Lewis Jones' England World Cup Notebook: Marc Guehi's foul-winning numbers are impossible to ignore

Guehi's magnificent seven fouls won

Some players develop new strings to their bow when they make the jump to an elite club. For Marc Guehi, one underrated addition to his game since arriving at Manchester City appears to be his ability to draw contact and win fouls.

The numbers suggest there is substance behind it. What we saw from Guehi for England against Ghana was a sheer masterclass in how to win fouls. He drew a magnificent seven of them. A monstrous figure in that metric.

My favourite player-based betting market available with Betfair is the 'To Be Fouled' line, which focuses purely on how many fouls a player wins during a match. In simple terms, you're betting on whether a player will be fouled a certain number of times. If the line is set at two or more, for example, you're backing the player to be fouled at least twice for the bet to land.

It's a market that can often fly under the radar compared to shots, assists or cards, but there are some strong angles to exploit when you identify players who regularly carry the ball, receive possession under pressure or actively invite contact. It's one of those markets where understanding player roles and tactical trends can give you a genuine edge.

We have one here with Guehi in an England shirt.

When are England's Group L Games?

See below for the dates and times of Englands matches in the group stage of the tournament:

Read Lewis' World Cup notebook #1 uncovering a Declan Rice betting angle

The trend that has been building for months

In his final eight games of the domestic season, Guehi won 16 fouls - a rock-solid average of two per match. That's not a sample size to ignore, especially when we're dealing with a market that often lags behind emerging trends.

The eye test backs it up, too. Guehi is far more comfortable carrying the ball into traffic than he was 12 months ago. He invites challenges, shields possession well and has become increasingly clever at using defenders' momentum against them.

We saw that first hand against Ghana. Interestingly, the 3+ fouls won line was available at 5/16.00 pre-match with Betfair, which was very generous given the direction of travel in his numbers.

This isn't a case of chasing a one-off performance. The trend has been building for months and, if the prices remain rooted in older data, there could be value in backing Guehi to continue drawing contact at a healthy rate for England across this tournament.

What do England need to do to win Group L?

FIFA changed the group stage tiebreaker for the 2026 World Cup. Previously, goal difference would be the first metric used but that has switched to head-to-head record. With England and Ghana playing out a 0-0 draw the head-to-head will be no good should both teams finish level on points after the third and final group game.

The next metric that will be used as a tiebreaker is goal difference. England, thanks to a 4-2 defeat of Croatia coupled with Ghana only beating Panama 1-0, are ahead by one goal in the group.

Therefore, if England match Ghana's result against Croatia it will be the Three Lions who go through as group winners. If Ghana better England's result by one goal it will still be England as the next metric is goals scored.

So Ghana need to win while England drop points or run up a big score against Croatia. That is unlikely which explains why England are as short as 1/101.10 to win the group.

Bookmark our World Cup blog and get tips every day