• Vance fav for 2028 but will Trump tariffs damage GOP?

• US president slammed by opponents at home and abroad

• Trump approval rating drops but Dems remain unpopular

US Election 2028 odds after Trump tariffs

The next US election odds for 2028 almost reached parity on the Betfair Exchange after Donald Trump unveiled his controversial trade tariffs. 

The Republicans are 1.9620/21 favourites to be the winning party while The Democrats are 2.0621/20. 

Trump's tariffs are a major moment in his second presidency and, depending on their impact, the Republicans could suffer the consequences both at the American midterm elections in 2026 and when the White House is up for grabs in 2028. 

The tariffs are fresh import taxes on goods being imported to America which critics say will spark a global trade war. The UK was hit with a 10% charge.

In the next president betting on the Exchange, JD Vance continues to be the favourite at 4.67/2.

It is no surprise to see the vice president at the top of the next election market, just three months into Trump's second term, and the odds are a reminder that a lot is likely to happen between now and November 2028. 

That said, US elections are enormous betting events and the market for 2028 is already popular, with more than £237,000 wagered on the next president. 

If you think there is a chance Trump will be impeached before then, check out the latest odds here.

Trump's rating dips and Musk steps back

Trump's tariffs are a gamble and were greeted with criticism from leaders around the world, including Canadian president Mark Carney, the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and many more.

Of more conceren to Trump will be how the tariffs are received at home. This week a poll by Reuters/Ipsos showed his approval rating fell to 43%, the lowest since his return to office.

Americans taking part in the poll criticised Trump's tariffs and his administration's handling of information about a military strike in Yemen. The latter refers to a leak of classified information to a journalist who was accidentally invited to a group chat involving senior administration offiicials, including Vance.

It has been a busy time for Trump's administration, with Elon Musk yesterday announcing that he was "stepping back" from his role in the US government. This followed rumours that other members of the administration were unhappy with Musk's unpredictable behaviour. 

Newsom, Buttigieg and Shapiro leading Democrats for 2028

The Democrats are unpopular and divided. Chuck Schumer, their leader in the Senate, faced calls to resign after he voted with Trump and the Republicans recently to avoid a government shutdown. 

Schumer said of Trump's tariffs today, "He's raising prices through the roof," and vowed that his party would fight them "tooth and nail". 

Opponents of Trump would be thrilled to see the Democrats show some fight and as their critics say there has not been enough so far. The party establishment continues to reel from Kamala Harris's defeat in the US election last November. 

Gavin Newsom 17.5, the governor of California, is the shortest price of any Democrat in the next president market on the Betfair Exchange. His response to the Trump presidency so far has been to launch a bizarre podcast in which he conducts pandering discussions with figures from across the American political divide, such as Steve Bannon.

Pete Buttigieg 19.5, who was in the running for the Democratic nomination in 2016, comes next in the market, just ahead of the Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro 20.019/1. The latter was expected to be Harris's running-mate before she chose Tim Walz who is 130.00129/1 for 2028.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, meanwhile, is 24.023/1 after hitting the road with Bernie Sanders to hold a series of popular rallies in the places which voted for Trump in 2024.

Betting.Betfair is where you can read the best politics betting coverage in 2025.

Donald Trump's victory in last November's US election meant that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections, so the markets are a valuable way of gauging which way the electorate is leaning.

Now read more politics betting articles and stay up to date with the latest odds