World Cup Permutations: What happens next for England and Scotland?

Early departure for Scotland, group win for England?

A tournament that started so well for both now has a different look. Successive defeats for Scotland and unexpected dropped points for England leaves both teams in an uncertain position. While Scotland have to rely on other teams just to make the last 32, England are already in the knockout stages and have their group fate in their hands.

Below we take you through the permutations for both ahead of the final few days of group games.

How did Scotland fare in the group stages?

Steve Clarke's side started positively with a 1-0 win over Haiti to top Group C following the first round of group fixtures. However, Haiti was always going to be the easiest opponent of the threeand a 1-0 defeat to Morocco i their second game left them wanting a point or, at worst, a slim defeat against Brazil to stand a chance of making the knockouts. Instead they were beaten 3-0 and now sit third in the group, nervously looking over their shoulders hoping for results to go their way.

What is Scotland's situation after three group games?

While there are eight spots for third-placed teams in the last 32, Scotland are seventh in the list with another eight groups left to play their final round of matches. Scotland's goal difference of -3 keeps them low in the table and they will be hoping for some heavy defeats of teams above them and simply defeats for those below!

What are the odds that Scotland will make the last 32?

it's not good. The Betfair Sportsbook makes the Tartan Army 11/43.75 to make the knockout rounds. As a percentage, that is a slightly better than 26% chance that Scotland do make it. So, as it stands, it looks like another World Cup where Scotland go home after the group stages, something they have done at every World Cup they have participated in.

What do England need to do to win Group L?

By contrast it's a happier picture for England, despite dropping points against Ghana in their second group game. The Three Lions have a little breathing room at the top of Group L and should be fine as long as they avoid disaster against bottom-placed Panama in their final fixture.

FIFA changed the group stage tiebreaker for this World Cup. Previously, goal difference would be the first metric used but that has switched to head-to-head record. With England and Ghana playing out a 0-0 draw the head-to-head will be no good should both teams finish level on points after the third and final group game.

The next metric that will be used as a tiebreaker is goal difference. England, thanks to a 4-2 defeat of Croatia coupled with Ghana only beating Panama 1-0, are ahead by one goal in the group.

Therefore, if England match Ghana's result against Croatia it will be the Three Lions who go through as group winners. If Ghana better England's result by one goal it will still be England as the next metric is goals scored.

What are the odds that England will win the group?

Put all the above together and Ghana need to win (while England drop points) or run up a big score against Croatia. That is unlikely which explains why England are as short as 1/101.10 to win the group. That gives them a 90% chance of topping Group L.

When are England's Group L Games?

See below for the dates and times of Englands matches in the group stage of the tournament:

Notable winners on Betting.Betfair so far at the 2026 World Cup...

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- Paul also tipped 13/53.60 (Canada v Bosnia) & 15/82.88 (Brazil v Morocco) draws
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao
- A 13/53.60 winner for Paul as France beat Senegal with both teams scoring
- Paul's at it again, an 11/43.75 winning Best Bet in Switzerland v Bosnia
- An 11/26.50 winner for Jimmy The Punt as Jonathan David scores 2+ goals
- Paul's 2/13.00 headline tip in Germany v Ivory Coast was a winner
- Jack Critchley delivered a 5/16.00 goalscorer treble on day 13

Now read the latest on the Golden Boot battle