Aston Villa v Arsenal: Back world class midfielder to shine in a Gunners win at 9/5

Click here for Aston Villa v Arsenal odds
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Much changed Villa but Gunners look formidable

It could barely have been a more contrasting start to the new season for Arsenal and Aston Villa in the Premier League's opening weekend of fixtures.

The Gunners didn't need to get out of second gear to beat newly-promoted Coventry 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium, while Villa went down 4-0 to Brighton, conceding all four goals inside 31 minutes and having new summer signing Joao Gomes sent off before the interval.

But while the defending Premier League champions cruised to victory largely by having a better team, similar to the one they had last season with a few quality additions, Villa's chastening defeat was much down to having a starting XI almost unrecognisable from the team Unai Emery regularly fielded last season.

Ezri Konsa, Lucas Digne, Youri Tielemans and Morgan Rogers were sold before last week's visit to the Amex, while goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez and striker Ollie Watkins weren't even in the matchday squad due to impending transfers. Martinez has since signed for Chelsea while Watkins is reportedly in Saudi Arabia to complete a £50+m move to Al-Hilal

To lose six regular starters is a huge blow to Emery's ambitions, and although this week they've brought in experienced German midfielder Leon Goretzka along with exciting youngster Johan Manzambi and the suspended Gomes, Villa's squad looks quite different, and much weaker, than the one they had last season.

For Mikel Arteta it's a different story. They haven't lost any of their big-name title-winning players and they look to have signed a gem in Greek winger Christos Tzolis, not to mention world-class midfielder Bruno Guimaraes from Newcastle and centre-back reinforcement Konsa from Monday night's opponents.

Away win the obvious call

Given everything we've said above, it's no surprise at all to see Arsenal trading as the 1/21.50 favourites in the Match Odds market, with Villa at 6/17.00 and the Draw at 10/34.33.

To outsiders looking in, it might seem strange to see a Premier League team, playing away from home to a team that finished in the top four last season, available to back at just 1/21.50, but I believe the price is correct, and probably very fair, given the gulf I expect to see between the two teams this season.

Time will tell, of course, but it's an Arsenal win all day long for me.

Below is a chart showing the percentage chance of each outcome based on the Betfair Exchange Match Odds market.

It's at this point that, when very confident about a team winning but not liking the odds, I'd usually go to the handicap markets for a bet. But Arsenal never strike me as a team that keeps their foot on the gas when in control of a football game, they just seem to get the job done.

In fact, from 19 Premier League away games last season the Gunners only won three times by a margin of more than one goal. That stat is off-putting, and while Arteta's team could be a different animal this season, I'm not willing to dive in to back Arsenal -1 at 7/52.40.

Instead, we'll just include the away win in a Bet Builder.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals a coin toss call

Since Aston Villa were promoted back to the Premier League in 2019 this particular fixture - Villa at home to Arsenal - has had a mixed bag of results. From the seven meetings, Villa have won four times while the Gunners emerged victorious three times.

Five of those seven clashes resulted in Under 2.5 Goals paying out, but the two games that busted the three goals total came more recently with nine goals scored in total across the two matches (2-1 & 2-4).

So - and apologies for being largely unhelpful here - I'm struggling to make a call in terms of the number of goals we could see in this match, and so too is the market with Under 2.5 Goals trading at 4/51.80 and Over 2.5 Goals available to back at 1/12.00.

That's how I see it, it's pretty much a coin toss market.

Rely on Odegaard for 9/52.80 Bet Builder

And so to my only bet of the game, which involves an Arsenal win with a player goal or assist.

I'd like to see more of Arsenal's new winger Tzolis before considering him regularly in some markets. He was excellent in the Gunners' 3-0 over Man City in the Community Shield and again last week in the 3-0 win over Coventry, officially registering two assists but also having a huge hand in another goal across those two games.

The 24-year-old Greek international could turn out to be one of the signings of the season, but for this game I'm going to back Martin Odegaard to score or assist.

After an injury-plagued season last term he could be like a new signing for Arteta this season, and he's been brilliant in Arsenal's two games so far, scoring two goals and creating plenty of big chances.

With Odegaard's ability, vision and passing range, as well as being one of the Gunners' free-kick takers, I feel that he's just as likely to assist as he is to score, and at 6/42.50 to score or assist in this game then that will do for me.

Combined with the Arsenal win the bet pays out at 9/52.80, so while we're not pushing the boat out with a big price Bet Builder following last week's 15/28.50 winner, I'm more than happy with that price for two outcomes that, in my opinion, have a big chance of happening.

Bookmark our Premier League page for all the latest news, tips and previews.