Manchester United v Ipswich: Back goals and a Dara O'Shea shot at Old Trafford

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Sunday 30 August, 16:30
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One bad afternoon or something deeper?

There is a very simple question hanging over Manchester United this weekend: was Hull an aberration or a warning?

The market hasn't overreacted that's for sure. United are as short as 2/51.40 with Betfair to beat Ipswich, while another promoted-team shock is priced at 13/27.50. That would mean Ipswich following directly in the footsteps of Hull, who rocked United with a 2-0 victory on the opening weekend.

United had 72% possession but created precious little, were second best physically and were punished from set pieces. Suddenly, all the optimism surrounding Michael Carrick's first full season in charge has a rather large question mark hanging over it.

Old Trafford should help change the equation.

United won eight of their nine Premier League home games under Carrick last season and, in his final 17 league matches in charge, nobody in the division won more games, collected more points or scored more goals. United won 12, accumulated 39 points and scored 33 goals in that spell.

I'm not prepared to suddenly conclude that Hull exposed a fundamentally broken Manchester United side. It may simply have been a horrible combination of an opening-day promoted-team performance, some poor set-piece defending and a United side that never found its rhythm. They will be a popular odds-on chance, as they always are.

Super Sunday Bet 1 - Expect goals at Old Trafford

Manchester United games have been a bit of cash machine for punters in the last 12 months.

United were involved in more goals than any other Premier League team last season. There were 119 in their matches: 69 scored and 50 conceded.

Of the two goal-based options to attack, there is more reason to take the 4/51.80 on both teams scoring rather than playing shorter at 4/71.57 on the over 2.5 line.

Ipswich will find this a step up at Old Trafford. But that's exactly what makes Gary O'Neil's side such an intriguing opponent.

They arrive with momentum after beating Sunderland 2-1 on the opening weekend with new signings already making an impact. Julio Enciso impressed and Emersonn scored on his debut before Jack Clarke delivered the 90th-minute winner.

And then there is the sheer scale of the rebuild.

Ipswich have spent around £190m on 13 first-team players this summer. That makes them difficult to assess. We simply don't know yet how good this team is.

But from a betting perspective, I quite like that.

They have fresh legs, confidence and nothing to lose.

Super Sunday Bet 2 - O'Shea to take aim at vulnerable United

Never has it been more important to do the basics right in the Premier League. And the alarm bells will be ringing at Old Trafford based on that part of the game last weekend at Hull.

United won just 42% of their duels in that 2-0 defeat - the lowest figure recorded by any Premier League team on the opening weekend. That lack of physical bite is a concern in a league where you simply cannot afford to be second best in the fundamentals.

Teams like United, who have shown a vulnerability in winning duels and being organised, are ripe in providing betting opportunities when it comes to their opposition creating chances from set pieces.

Since Carrick took charge, United have conceded 20 Premier League goals in 18 matches - 10 of them from set plays. That's an extraordinary ratio. Only Bournemouth and Leeds have conceded a higher proportion of their goals from set-pieces during that period.

And Hull provided the perfect example of how to exploit it, scoring both goals from dead-ball situations in their stunning victory last weekend.

So why should we expect Ipswich to be any different?

Well, they have a very obvious weapon too, one of my go-to guys when it comes to centre-back and the props market.

Dara O'Shea.

The Ipswich centre-back is the first-contact man on set pieces and averaged 0.95 shots per 90 over the last 12 months. That's a great number for a defender and tells us something about how aggressive Ipswich are in targeting him.

Rather than simply backing Ipswich to score, I'm looking for the player who could benefit most from the weakness and that is overpriced in the market.

O'Shea is exactly the type of player I want involved when an opponent has shown repeated vulnerability from set plays. He's not waiting for the second ball on the edge of the box - he's attacking the first contact.

And if United continue to look as vulnerable in the air and as passive in their defensive duels as they did against Hull, Ipswich have every reason to target that area and get O'Shea up at every opportunity.

Depending on which way you want to play the angle, you can either play the shorter price and take him to have one or more shots which can be snapped up at 1/12.00 with Betfair. Or you could take the hero avenue and try to shoot the lights out with O'Shea's 16/117.00 anytime price. Both are great value plays.

Like our tips? You can back both Lewis' bets in a double that pays at 4/15.00.

Now read more Premier League betting advice here!