Lewis Jones' England World Cup Notebook: Thomas Tuchel odds-on to stay despite World Cup heartbreak

July 16: England 1-2 Argentina Reaction

From Dreamland to Nightmare...again

The recurring nightmare happened again. England once again threw it away. Blew it away.

Football has a habit of turning one decision into the defining image of a tournament.

For Thomas Tuchel, that decision arrived in the 71st minute of the 2-1 defeat to Argentina.

England were 1-0 up, Anthony Gordon's second-half strike had them within touching distance of a first World Cup final since 1966 and the game looked exactly where England wanted it.

Then came the switch.

Tuchel abandoned the back four in favour of a back five, looking to protect the lead. On came Ezri Konsa for Gordon before other defensive reinforcements followed. Instead of being brave and bold like he has promised in the past, Tuchel's tactics invited pressure, surrendered territory and watched the game drift away at an alarming rate.

Stats lay bare England's capitulation

The numbers are brutal.

Across the final 21 minutes England conceded twice and had just seven per cent of possession. Argentina monopolised the ball with a staggering 93 per cent share, pinning England inside their own half until the inevitable happened.

Managers live and die by these moments. This one will follow Tuchel for a long time.

It's easy to judge with hindsight. Had England held on, Tuchel's switch would probably have been labelled genius pragmatic game management.

Instead, it became the tactical turning point of the World Cup.

The collapse wasn't just about conceding two goals. It was about losing complete control of the contest. England stopped asking questions and Argentina sensed it immediately.

The emotional reaction after a major tournament exit is almost always the same. Somebody has to carry the blame.

Will Tuchel be sacked? The Betfair odds suggest not

But the betting suggests the Football Association are expected to keep faith.

Tuchel is 1/51.20 with the Betfair Sportsbook to still be England manager for their next match against Spain on September 26.

Tuchel is 3/14.00 to be replaced before that Spain fixture.

Howe and Pep head the list of Tuchel replacements

If England do decide a fresh voice is needed, Eddie Howe heads the Betfair Sportsbook market at 5/23.50.

His stock has continued to rise thanks to the impressive work he's done in club football and he'd represent a natural fit for a national team looking to build around an exciting generation of English talent.

Pep Guardiola sits next at 100/304.30.

It's a name guaranteed to grab attention whenever an international vacancy appears, although persuading arguably the greatest club coach of his generation to go down the tournament football route would be a remarkable move.

Then there's the familiar option.

Gareth Southgate is available at 10/111.00 to return for a second spell in charge. It's a price that reflects possibility rather than expectation, but stranger managerial stories have unfolded in international football.

All this talk of replacements probably will be pointless. Tuchel himself appeared to remove any uncertainty after the final whistle.

Asked directly whether he would continue, Tuchel replied: "We keep on going with the contract until the home Euros."

That sounds like a man expecting to stay. Whether everyone else agrees is another matter.

---

July 12: Norway 1-2 England Reaction

Is Bellingham England's greatest ever player now?

Jude Bellingham, eh? What a monster.

England's 2-1 World Cup quarter-final win over Norway was another example of why he's becoming the defining player of this tournament. With the game delicately poised, he took ownership once again, scoring the winner to drag England into the last four. At this stage, it almost feels inevitable.

We'll blow our own trumpet because there are times when you've got to. Scroll back through this England Notebook and Bellingham was advised at 20/121.00 to win the Golden Ball. Two weeks and a string of statement performances later, he's been slashed into 7/24.50 on the Sportsbook.

That's some move.

There are moments during tournaments when players stop looking like stars and start looking like icons. Bellingham is edging into that territory. He's dictating games, deciding games and carrying himself with an authority that belies his age. The aura is real.

The history books are beginning to offer some remarkable company, too. Diego Maradona was the last player to score braces in consecutive World Cup knockout matches. That's the sort of level Bellingham is beginning to flirt with.

What makes this run even more impressive is the timing of his goals.

Five of his six goals this summer have either brought England level or put them in front. These aren't consolation strikes or goals in dead rubbers. They're interventions. They change matches. They win knockout football.

Gary Lineker suggested Bellingham could become England's "greatest ever" footballer. I don't think that's as controversial as it might have sounded a few weeks ago.

In fact, during the Norway game I turned to a mate and said Bellingham might already have a case of being our greatest ever son.

He laughed.

"Greatest ever? Behave."

His response was to mention Bobby Moore. Fair enough. But beyond that, the list became surprisingly difficult.

A few minutes later, Bellingham put England into the semi-finals with another game-changing goal. I simply turned towards him and hit the Bellingham celebration.

Conversation over.

Yes, the outright markets have cottoned on. Going from 20/121.00 to 7/24.50 for the Golden Ball tells its own story. But the player markets still feel a touch behind the curve.

Bellingham is still 16/54.20 to score in the semi-final.

Really?

Given the role he's playing, the confidence coursing through him, the licence he has to arrive in the penalty area and his habit of delivering when England need him most, that's not a price I'd be rushing to lay if I were trading the game.

In a World Cup full of superstars, Bellingham may just be sitting at the very top of the tree.

---

July 6: Mexico 2-3 England Reaction

Can England match France's Fab Four?

The narrative around England's attack at this World Cup has changed dramatically in the space of little more than a week.

For the first time in this tournament, England's front four all delivered on the biggest stage together.

The final 25 minutes against DR Congo hinted something was brewing. The thrilling 3-2 win over Mexico confirmed it.

Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham didn't just produce moments - they produced a complete attacking performance packed with quality, intelligence and resilience when England needed it most.

It's the sort of display that wins World Cups.

World-class Kane and Bellingham have been sensational

France remain deserved favourites at 7/42.75 with the Betfair Sportsbook, while England have shortened into 5/16.00 after back-to-back statement victories. On paper, France's attacking quartet of Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Bradley Barcola still sets the benchmark.

And rightly so.

Collectively they've racked up a remarkable 28 goal involvements at this tournament and, when they're in full flow, there probably isn't a more exhilarating forward line in international football.

They're the glamorous option.

But in a one-off knockout match at a tournament would you pick them over England's four?

I'm not so sure anymore.

England's front four have quietly built some frightening numbers of their own. Across the last two matches they've finally clicked as a unit and now boast 17 goal involvements between them, spearheaded by Kane and Bellingham.

Those two have been nothing short of sensational.

Ten World Cup goals between them tells its own story.

Kane continues to produce those trademark decisive moments inside the penalty area while Bellingham has become the heartbeat of everything dangerous England create.

It's beginning to look like the partnership capable of ending 60 years of hurt.

Off the ball, England beat France

What perhaps separates England from France, though, isn't necessarily what happens with the ball.

It's what happens without it.

France's front four might possess greater flair and individual brilliance, but England's quartet offers something arguably more valuable over seven knockout matches - relentless work-rate, tactical discipline and an appetite to do the ugly side of the game.

That's why this team feels more complete.

No player summed that up better than Gordon against Mexico.

His numbers were outstanding for a winger.

He won more fouls than anyone on the pitch (5), contested more duels than anyone else (21) and regained possession on four occasions. And he won the penalty at a cruical point in the match, seizing upon an opportunity as others stood still.

What elevates him into the elite bracket is that his physical output matches his technical quality. In modern football that's an invaluable combination and one every top manager covets. It's why Barcelona have splashed the cash.

Kane supplies the ruthless finishing.

Bellingham provides the personality and match-winning moments.

Saka stretches defences until they snap.

Gordon gives England the legs, aggression and intensity that allows everything else to function.

With France still 7/42.75 favourites and England available at 5/16.00 with the Betfair Sportsbook, there's every chance those prices will be tested if these two attacking units continue on their current trajectory.

For the first time this summer, England's front four aren't simply showing promise.

They're announcing themselves as genuine World Cup winners in waiting.

---

July 2: England 2-1 DR Congo Reaction

Don't ignore Rice's assist potential

Managers earn their money with the big calls.

Thomas Tuchel rolled the dice when England needed a spark against DR Congo, moving Declan Rice from the heart of midfield to right-back with his side trailing 1-0 in the World Cup last-32 clash.

It looked a desperate move at the time. By full-time, it looked inspired.

England turned the game around to win 2-1 thanks to a Harry Kane double, but the tactical tweak that changed everything might just have handed bettors an angle to exploit heading into the last 16 against Mexico.

England's right-back position has become a revolving door in this tournament.

Reece James, Jarell Quansah, Djed Spence, Rice and Ezri Konsa have all been used there already. James and Quansah are now injured, while Konsa and Rice are naturally central players and Spence endured a difficult evening against DR Congo.

When Rice shifted across, England had control. His athleticism, positional awareness and, crucially, his quality in possession gave England a different platform.

England started building attacks with far greater purpose, allowing Kane to spend more time where he is most dangerous. Two goals later and England were through.

Tuchel must decide if Rice stays right

Now Tuchel has a genuine selection headache. Does he really move his best central midfielder out of midfield?

Normally, the answer would be no. But tournament football doesn't always allow managers the luxury of ideal solutions. With injuries mounting and no obvious specialist available, Rice may simply be England's best option at right-back.

From a betting perspective, these positional switches are exactly the type of detail we should be trying to identify before the markets fully react.

A player's role is often more important than their name.

Rice has already created 12 chances in just three World Cup matches, highlighting the creative influence he's carrying in this England side. If he's stationed permanently on the right, those crossing opportunities and deliveries into the box are likely to increase.

Rice's assist prices for the Mexico game could become very attractive if he's named at right-back then.

His delivery from wide areas is among the best in Europe and he'd have regular opportunities to supply Kane and Jude Bellingham, whose movement and finishing inside the penalty area remains England's biggest weapon.

If Rice starts at right-back against Mexico, don't be surprised if the assist and shots-created markets are where the value lies.

---

June 28: Panama 0-2 England Reaction

Bellingham brilliance makes 20/121.00 shot tempting

World Cups have a habit of creating one defining figure. The player that drags his team through the big moments, dominates the headlines. And this World Cup in particular is one for the superstar. 

Jude Bellingham looks ready to be that player for England. 

England's 2-0 win over Panama felt like another reminder that when Bellingham is fully fit, everything around him becomes easier. He didn't just influence the game - he owned it.

A goal, an assist and the personality to demand the ball when England needed someone to take charge. It was the sort of display that makes you sing "Three Lions" with a little more belief.

England are getting the version of Bellingham that terrorises defences for Madrid: driving through midfield, arriving in the box at exactly the right moment and carrying the swagger of someone convinced every game belongs to him.

If you're bullish on the Three Lions, the obvious play is the outright market at 8/19.00. But I'd argue there's a more rewarding route into the same opinion.

Take Bellingham to win the Golden Ball at 20/121.00.

The award isn't simply handed to the best player. It's won by the player who delivers defining moments for the winning team. If England get their second star, Bellingham is almost certain to be front and centre of every big occasion.

Lionel Messi is the obvious standout in the market at 10/34.33 with him in dazzling form for an Argentina team who are now odds-on to make the semi-finals such is their uncomplicated bracket.

But there is lots of football still to be played. Narratives can change quickly at World Cups. This is now the business end. What has gone before in the groups is forgotten.

Bellingham also possesses something that's difficult to quantify but incredibly important in these awards - star power.

We've already seen evidence of it. His player-of-the-match award against Ghana raised a few eyebrows because, by his own lofty standards, it wasn't anywhere near his best performance. Yet his reputation, influence and ability to command attention still saw him walk away with the trophy.

That's exactly the sort of profile you want when betting on an individual honour decided by human judgement. 

Rather than taking 8/19.00 about England navigating four more knockout matches, I'd rather back the player at more than twice that price most likely to define that journey.

---

June 23: England 0-0 Ghana Reaction

Guehi's magnificent fouls won

Some players develop new strings to their bow when they make the jump to an elite club. For Marc Guehi, one underrated addition to his game since arriving at Manchester City appears to be his ability to draw contact and win fouls.

The numbers suggest there is substance behind it. What we saw from Guehi for England against Ghana was a sheer masterclass in how to win fouls. He drew a magnificent seven of them. A monstrous figure in that metric.

And he backed that up with another two won in the win over Panama, which was availible to back at 5/42.25 with Betfair.

The trend that has been building for months

In his final eight games of the domestic season, Guehi won 16 fouls - a rock-solid average of two per match. That's not a sample size to ignore, especially when we're dealing with a market that often lags behind emerging trends.

The eye test backs it up, too. Guehi is far more comfortable carrying the ball into traffic than he was 12 months ago. He invites challenges, shields possession well and has become increasingly clever at using defenders' momentum against them.

This isn't a case of chasing a one-off performance. The trend has been building for months and, if the prices remain rooted in older data, there could be value in backing Guehi to continue drawing contact at a healthy rate for England across this tournament.

---

Bookmark our World Cup blog and get tips every day

---