US Election: Trump favourite in Pennsylvania but swing state is on knife-edge

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"If we win Pennsylvania, we win the whole thing," Donald Trump told his supporters a few months ago and, with the former-president 4/51.80 (a 55% chance) on the Betfair Exchange to triumph in the Keystone State, the signs are that he will do exactly that.

There are 19 electoral college votes - more than in any other swing state - up for grabs in Pennsylvania and victory there would tip the balance towards either candidate.

The Betfair market gives Trump the advantage - as it does in four other swing states - but there is no room for complacency. The Betfair Exchange odds show that Pennsylvania is in the balance on election day and the polls put Trump and Harris neck and neck there.

Election day odds of 5/42.25 for a Kamala Harris victory means it would be no surprise if Pennsylvania were to stay Democrat blue at this election. Joe Biden won it four years ago, with Harris on the ticket as his vice presidential candidate, and her team believe they can win there and take the White House in the process.

Trump won Pennsylvania in 2016, becoming the first Republican to do so since George H.W Bush in 1988, and the 79-year-old is determined to turn it red again.

Harris and Trump fight for votes in Pennsylvania

This year, the Democrats were the favourites to win the state before the market flipped in favour of Trump last month. That was part of the Trump juggernaut in the betting which stalled at the weekend before mounting a recovery in the 24 hours before election day when £28m was bet on him winning a second term.

Harris spent the entirety of the final day of campaigning in Pennsylvania and she will hope that her commitment to winning the state persuades any undecided voters to back her. She enjoyed one of her best moments of the election in Pennsylvania, trouncing Trump in their one live debate, which took place in Philadelphia.

As well as having more electoral college votes than the other swing states, Pennsylvania is also home to many blue collar voters. That is a demographic that Harris has been keen to reach, having watched Hillary Clinton lose them to Trump eight years ago.

A potential blue wall, which would see Harris winning Michigan and Wisconsin (she is favourite in both) is integral to her path to the White House.

Whatever happens, it is sure to be dramatic night on the Betfair Exchange, as Sam Rosbottom explained:

"A whopping £187m has been wagered on the outcome of this election in total so far, but we're just getting started.

"As voting closes and the results start to trickle in, we're expecting even more money to come in on the market and the odds to move further, one way or the other.

"Four years ago, a staggering £130 million was bet in the 12 hours once the polls closed in the US, and we're bracing ourselves for a bumper night tonight as this unprecedented race to the White House comes to a crescendo."

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