US Politics

Next US Election: Vance favourite for 2028 on Trump's second inauguration day

JD Vance and Donald Trump
Vance is the favourite to win in 2028 when Donald Trump's second term as US president ends

As Donald Trump begins his second term as US president Betfair's 2028 election winner market is already gathering pace and odds make for compelling reading...


Donald Trump will be sworn into office for his second term as US president on Monday but Betfair Exchange punters are already looking forward to the next race for the White House.

As the Biden era ends and the second Trump era begins, it is the incoming US vice president JD Vance who Betfair Exhange punters make the favourite to win the top job in 2028.

US presidents can only serve a maximum of two-terms and, with Trump having already served four years from 2017 to 2021, he will not be able to run in 2028.

Will JD Vance be the next US president?

At 3.8514/5 Vance by far the shortest price of any candidate in the market. After a stuttering start to his VP candidacy, which prompted rumours that Trump could replace Vance on his presidential ticket, the 40-year-old became an asset to the Republican campaign.

He is ambitious and how he fares as VP for the next four years could determine whether he gets the chance to succeed Trump.

Biden was vice president before he won the Oval Office and so was George W Bush. It doesn't always follow that four years as VP is followed by winning the presidency. Just ask the outgoing Kamala Harris who served four years under Biden and was defeated by Trump in November.

Donald Trump black cap.jpg

Trump's previous vice president Mike Pence, meanwhile, fell out with his boss spectacularly, as did many people who worked in the first Trump White House.

Nobody can be sure what Trump has in store for his second term but the next four years in Washington are certain to be eventful.

Ron DeSantis 26.025/1, who was once favourite to win in 2024 but failed to get anywhere near beating Trump to the nomination, is the next shortest price of any Republican after Vance.

Shapiro is leading Democrat for US election 2028

Over the next couple of years it is likely that many Democrats will be talked up as their party's potential saviour. After Harris's emphatic defeat to Trump, which saw her fare even worse than Hillary Clinton in 2016, the party is on the lookout for a candidate who can beat the Republicans.

Who does the market think could be in contention when it comes time to elect America's next president in three years and 10 months from now?

Josh Shapiro 16.5 is the favourite. The governor of Pennsylvania was widely tipped to be Harris's pick for VP before she shocked bettors opting for Tim Walz.

Having the 51-year-old as their candidate would help the Democrats win back the swing state of Pennsylvania (you remember all that talk of Pennsylvania in the run-up to election day in November, don't you?).

Then there is Gavin Newsom 22.021/1 who some commentators wanted to see succeed Biden as the candidate last summer. Newsom is currently in the news as the Governor of California and at odds with Trump after the incoming president criticised the state's preparedness for the devastating wild fires in Los Angeles.

Pete Buttigieg 25.024/1 is next in the market. Still just 43, he already has plenty of name recognition from his run in 2020 when he won the Iowa Caucus before bowing out later as Biden emerged as the leading candidate.

Gretchen Whitmer 29.028/1 is another one to watch and was previously tipped as potential candidate by Betting.Betfair politics expert Paul Krishnamurty.

The next four years will be bumpy, potential candidates for 2028 will come and go, but one thing is for sure - Betting.Betfair will bring you the latest odds as the next race for the White House takes shape.


Betting.Betfair is where you can read the best politics betting coverage in 2025.

Trump's victory in November's US election meant that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections, so the markets are a valuable way of gauging which way the electorate is leaning.


Now read more politics betting articles for the latest odds on big stories


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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.