2020 US Election: The next big political outsider - Avenatti for President

Donald Trump
Could Michael Avenatti be the one to take down Donald Trump?

Donald Trump's victory proved non-politicians can win the presidency and Paul Krishnamurty says its highly plausible he could be taken down in 2020 by the charismatic lawyer who is fast becoming his nemesis...

"Confident, articulate and telegenic, he has become almost omnipresent on cable news...He receives ovations on chat shows for promising to bring Trump down and his political moves show he’s pitching to lead that fight."

Three years of unprecedented volatility in politics have taught us two betting lessons. First, there has never been a better time in the history of this particular medium to take big odds about upsets. Second, Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron showed you don't need to be a politician to win elections and that outsider candidates may even be at an advantage nowadays.

Indeed in the aftermath of Trump's victory, all sorts of unimaginable presidents were backed to win the 2020 Election. Oprah Winfrey was backed down to 8/19.0 merely on the back of a Golden Globes speech. Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg was popular at 20/121.0 before the Cambridge Analytica scandal soiled his brand. Most bizarrely, Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson was matched down to 15.5.

None of them ever made any appeal but here's another with much more realistic credentials and tremendous potential, at much bigger odds. When tweeting this seven weeks ago, it was merely a speculative punt at an average of 267.0 on somebody who probably wouldn't run but whose odds would likely shorten.

In light of subsequent events and behaviour. Avenatti now rates a confident, top value trade at anything down to half his current 99/1100.0 odds. He's running.

The media has been hanging on Avenatti's every word ever since entering the public arena on behalf of his most famous client, Stormy Daniels. Confident, articulate and telegenic, he has become almost omnipresent on cable news.

Nobody has done more to expose the criminality and corrupt dealings of Michael Cohen that now threaten the president. He receives ovations on chat shows for promising to bring Trump down and his political moves show he's pitching to lead that fight.

Avenatti is already courting key primary voters

In recent months, Avenatti has visited the opening primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire, generating incomparable coverage than any other Democrat candidate would expect.

He's making set-piece speeches and spearheading causes of fundamental importance to the Democrat base - reuniting detained immigrant children with their families, championing womens' equality. Correctly gauging the mood amongst 'The Resistance', he wants to get big money out of politics.

These factors alone make him a better bet than celebrities who rarely if ever intervene in politics. He is certain to remain a central figure either directly taking the fight to Trump via those cases and other women accusers he represents, or relentless commentary on Twitter and cable news.

It is the perfect audition for 2020 and, were he to confirm his candidacy sometime next year, it would likely garner the sort of publicity Trump kickstarted in 2015.

Trump proved media saturation is the key

Indeed he could could repeat some of the 21st century tactics employed to such devastating effect in 2015. Hog the news cycle and squeeze out rivals in what will probably be a crowded field for the Democratic Nomination, at the exact moment they urgently need coverage to gain name recognition. Ensure you are the centre of attention when their chance arrives at TV debates, by which time his momentum could be unstoppable.

Lack of political baggage is an advantage

Whilst lacking baggage, he is not without political credentials either, A self-described 'Bill Clinton Democrat', Avenatti worked for the party back in the 1990s and, having vigorously promoted liberal causes recently, might be able to ward off attacks on being an outsider.

His lack of political definition and inclusive policy language will also appeal better to independents and anti-Trump Republicans than from most Democrats.

Of course there are plenty of counter-arguments. After Trump, the last thing Americans might be yearning for is another outsider with no governing experience. He lacks the organised, committed following of rivals such as Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Does he know enough about policy and how to position a campaign? His personal and professional life has yet to be scrutinised. Sure, Trump won despite breaking all the rules but everybody now knows the new rules.

No matter - those are fair risks to take about a 99/1100.0 chance. I'm confident these odds will go a lot shorter. As reiterated last week, my prediction remains that Trump won't run again in 2020. However if he is the Republican Nominee, Avenatti is right that the Democrats need a streetfighter. If as seems increasingly likely, the election turns out to be Trump on trial, I can't think of a more convincing prosecuter.

Bet on the Trump Presidency here

Will Trump survive a full-term?
What year will Trump leave office?
2020 Republican Nominee
2020 US President

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

2020 US Presidential Election: USA - Presidential Election 2020 (Next President)

Show Hide

Tuesday 3 November, 11.00am

Market rules

Back Lay
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
Mike Pence
Tim Kaine
Cory Booker
Hillary Clinton
Andrew Cuomo
Elizabeth Warren
Paul Ryan
Michelle Obama
Bernie Sanders
Marco Rubio
Michael Bloomberg
Julian Castro
Amy Klobuchar
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Nikki Haley
Newt Gingrich
Ivanka Trump
Catherine Cortez Masto
Trey Gowdy
Mark Cuban
Caroline Kennedy
Al Gore
Mark Zuckerberg
Kanye West
John Hickenlooper
Dannel Malloy
Jay Inslee
Mark Dayton
Oprah Winfrey
Ken Bone
Dwayne Johnson
Eric Garcetti
Howard Schultz
John Delaney
Sally Yates
Deval Patrick
Bob Iger
Evan McMullin
Gavin Newsom
John Kerry
Kirsten Gillibrand
Al Franken
Tim Ryan
Steve Bullock
Roy Cooper
Sherrod Brown
Martin O'Malley
Tulsi Gabbard
Doug Jones
Mitt Romney
Nina Turner
George Clooney
Condoleezza Rice
Jason Kander
Michael Avenatti
Tom Cotton
Ben Sasse
Eric Holder
John McAfee
Candace Owens
Stephanie Clifford
Maggie Hassan
Elon Musk
Beto O'Rourke
Bill de Blasio
Rahm Emanuel
Oscar De La Hoya
Sarah Palin
Andrew Gillum
Richard Ojeda
Eric Swalwell
Andrew Yang
Tom Steyer
James Mattis
Angelina Jolie
Joe Kennedy
Larry Hogan
Pete Buttigieg
Stacey Abrams
Terry McAuliffe
Wayne Messam
Bill Weld
Michael Bennet
Jon Stewart
Seth Moulton
Mike Gravel
Marianne Williamson
Joe Walsh
Nancy Pelosi
Gretchen Whitmer
Jesse Ventura
Justin Amash
Val Demings
Keisha Lance Bottoms
Mike Pompeo
Donald Trump Jn
Liz Cheney
Jim Jordan
John Bolton
Kevin McCarthy
Susan Rice
Tammy Duckworth
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Mike Huckabee
Rick Perry
Josh Hawley
Ron DeSantis
Rick Scott
Valerie Jarrett
Karen Bass
Nadja West
Gina Raimondo
chuck grassley
Kristi Noem
Jo Jorgensen
Howie Hawkins
Mark Esper
Patrick Leahy

Bet slip


Discover the latest articles

Read past articles