Nottingham Forest v Coventry: Trio of Tricky Trees fancied in 7/2 Bet Builders

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Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

Forest on the hunt for first home goal

I feared before the season started that Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Maranakis and manager Oliver Glasner would be a marriage made in hell. Maranakis, a trigger-happy, attention-loving owner who won't stand for poor results, and Glasner, a manager who does things his own way and doesn't like outsider interference.

And when Forest lost their opening two games, both at home, without scoring, I did wonder whether we'd see the quickest Premier League sacking in history.

But that was probably somewhat over-the-top thinking on my part, and no doubt the Maranakis/Glasner relationship is now blossoming with Forest on a three-game unbeaten run and sitting mid-table.

Maranakis will almost certainly demand more, however, and that will include a first home goal of the season after Forest failed to score at the City Ground against Leeds (twice) and Tottenham. Glasner's men did score two at Anfield, and they scored two at Villa Park at the weekend in an excellent performance and win, so their confidence is definitely on the rise.

Sky Blues yet to get off the mark

The alarm bells are ringing at Coventry. Four Premier League games played, four defeats, 10 goals conceded, zero goals scored.

While fellow promoted teams Hull (still unbeaten) and Ipswich (two wins from four games) have started the season well, it couldn't have started any worse for last season's Championship winners, and with the Sky Blues rock bottom of the table, manager Frank Lampard's odds were slashed from 13/114.00 to 5/23.50 favourite in the Betfair Sportsbook's Next Manager to Leave market.

But there are some green shoots of hope for Lampard's men. On Sunday they lost 5-0 at home to Brighton, but it was Seagulls goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen who was awarded Player of the Match after he saved all six of Coventry's shots on target. The Sky Blues really could have scored two or three themselves.

Lampard's men lost at home again in midweek, this time 3-1 to Aston Villa in the League Cup, but they at least scored a goal and had 15 shots. It feels like it's just a matter of time before they start to pick up some points, but that time might have to be after the international break.

Home win the obvious call

Nottingham Forest are the 8/131.61 favourites to win this Saturday tea-time kick-off, and I would consider that price to be very fair.

Glasner's men appear to be hitting top gear with draws against Liverpool and Tottenham, and last week's win at Aston Villa, and I'm happy to ignore the fact that they've failed to score in front of their own fans this season.

Forest boast some excellent attacking quality in James McAtee and the brilliant Morgan Gibbs-White, both of whom figure prominently in various 'chances created' tables in the early part of the season. And in attacking wing-back Daniel Munoz I believe Forest have signed arguably the best wing-back in the Premier League.

So in a nutshell, I think Forest will be too strong for Coventry in this game, and I'm confident they'll pick up the three points, though tipping 8/131.61 shots as a single is not my cup of tea, hence we bring a Bet Builder into play.

For those wanting to back Coventry you can do so at 4/15.00, while the draw can be backed at 29/103.90.

Below you can see the percentage chances of each Match Odds outcome according to the Betfair Exchange market, which will update in real time.

McAtee fancied to bag an assist

As alluded to earlier, Gibbs-White is undoubtedly Forest's star man, and that means that former Manchester City starlet James McAtee is perhaps going under the radar slightly.

The 23-year-old has been excellent in Forest's midfield so far this term, and only Brighton's Pascal Groß (13) and Arsenal's Martin Odegaard (12) have created more chances than the 11 he has to his name in the Premier League during the first four games of the season.

A chance created effectively would be an assist if the player who McAtee has created the chance for then goes on to score, so it seems like only a matter of time before the Forest midfielder gets his first assist of the season.

He's 13/53.60 to register an assist, so against a Coventry team that concede plenty of shots - 40 conceded in their last two games - I'm happy to wager that one of Forest's shots will result in a goal from a McAtee assist.

We can boost the assist odds slightly to 7/24.50 by adding a Nottm Forest win to a Bet Builder, and that will be my main bet of the game.

Back Gibbs-White and Munoz shots at 7/24.50

Although desperate to pick up their first point of the season, I don't see Coventry shutting up shop just yet by playing defensive and trying to nullify the opposition. In fact, it could be the opposite with Lampard desperate to get his first league win of the season and sending his team out to attack.

The Sky Blues have conceded 35 shots in their two Premier League away games this term, and in their two recent home games they conceded a total of 40 shots.

So I'd be disappointed if Forest don't register close to 20 shots in this game, and that brings in the aforementioned Gibbs-White and Munoz.

Gibbs-White has registered exactly three shots in each of Forest's home games this term, but given those matches were against Leeds and Tottenham, I'm happy to chance that he'll register at least four shots against Coventry. Munoz had two shots in his only game for Crystal Palace this season, and he had one on his first start for Forest at Villa last week. He should be capable of at least two here.

Backing both selections in a Bet Builder pays out at 7/24.50 if successful, and remember, with all player props bets, should the player we've backed be substituted then the leg of the bet rolls on to the player replacing him.

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