UK Politics: Labour pull clear of Tories and Reform in next election betting

• Labour are election favourites as Reform drift

• Farage still favourite to be the next prime minister

• Badenoch could leave as Tory leader in 2026 says market

Betfair Exchange punters backed Labour to win the next general election in a sign that divisions on the right of UK politics are damaging both the Conservatives and Reform. 

In just over a month, Labour have shortened from 2.747/4 to 2.3611/8 while the Tories have come in to 3.412/5, overtaking Reform. 

The increasing popularity of Labour and the drift on Reform is the big story of recent weeks when it comes to the next election betting. Nigel Farage's party have drifted from 2.915/8 to their current price of 3.814/5.

Farage is the 4.94/1 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister, a shorter price than Badenoch 7.06/1.

Reform chaos boosts both main parties in the betting

For a party that had no MPs this time last year, Reform are still a short price to win the next election. But the recent Betfair Exchange market movement does indicate that some bettors are cooling on Reform's chances of making a serious impact.

They have been making headlines for the wrong reasons, such as divisions in Reform over Farage's leadership and the recent suspension of Rupert Lowe, the MP for Great Yarmouth, who was referred to police over allegations he made "threats of physical violence" against party chairman Zia Yusuf, which Lowe denies.

It is only a couple of months since Lowe was positioning himself as a potential successor to Farage as leader. 

This week, Reform welcomed 29 councillors, who have defected from other parties, and Farage hopes that will help his party regain some of the momentum it has lost.

Badenoch 3/1 to leave as Tory leader this year

Badenoch will hope Reform's problems reduce the risk that her party will lose council seats and parliamentary constituencies to them. But she is still under pressure and the shortest price in the Betfair Exchange market on when her leadership of the Tories will end is 2026 2.265/4. You can get 4.1 on Badenoch leaving this year.

The next general election is scheduled for 2029. Badenoch is 3.613/5 to still be the leader when it takes place but to get there she will probably need to serve longer than the last four leaders - Theresa May (2016-19), Boris Johnson (2019-22), Liz Truss (2022), Rishi Sunak (2022-24) of the Conservative party managed.  

Has Starmer been lucky again?

From 2020 to 2024, Keir Starmer was in some ways the luckiest opposition leader in living memory. Thanks to the Conservatives' implosion under three prime ministers in quick succession, the Labour leader had only to maintain party discipline (easier said than done, admittedly), make modest policy proposals and wear his tie straight, before voters handed him the biggest parliamentary majority since Tony Blair's era.

Recent events indicate that Starmer has been lucky again. For all that he has the unenviable task of managing Britain's relationship with an unpredictable US administration, and volatile international situation, at home Starmer has been gifted a weak Tory opposition and a Reform party that looks increasingly amateurish. 

He is currently drawing flack for his goverment's plans to reform welfare. But the lack of coherent opposition from the other parties means Starmer and Labour look stronger than they did in the autumn when bettors were backing Reform to win the next election.

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