Australia v Egypt: Expect a Texas Shootout

Tight clash expected in Arlington

Click here for Australia v Egypt odds
Friday 3 July, 19:00
Live on BBC One

Both Australia and Egypt are looking to make history on Friday night at the Dallas Stadium, with a place in the last 16 up for grabs. Egypt haven't played a knockout game at the World Cup since 1934, while the Aussies have never won a knockout game at the tournament.

Australia - the 3.613/5 outsiders in the Match Odds market - came into the tournament in the knowledge that it would be their defensive strength that would take them past opponents, and so it has proved. They beat Turkiye 2-0 in their opener with a classic display of contain and counter football, as coach Tony Popovic's well-drilled defence (known as the Popovic Dome) kept a talented Turkish team at bay.

A 2-0 loss to the hosts USA was perfectly understandable given the current form of Mauricio Pochettino's men, and the Socceroos then ground out a 0-0 draw against Paraguay to secure a place in the last 32.

Egypt are the 1.758/11 favourites to qualify in this tie, but they have serious doubts over the fitness of talisman Mohamed Salah. The Liverpool legend is struggling with a hamstring injury, and even if he is declared fit, it seems unlikely he'll be the explosive threat we know he can be.

Egypt have been underwhelming so far. They drew 1-1 with Belgium in a creditable opening result, but they then needed a second-half comeback to overcome New Zealand 3-1, and they only avoided defeat in a 1-1 draw against Iran because the Iranians had a last-gasp winner ruled out for offside.

With Australia likely to play safety-first football and Egypt potentially hamstrung (see what I did there) by an injury to Salah, I can't see this being a shootout. Under 2.5 Goals is too skinny to be of interest at 1.511/2, but what you can do is use the Bet Builder to back Australia/Draw Double Chance and Under 2.5 Goals, which comes out at 9/101.90.

Tight clash could go all the way

Australia give very little away, and as there is so much riding on this last-32 clash, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the tie go all the way to a penalty shootout. You can get a price of 4/15.00 on either team to win on penalties via the Sportsbook's Method of Victory market, and this stage of the World Cup has already seen its fair share of tight contests.

There's a 9/52.80 Bet Builder of interest involving Watford wild card Nestory Irankunda. The exciting 20-year-old didn't quite make the grade at Bayern Munich, but he has caught the eye in this tournament. He scored a superb breakaway goal against Turkiye, and he has had two shots in each of his two starts. I'll back him here to have two shots or more.

I'll also back the Australia goalkeeper (probably Patrick Beach) to make two or more saves. Beach made eight against Turkiye in the opener and a further couple against Paraguay. Egypt have had at least three shots on target in all three of their games, so it isn't beyond the realms of possibility that Beach can rack up a couple of saves here.

Finally, I'll throw in Under 2.5 Goals, which brings us to 9/52.80.

Notable winners on Betting.Betfair so far at the 2026 World Cup...

- Mark Stinchcombe's stunning 38/139.00 Bet Builder in South Korea v Czechia
- Paul Higham's 9/25.50 Bet Builder in Mexico's MD1 defeat of South Africa
- Paul also tipped 13/53.60 (Canada v Bosnia) & 15/82.88 (Brazil v Morocco) draws
- A 6/17.00 winning ACCA for Mark on Sunday at the World Cup
- Andy Robson's 9/110.00 five-leg ACCA as Germany wallop Curacao
- A 13/53.60 winner for Paul as France beat Senegal with both teams scoring
- Paul's at it again, an 11/43.75 winning Best Bet in Switzerland v Bosnia
- An 11/26.50 winner for Jimmy The Punt as Jonathan David scores 2+ goals
- Paul's 2/13.00 headline tip in Germany v Ivory Coast was a winner
- Jack Critchley delivered a 5/16.00 goalscorer treble on day 13
- Japan score but lose to give Paul Higham a 3/14.00 winner
- France and Norway help Andy Robson land a 9/25.50 ACCA
- A Lucas Bergvall fouls frenzy v France secures 9/25.50 winner for Jimmy
- Jack bagged four out of four winners in MD21 including an 11/26.50 ACCA

Now read our other World Cup previews here!