US Election 2028: JD Vance favourite to succeed Donald Trump as president

• Betfair Exchange has correctly called 23 of 25 major elections

• Get the US election 2028 odds on who will be president after Trump

• VP-elect JD Vance is favourite and Gavin Newsom is leading Democrat

Who will be the US president after Donald Trump? After the Betfair Exchange correctly predicted the outcome of this week's US election, the market on the 2028 race for the White House is live and punters are already betting.

Trump's victory over Kamala Harris means the Exchange politics markets have made the right call in 23 of the last 25 major elections. So it may pay to note what the new market is telling us about four years from now.

Who starts as the favourite to win the presidency when Donald Trump completes his second term?

Vance favourite to succeed Trump

Trump's running-mate JD Vance, who will become the youngest ever vice president in January, is the favourite in new election 2028 market on the Betfair Exchange. The 40-year-old only became a senator in 2022 and is on a rapid rise that could take him all the way to the top job.

Since Trump's victory on Tuesday, Vance has been described as the future of MAGA and his doubters in the media have been lambasted for underestimating the vice president-elect's steely ambition.

Vice presidents have mixed fortunes when running for president, with Harris and Al Gore among the losers, George HW Bush and Biden among the winners.

Vance is 4.216/5 to win the US election in 2028 which will be the first without Trump as a candidate since 2012. Vance's chances will depend to a large degree on how Trump fares in his second term. Will his be a popular presidency? If not, Vance would carry the taint of incumbency in 2028, the way Harris did in 2024.

Others on the Republican side include Ron DeSantis 24.023/1, who stood against Trump for the nomination this year, and Tucker Carlson 44.043/1.

Newsom is leading Democrat in 2028 betting

On the Democratic side, early contenders include former-first lady Michelle Obama 13.5 who had some supporters in the market in 2024.

California governor Gavin Newsom 13.012/1 is the shorest price of any Democrat and may be eyeing his party's nomination for 2028. Earlier this year, when Biden was facing calls to stand aside, Newsom was backed by bettors who thought he had a chance of succeeding the current president.

Newsom was a Biden loyalist, however, insisting that the current president was right to seek a second term. Until of course Biden withdrew and it was too late for anyone other than Harris to run. In an open field, with no incumbent, Newsom may be more ruthless about putting himself forward.

There is, however, a lot to happen before 2028 and Trump's second term is sure to be eventful. Contenders to succeed him will come and go.

Amid the noise that will inevitably accompany the next presidency, the candidate to win back the White House for the Democrats may already be quietly working away. It could be someone who is little known to those outside of American politics.

Twenty years ago, when George W. Bush won his second term, the Democrats looked lost and potentially facing years in the wilderness, just as they do now. Barack Obama, who very few people had heard of in 2004, emerged a few years later, won the next election and the next one.

Similarly, in 2012 the Republicans looked finished after Mitt Romney's defeat. Four years later, a certain leftfield candidate shook the world with his unlikely victory and put the party back in power.

The point is that US politics is full of surprises. Somewhere out there, ambitious American politicians in both main parties are already thinking about 2028. Keep an eye on the Betfair Exchange market to see who they turn out to be and read Betting.Betfair for the latest updates.

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