Next General Election: One year on from Labour landslide Reform are favourites

• Reform are favourites to win most seats at next election

• Odds point to hung parliament in Westminster 

• Farage favourite to succeed Starmer as prime minister

One year on from Labour's landslide victory at the 2024 UK general election, Reform are the favourites to win the most seats the next time the country goes to the polls.

Reform are 2.447/5 on the Betfair Exchange and, even though Labour are not far behind in the market at 2.56/4, it is still a concerning state of affairs for Keir Starmer. 

The Conservatives are 5.79/2 and continue to struggle in opposition under Kemi Badenoch's leadership. They are evens to ditch her next year.

Hung parliament at next election is odds-on

The prices quoted above refer to which party will win the most seats at the next general election. The market on whether any party can win the 330 required for a parliamentary majory, which allows them to form a goverment without the help of any other party, points to a hung parliament.

No over all majority is 1.9210/11 and Labour 4.3100/30 are the shortest price of any party to win a majority. They have work to do if they are to achieve that. This week, 49 Labour MPs rebelled as a revised version of the government's welfare bill was passed.

At prime minister's questions, the chancellor Rachel Reeves was in tears over what a spokesperson later said was a "personal matter". Starmer insists Reeves will continue as chancellor but the uncertainty, so early in his premiership, is damaging. Critics say the Labour leader had a plan for winning last year's election but not for governing the country.

Farage fav for next PM as Reform build momentum

The next election picture is far from clear, as you would expect when it is not scheduled to take place until 2029, and there could be plenty of changes in parties' fortunes before then. But the momentum is with Reform.

Their leader Nigel Farage is 3.7511/4 the favourite to succeed Starmer as the next prime minister. The shortest price of any Labour MP is deputy leader Angela Rayner 8.615/2 while Badenoch is 13.525/2. 

Let's remember, though, that it has not been a straightforward 12 months for Reform. One of their MPs, Rupert Lowe, resigned and the party was divided over Farage's leadership. They are chronically incapable of not falling out with each other - a tendency that has surfaced among the American right too with Donald Trump and Elon Musk's recent clashes.

Reform did, though, go back up to five MPs after winning the Runcorn by-election in May, taking the seat from Labour in what was seen as a bellwether vote in the north west constituency. Still, the newly-elected MP Sarah Pochin used her first question in parliament to ask Starmer if he would ban the burka. Reform's chairman Zia Yusuf distanced himself from the MP's remarks then resigned from the party. Two days, later he reversed his decision to resign.

The chaotic indicent reminded the public that Reform is a divided party and raised questions about their suitability to govern. Can they become more disciplined before the next general election, as they come under more scrutiny? The answer to this question, and whether Starmer's government can start making a palpable difference to voters' lives, could go a long way towards deciding which party wins in 2029.

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