Tottenham v Aston Villa: Unders the value bet for goal-shy duo

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Spurs starting to wake up?

Click here for Tottenham v Aston Villa odds
Saturday 19 September, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports

While a 3-1 Carabao Cup loss to Liverpool at Anfield on Tuesday night seems to mark a continuation of Tottenham's terrible start to the season, there were some positives.

For starters, Spurs scored an actual football goal against top-flight opposition. After four straight blanks in the Premier League, that was most welcome and, in truth, Tottenham created enough big chances to have scored two or three.

At the other end of the pitch, it was disappointing to concede three times although all Liverpool's goals were of the high-class variety.

And while they've again failed to hit the net in the last two Premier League games, clean sheets in those matches against Nottingham Forest and Everton did at least secure two points - enough for Roberto De Zerbi's men to end MD4 outside of the relegation zone.

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Premier League Matchday 5: Opta stats and tips for every game

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Villa repeating slow start

Tottenham sitting two spots above Villa after four matches would have been a decent pre-season prediction. But that might have presumed something like sixth v eighth; the reality is it's 17th v 19th on Saturday lunchtime.

Yep, Villa have made an even worse start to their Premier League campaign than Tottenham after defeats to Brighton, Arsenal and Nottingham Forest and a 0-0 draw at Hull.

Of course, Villa fans know they've been here before. Last season, Villa picked up two points from the first four games and didn't manage to score once.

At least they've found the net this time and despite that poor start last term, Villa picked up dramatically, getting to the fringes of a title challenge and winning the Europa League.

Unai Emery has a huge amount of goodwill in the bank so, despite the squad upheaval, the expectation remains that he'll steer the ship in the right direction sooner rather than later.

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Read Ste Tudor's early look at this weekend's action

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Head-to-heads say draw is due

So, do either side justify a win bet right now?

Tottenham are 21/202.05 to bank their first league victory of the campaign while Aston Villa are 11/43.75 to do likewise. The Draw is 5/23.50.

Remarkably, the last 22 Premier League meetings between the pair haven't produced a draw so maybe it's time for a stalemate.

Spurs won 15 of those 22 meetings so they're the pick on the long-term head-to-heads although a more recent study period points to parity and Villa have a good recent record at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

In addition, Tottenham at around Even money at home doesn't look smart given their continuing poor form when hosting.

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*Last six meetings

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Spurs v Villa Tip 1 - Goals could be in short supply

Having scored just one goal between them in the league this season, Under 2.5 Goals at 10/111.91 immediately widens the eyes.

But is this a trap?

Possibly. Villa have started to score freely in the cups, beating Club Brugge 3-2 (Champions League) and Coventry 3-1 (Carabao). Their 2-1 home loss to Forest also went over 2.5, as did Tottenham's loss at Anfield.

But most of that mixed evidence comes from cups when starting XIs are juggled and there's more freedom to be had.

Both look a little uptight in the Premier League so Under 2.5 is the call. For those who fancy a clean sheet for at least one of the struggling pair, No in the Both Teams to Score market is 6/52.20.

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Spurs v Villa Tip 2 - Pedro Porro can help land Bet Builder

The chance to land a Pedro Porro Shots on Target bet was ruled out at Everton last week when he missed the game.

The Spanish World Cup winner was also absent for the trip to Anfield on Tuesday but De Zerbi has confirmed that Porro will be back for this one after overcoming a muscle injury.

As noted last time, he's played just two Premier League games so far but in his only home game he pulled the trigger four times against Newcastle, hitting the target once.

Porro takes free-kicks as well and let's recall that he scored twice for Spain in this summer's World Cup.

For the second leg of a Bet Builder, try John McGinn to force a save.

McGinn, surprisingly, hasn't troubled a goalkeeper in the Premier League this season but in cup games against PSG, Club Brugge and Coventry, he's had a combined four shots on target.

The double on both having at least one SOT is 9/25.50. Chuck in Under 2.5 Goals and the bet pays at nearly 13/114.00.

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