Argentina v Cape Verde: It's Miami twice for Messi with two 4/1 Bet Builders to back

Pick Messi in the match odds for defending champs

Click here for Argentina v Cape Verde odds
Friday 3 July, 23:00 kick-off
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Live on ITV

There's been a few fairytales in this World Cup and a few big upsets too, but Cape Verde making the knockouts might be the biggest of the lot - should they do something extraordinary against defending champions Argentina it'd be the biggest shock of all time.

The minnows are 20/121.00 underdogs here against Lionel Messi and his crew, who are huge 2/131.15 favourites to get this job done in 90 minutes and anything other than a comfortable win would be surprising to say the least.

As unlike the Dutch and Germans, Argentina have been flawless so far with three commanding wins and just one goal conceded - making it just two allowed during their 10-game winning run. And although Cape Verde held Spain to a 0-0 draw the Spanish haven't got the cutting edge Argentina have - and they don't have Messi.

They've of course shown tremendous resiliance and defensive grit, but they'll have precious little of the ball here so it's just so difficult to make a case for the Blue Sharks getting any kind of joy.

One odd quirk is that Cape Verde haven't conceded a second-half goal in their last six games, while Argentina's last 12 have seen the half-time result replicated at full-time. So if it's level at half-time could the 7/18.00 draw and extra-time be in play?

They have played more extra-time games than anyone in World Cup history (11) while seven of their last 13 knockout times have gone beyond 90 minutes. But that's a trend for clutching at straws only, as it's all about just how Argentina will win rather than if.

A win to nil is the obvious answer, so obvious it's priced up at 1/21.50, while Argentina to win both halves at 11/102.11 is a standout as I can't see Cape Verde scoring and with the depth the defending champions have you can easily see the subs, such as Julian Alvarez, coming on to finish off the job.

But I don't think it'll be a landslide, it's in the Miami heat and humidity even if kicking off later in the day so Argentina will look to get ahead and be pragmatic about staying there - so Argentina to win and under 3.5 goals at 4/61.67 would be the outright pick.

However, we like a bit more meat on the bones in these daily previews so that's going to be combined with a Lionel Messi anytime goal at 4/91.44 because, well, does that really need an explanation? And also 2+ cards for Cape Verde at 4/51.80.

Austria got two and Jordan three against Argentina and Cape Verde got two against similar opposition in Uruguay - Miami is Messi's new home so the crowd will be all about him and we know he's pretty well protected by referees anyway. That's a touch of value in what is a one-sided betting heat.

Back another 4/15.00 Bet Builder in Messi market

And so then, how to back Lionel Messi even more? Well, there's a decent OddsBoost on the Sportsbook for Messi to have 2+ shots on target and to be fouled 2+ times at 11/102.11.

It's landed once against Austria, but he's been there or thereabouts all three games - having four shots on target and being fouled once against Algeria and having a shot on target and one foul against in just half an hour against Jordan. So he should be fine here.

A nice one I like here is also the 9/52.80 on Messi to score from outside the box. Two of his six goals have come from outside the area and seven of 15 shots - facing a packed defend it'd be no surprise to see him turn and bend one in from over 18 yards out.

Messi to score twice is 11/53.20 and will be popular, rightly so, while for an all the threes double it's a nice 4/15.00 for Messi to have 3+ shots on target and be fouled 3+ times.

Alexis Mac Allister looks the next best option at the prices as he's 10/111.91 for a shot on target, but he could be of more use at the same 10/111.91 to give away 2+ fouls as he's done in two out of three games.

So too has Lautaro Martinez, who is 4/61.67 for another 2+ fouls game.

Could we back any Cape Verde players? Well, they've scored just twice and had seven shots on target in three games, but if you're looking for a punt then your best bets are Jamiro Monteiro at 3/14.00 and Kevin Pina at [9/2 to have a shot on target.

They've both had one each from four attempts, and Pina scored against Uruguay so will not be scared of having a pot shot if he gets the chance.

You'd expect a few fouls but Argentina have actually given away twice as many as Cape Verde so far - that'll likely change but it's a point to note with their players pretty short in the fouls markets. And, besides, we all just want to back Messi don't we?

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