World Cup Day 1 Tipsheet: Best bets and predictions including a 38/1 shot on the opening day

Mexico v South Africa Tip - Back goals in the opening World Cup game

Click here for Mexico v South Africa odds
Thursday, 20:00
Live on ITV

Mexico come into this as heavy favourites at 2/51.40 on the Betfair Sportsbook having won eight of their last nine competitive matches, scoring two or more goals in seven of those. In four home friendlies this year they've generated 8.95 xG to showcase their prowess (2.24 per-game). By contrats South Africa arrive here with no wins in five despite being favourites in four of those. A clear theme in their matches has been goals, with nine of their last 14 competitive games seeing Over 2.5 goals winners. Giving up chances is an issue, conceding 5.27 xG across their four AFCON matches despite being favourites in two of them and playing the 10 men of Egypt for half of the game.

Looking back at recent World Cup opening games there has also been a trend towards goals:

• 2022: Qatar (hosts) 0-2 Ecuador
• 2018: Russia (hosts) 5-0 Saudi Arabia
• 2014: Brazil (hosts) 3-1 Croatia
• 2010: South Africa (hosts) 1-1 Mexico
• 2006: Germany (hosts) 4-2 Costa Rica

An average of 3.80 per-game yet the market is only anticipating 2.50 goals here. Opening games produce carnival atmospheres and that feeds down to the players on the pitch. The Estadio Azteca sits at an altitude of 2,200m above sea level and with 19 of South Africa's 26 man squad based in their domestic league, it could be a long afternoon in Mexico City for them. Given the low goal expectancy, my betting approach is to use the Betfair Exchange to back Over 2.25 goals at around even money. This bet gives us an element of insurance, a game featuring no goals or just a single goal will see our bet completely lose but we will get half our stakes back if there are two. Any total over that is a winner.

South Korea v Czechia Tip - Back set-piece success for the Czechs

Click here for South Korea v Czechia odds
Friday, 03:00
Live on ITV

A very tight clash on the horizon with South Korea slight 8/52.60 favourites and Czechia only slight underdogs at 9/52.80. The draw is just 2/13.00. I'm not sure what we're going to get with South Korea. They have beaten the likes of USA, Ghana and Paraguay in the last 12 months but have then suffered heavy defeats to Brazil 5-0 and Ivory Coast 4-0. On the other hand we know exactly what we're going to get with Czechia.

A chunky 45% of their goals in European qualifying came from set-pieces - the highest percentage of any side - which should come as no surprise as only Belgium (83) took more corners than Czechia's 75. They rank as the fifth highest team in the tournament based on average height at 185.7cm and will look to take advantage every time they have a dead ball. Key target is captain Ladislav Krejci with five goals in his last 23 caps. Indeed he's very adept at getting on the end of deliveries managing 22 shots in this period. Key provider is Vladimir Coufal who takes corners, free-kicks and delivers long-throws. He averaged 1.5 key passes per-game in UEFA qualifying, 2.5 per-game in their latest UEFA Nations campaign and 2.7 per-game at EURO 2024.

Coufal comes into this off the back of a terrific season as a provider with eight assists for Hoffenheim - the tenth most in the Bundesliga. We can get a huge 38/1 for Krejci to score anytime and Coufal to make an assist meaning we can get excited every time Czechia get a dead ball in a dangerous position at three o'clock in the morning, especially with Betfair's Bet £10 Get £10 bet builder offer throughout the World Cup.

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