTSBOOK

New customers only. Bet £10 on the Betfair Sportsbook at odds of min EVS (2.0) and receive £50 in FREE Bet Builders, Accumulators or Multiples to use on any sport. T&Cs apply.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.