World Cup Matchday 33 - Saturday 18 July
France v England Tips
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Both sides will treat this game as an inconvenience, so both France and England will have their hand off the handbrake here.
This bet has landed in all four of England's knockout games, with their only clean sheets against Panama and Ghana.
England have scored in all but one game this World Cup, and despite France drawing their first blank last time out against Spain, their rotated side should leave gaps open for England to exploit.
With injuries to William Saliba, Reece James, and Declan Rice in the semi-finals, this should be a much more open game.
France have averaged 9.57 corners per game at this World Cup, and this selection has landed in six of their seven matches.
England are averaging 5.13 corners for and 5.0 against. This should sail in with ease if trends are to continue.
Kylian Mbappe was left frustrated by a stern Spanish defence in the semi-finals.
Before that, he had scored a whopping eight goals in six World Cup appearances and, in doing so, led the competition scoring charts.
He is averaging 4.71 shots per 90 at the World Cup so far, which is comfortably the highest figure in the French squad, and started against Norway despite qualification being secured.
Bellingham has been an inspiration for England this World Cup, with six goals from central midfield.
Bellingham is averaging 2.53 shots per 90 at the World Cup so far, with 1.64 hitting the target, and has hit the target at least once in five of his last seven fixtures.
With Reece James' injury against Argentina, Nico O'Reilly could be in line for a return at fullback.
O'Reilly had an average of 1.49 fouls per 90 across all competitions for Man City in the 25/26 season, and is likely to have his hands full with whoever starts on either wing for France.
His 1.18 fouls per 90 average this World Cup is bound to be heightened with the opposition he is facing.
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World Cup Matchday 32 - Wednesday 15 July
England v Argentina Tips
Semi-finals are usually low-scoring affairs, but with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, I can see goals here.
Argentina have not kept a clean sheet in any knockout games, conceding 2+ against Egypt and Cape Verde in this run.
England have had issues at the back, keeping just one clean sheet all tournament (a group game v Ghana), and have been leaking goals in the knockouts.
Both sides have utilised corners to good effect this World Cup.
Argentina opened the scoring against Switzerland last time out from a corner, and have averaged 8.17 corners per game this World Cup. They have also managed 5+ corners in normal time in all of their knockout games.
England have seen 8+ corners in six of their World Cup games, seeing an average of 10.67 across those matches.
Bellingham has been sensational for England this World Cup, scoring twice in the quarter-final win over Norway.
Bellingham has taken 17 shots across his six starts at the World Cup (2.97 per 90), seeing 11 of those efforts find the target (1.92 per 90).
He's scored six goals from those attempts, which is the joint-most in the England squad, alongside Harry Kane.
Enzo Fernandez plays a much deeper role for Argentina than he does for his club side, Chelsea.
He's committed six fouls across five World Cup starts (1.12 per 90) and will come up against Jude Bellingham and Elliot Anderson this time out. Bellingham is the real foul drawer here. He was fouled four times v Norway and is averaging 2.10 fouls drawn per 90 this World Cup.
Kane's ability to hold up the ball is one of the key things he brings to this England side.
Kane has won eight fouls in six World Cup starts (1.28 per 90) and will be up against Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez.
Romero is averaging 1.40 fouls per 90, with Martinez averaging 0.88 fouls per 90.
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World Cup Matchday 31 - Tuesday 14 July
France v Spain Tips
In Olise's six starts at the tournament, he's assisted five times and has accumulated 2.07 xG, despite being yet to score, while averaging 3.14 shots per 90.
That's healthy data considering we're getting an odds-against price, and Spain finally conceded their first goal of the competition in their 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium.
With the clinical edge that Kylian Mbappe and Ousmane Dembele have shown, this is a value bet even against strong opposition.
This feels like a big price for a bet that has landed in two games at the competition so far, and considering the reigning Ballon D'Or winner's shot numbers.
Dembele has scored five goals, hitting the target six times (1.17 times per 90), while taking 3.12 shots per 90 on average.
France have scored two or more goals in all but one match so far, and they top the charts for xG for and shots on target per game.
Rabiot feels due in the cards markets, he's yet to receive one from nine fouls in the tournament.
Breaking up Spain's possession could become a key part of the game for France, having lost their last two matches against La Roja, including at the semi-final stage of Euro 2024.
Rabiot should find himself in duels against Dani Olmo, who has won 1.58 fouls per 90 at the tournament and typically takes up dangerous attacking positions to receive the ball.
World Cup Matchday 30 - Saturday 11 July
Norway v England Tips
Erling Haaland has lived up to his world-class billing this World Cup. He has seven goals across four starts for Norway so far, taking his tally to an insane 62 goals in 54 international matches for his country.
He scored both of Norway's goals in the historic 2-0 win over Brazil in the Round of 16, including a stellar strike from outside the box.
This Norwegian side is built around him, highlighted by his 18-goal contributions in his last eight starts.
Bellingham opened the scoring in England's historic win against Mexico in the Round of 16 with a back-post header from a Bukayo Saka cross.
England have been crossing the ball more than any side this World Cup, sending in 115 crosses in five matches (23.0 per game).
Bellingham has two headed shots on target against DR Congo in the Round of 32, too, and it's hard to imagine that Tuchel will deviate from the tactics that have worked thus far.
Daniel Moller Wolfe will be tasked with marking Bukayo Saka on Saturday night. He's as short as 1/2 to commit two fouls, so the odds of 3/1 look attractive for him to pick up a booking.
Moller Wolfe has committed seven fouls across his four starts at the World Cup (1.84 per 90) and is quite a clumsy fullback.
Saka is excellent when it comes to winning fouls, and has already drawn six fouls across just 192 minutes of action at the World Cup (2.81 per 90).
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