Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook: Is Manchester City's summer window rebuild enough to challenge Arsenal?

City's rebuild sends a title warning to Arsenal

Manchester City have spent a staggering £440.3m this summer - more than any other Premier League club - and the message from their recruitment is pretty clear.

Win now.

That makes their 16/54.20 price for the Premier League title on the Betfair Sportsbook particularly interesting.

Arsenal are the overwhelming 5/61.84 favourites and, on paper, there is plenty of logic behind that. They are the dominant force, possess an exceptionally deep squad and have recruited intelligently again albeit without nailing down a genuine superstar in their forward line. A Julian Alvarez could have been a game changer. 

But history tells us something worth remembering.

Teams that finally end a long wait for a league title can often find retaining it considerably harder than winning it in the first place. Arsenal have failed to defend their title in each of the last nine occasions they have won it.

That doesn't mean they won't do it this time. But at odds-on, you're asking history to be ignored.

And Manchester City have certainly given themselves a fighting chance.

City's squad looks ready to win now

Rodri's departure is an enormous blow but City's response in the transfer market has been spectacular.

Enzo Fernandez arrived from Chelsea for a joint Premier League record £125m, matching Alexander Isak's move from Newcastle to Liverpool last summer. Elliott Anderson, Iliman Ndiaye and Ayyoub Bouaddi have also been added to an increasingly fascinating squad.

City are trying to build the next great Guardiola team without Guardiola.

That's the fascinating part.

Pep has gone, yet the club's recruitment suggests they haven't accepted a period of transition. They have gone shopping for established quality and high-upside talent simultaneously.

Fernandez, in particular, could be transformative. His ability to progress the ball, dictate tempo and contribute goals gives City another midfielder capable of operating at the highest level. It's top dollar but he is one of the best around.

And there is something streetwise about this squad now. It looks built to compete immediately rather than merely develop for the future.

The risk vs reward of backing Man City

So, should we be backing the 16/54.20 then?

I'm tempted. Very tempted.

But there is one enormous problem.

We still don't know the outcome of City's unresolved Financial Fair Play charges.

Any potential points penalty could be absolutely fatal to their title hopes. As a bettor we have no insurance against that outcome.

It makes me very nervous about taking any long-term City stance.

Until there is clarity over City's outstanding charges, I'd rather watch this rebuild develop than invest at 16/54.20.

However, we could just be looking at a situation here where the best team in this Premier League are the second favourites for the title. They are though just a watching brief at this stage. 

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