UK Politics: Is Boris Johnson destroying the Conservative Party?

Paul Krishnamurty
06 October 2021

Has Boris plotted a bad course for the Tories?

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Boris Johnson is enjoying a good media day but Paul Krishnamurty says he is setting the Conservatives on a road to long-term ruin and could pave the way for a coalition government

"Even some Tory-leaning, Brexit-voting economic commentators are beginning to rumble that this isn't the party or agenda they are aligned to."

Party conference season is an acquired taste. For party members, activists, Westminster-based journalists, lobbyists and PR-types, the hottest ticket in town.

Personally, after 25 years of watching them, I'd rather be outside the bubble than listen to carefully calibrated speeches to appease this or that faction; soundbites for TV news few will notice or remember; policy announcements that never materialise; completely false versions of history. I can catch up from distance, if necessary.

I was in the air during Keir Starmer's speech last week. Upon landing, it was no surprise to learn that Labour's left found it turgid, vague, uninspiring. Or that mainstream media pundits gushed over the death of the far-left and imminent return of New Labour. It was equally no surprise to see virtually no movement in the polls.

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 39% (-1)
LAB: 35% (-2)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 6% (-)

via @OpiniumResearch, 29 Sep - 01 Oct
Chgs. w/ 16 Sep
? Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 2, 2021

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-1)
LAB: 37% (+2)
LDEM: 10% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)
REFUK: 3% (-)

via @RedfieldWilton, 04 Oct
Chgs. w/ 27 Sephttps://t.co/knnunzBusc
? Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 5, 2021

Westminster voting intention:

CON: 40% (-)
LAB: 35% (-)
LDEM: 9% (-)
GRN: 4% (-1)

via @SavantaComRes, 01 - 03 Oct
Chgs. w/ 19 Sep
? Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 6, 2021

Likewise, the betting is largely unmoved. The Conservatives have drifted slightly to 1.548/15 to win Most Seats at the next general election. No Overall Majority remains favourite at around 2.245/4, just ahead of Conservative Majority at 2.466/4. Boris Johnson remains 1.182/11 to survive as Tory leader until at least July 2022, 1.855/6 until at least 2024.

It seems bettors share my disinclination to over-react to such set-piece events. Boris Johnson has just delivered another trademark upbeat, amusing speech that won't stand up to any serious scrutiny. I doubt that will move the needle either and concur with the analysis of this leading psephologist.

Today is a day to ignore confident predictions about the issues that will decide the outcome of the next general election. We face huge uncertainty and considerable economic headwinds going into the winter...
? Will Jennings (@drjennings) October 6, 2021

I would refer to the general trend towards entrenched polarisation and partisanship seen here since the EU referendum, and sweeping the Western world. Two blocks of voters, divided by demographics and cultural values, are not likely to cross over very much and especially not on the basis of a few speeches.

The bigger questions concerns what might move them, and whether age-old truisms still apply. That what real world experience shapes politics and elections.

My first political memory was Margaret Thatcher winning the 1979 election. The context shaped politics for decades. The imagery from that crisis - The Sun headline "Crisis, What Crisis?' mocking Labour PM Jim Callaghan, bins being left unemptied - defined it. Labour were blamed for the Winter of Discontent and winning again under Tony Blair required 18 years passing and a drastic rebrand.

I've long felt that voter opinion swings on rare, seminal moments. Black Wednesday in 1992 destroyed the Conservatives' reputation for economic competence for a generation. The Iraq war destroyed trust in Tony Blair. The 2008 financial crisis destroyed Labour's economic reputation.

It feels like we are living through a similarly seismic shock. Food and petrol shortages, spiking energy prices, soaring Covid deaths since 'Freedom Day'. It hasn't affected voter behaviour so far, but what if the future is one crisis after another? A perpetual state of emergency. Will that alter the perfectly distributed 37-42% of Tory voters?

I do believe that perpetual crisis is upon us, and find it hard to believe it won't affect those Tory voters. They are overwhelmingly elderly and therefore on fixed incomes. Tory policies kicking the poor, or students, don't directly affect them. Inflation, especially energy prices and council tax, will.

Then there are other cornerstones of any Tory coalition. Farmers, forced to cull their livestock and leave fruit and veg to rot in fields. Employers, struggling to find staff and facing wage-hikes. Businesses, under attack from government ministers. One Tory MP, unbelievably, signalled intent to go after the supermarkets.

Well, it's a theory pic.twitter.com/hNasXCxR5g
? Jessica Elgot (@jessicaelgot) October 3, 2021

Even some Tory-leaning, Brexit-voting economic commentators are beginning to rumble that this isn't the party or agenda they are aligned to. Follow @GeorgeTrefgane, for example - he doesn't allow retweets or embeds - talking up today's shocking surge in natural gas prices as something that could bring down Johnson. Equally, David Smith's economic analysis in The Times. Or the Daily Mail front page.

Always worth paying attention to the Mail when it turns on the Tories. It knows the temper of conservative England better than the Conservative Party pic.twitter.com/qne5LPP668
? Nick Cohen (@NickCohen4) October 5, 2021

If this analysis about the real world and emerging Tory policy agenda is right, what happens to these voters? I doubt many will cross over to Labour, but the more liberal-minded among them may prefer the Lib Dems.

Even in defeat, Labour win more working age voters. The Tory coalition is unsustainable in the long-term on those demographics, and can't afford to fray. I don't believe rhetoric about higher wages will pay dividends, so long as they keep the minimum wage and other conditions low.

Short-term, such tactics will make it easier for Keir Starmer to mobilise anti-Tory tactical voting. Those polls show a sizeable Green vote, which Labour has squeezed late at recent elections. Long-term, it may prove impossible to rebuild their coalition, having alienated so many voters, especially the young.

To return to the betting, now might be a good time to bet against another Tory majority. I'll be very surprised if they can find a coalition partner in this climate and suspect we are heading towards a coalition/confidence arrangement between Labour, Lib Dems and SNP.

What is happening right now is unprecedented. It will take more than tub-thumping conference speeches, ever-reversing rhetoric and silly memes to deal with the challenges ahead.

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

For each person you successfully refer to Betfair, we'll give you £10 in CASH when they stake £10 or more on the Sportsbook, Exchange or Casino. T&Cs apply.