All of this drama will further cement the image of the Mad King, completely detached from - and increasingly abandoned by - the machine operating around him. Fire and Fury will not, in itself, destroy the Trump presidency. Michael Woolf has merely created the narrative that will accompany its implosion. The question of whether Trump is mentally unstable and unfit to serve will dominate politics in 2018. With each Mueller-generated or self-inflicted spike, it will become more pertinent. Each Trump response will continue to fuel the fire.
Michael Wolff is a total loser who made up stories in order to sell this really boring and untruthful book. He used Sloppy Steve Bannon, who cried when he got fired and begged for his job. Now Sloppy Steve has been dumped like a dog by almost everyone. Too bad! https://t.co/mEeUhk5ZV9? Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 6, 2018
Michael Wolff is a total loser who made up stories in order to sell this really boring and untruthful book. He used Sloppy Steve Bannon, who cried when he got fired and begged for his job. Now Sloppy Steve has been dumped like a dog by almost everyone. Too bad! https://t.co/mEeUhk5ZV9
What might the tipping point, to turn senior Republicans, be? Mass Cabinet resignations? Charges filed against the Trump family? The prospect of Congressional candidates across the land marching towards defeat, tied to a toxic president in mid-terms that have effectively become a referendum on him?
All are highly plausible but we can only guess the timing and means of departure. Perhaps it takes a beating at the mid-terms - for which I must reiterate advice to back the Democrats to win a majority in the House of Representatives - to kickstart a GOP revolt in 2019. Perhaps a Mueller development or new disaster forces a sudden resignation? It could happen overnight.
Opposing Trump for 2020 remains the best bet
That uncertainty is precisely why I've preferred playing the 2020 election markets. Trump remains awful value at 3.55/2 to win a second term. That would involve passing three hurdles - survive a full-term, win the GOP nomination and then win an election for which he will likely be a big outsider. Opposing him for 2020 - by which time he will be 74 - is a vastly superior option compared to exit date markets.
For those, I have only one live bet on 2018 at 6.05/1, recommended last year and now a little shorter at 4.57/2. I'm happy to hold on to it, in the hope that the tipping point - or at least serious speculation about it - emerges this year. The madness of the last two will not become business as usual. Yes, Trump has been wrongly written off before but there were always plenty prepared to give this experiment a chance. As that number diminishes, normality will eventually resume. This is the real world, not Hollywood.
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